Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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The “Bible of Shenanigans” will NOT be created by Justen Zhang and/or Kuba Stechly in a form that contains at least 50 high quality shenanigans by June 1 2015. ( 90% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by from3004 on 2015-07-31.
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I will learn Esperanto to a conversational level by July 31st 2015. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2015-07-31; judged wrong by from3004 on 2015-07-31.
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I'll write a prediction every day for the next week (Sat-Fri) ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-07-31; judged right by Nikolas on 2015-07-31.
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Greece will cease using the Euro as its currency. ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-07-12; known on 2015-07-31; judged wrong by quanticle on 2015-07-31.
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I will finish the Couch to 5K program inside of the next 2.5 weeks (given I'm now in week 7) ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-07-03; known on 2015-07-21; judged wrong by taryneast on 2015-07-30.
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Will finish Mars story ( 15% confidence )
Created by LordDenton on 2015-07-26; known on 2015-07-29; judged wrong by LordDenton on 2015-07-29.
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Acabaré el libro de Grimm y empezaré y acabaré el siguiente libro ( 70% confidence )
Created by acradis on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-07-28; judged wrong by acradis on 2015-07-28.
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I will follow up with my plans for the day (Meeting, coursera and 5-min exercises) ( 90% confidence )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-27; known on 2015-07-28; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-07-28.
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I will get at least 7 wins in this mage arena run ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PurpleDango on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-07-30; judged right by PurpleDango on 2015-07-25.
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Ryan will finish the Drakon cluster (meaning that all parts are connected and there is an operating system running) by July 12 at midnight PST. ( 30% confidence )
Created by PurpleDango on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-07-13; judged wrong by PurpleDango on 2015-07-25.
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PubMed's comment system will be shut down before 2015. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-10-25; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-24.
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I'm using AT&T ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-07-23; known on 2015-07-23; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-07-23.
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X will not exist anymore as of 1st September 2015. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Robert on 2015-03-08; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Robert on 2015-07-23.
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HP MOR : the bargain between Voldemort and Lily Potter on the night of his demise is actually a magical ritual which will prevent Voldemort from killing harry ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by claz on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by Robert on 2015-07-23.
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Meteor summer hackathon will have over 200 applications ( 65% confidence )
Created by yaliceme on 2015-07-23; known on 2015-07-24; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2015-07-23.
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1.0 in ComInG ( 50% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-16; known on 2015-08-16; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-23.
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2.0 or better in ComInG ( 80% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-16; known on 2015-08-16; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-23.
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When my Kindle Voyage ( imported through US friends to avoid an Amazon shipping restriction ) arrives , all functionality including 3G will work here in Norway ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by silacoid on 2015-07-18; known on 2015-07-30; judged right by silacoid on 2015-07-21.
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Clean up data at LIN next monday ( 90% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-16; known on 2015-07-21; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-20.
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Finished and sent off BA by next Monday. ( 70% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-16; known on 2015-07-20; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-20.
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Greece reaches a deal with creditors including debt restructuring without the obligation to reduce public spending ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-07-20.
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M will take Geom1 reexam. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by adri on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-07-16; judged wrong by adri on 2015-07-19.
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Yvain will be fired (or asked to resign) from his Psychiatrist position due to breach of confidentiality in the next 2 years. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-07-18; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2015-07-19.
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Sub-saharan Africa's HDI to be 0.472 or higher in 2014 (0.463 in 2011). (Source: http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/tables/) ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2015-12-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-07-17.
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Mass shooting occurs in the US before year end (>5 deaths or casualties) ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-07-17.
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Mass shooting occurs in the US within one month with >5 deaths or casualties ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-07-07; known on 2015-08-07; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-07-17.
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The June 2015 TOP500 supercomputer rankings will include 4 or more computers in the top 10 with GPUs available for processing ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-05; known on 2015-08-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-07-16.
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DAX above 10000 until mid of July 2015 ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2015-06-16; known on 2015-07-15; judged right by Chri on 2015-07-15.
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The greek banks will not open unrestricted on monday 2015-07-13 ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2015-07-10; known on 2015-07-13; judged right by silacoid on 2015-07-13.
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ECB to withdraw Greek ELA before the end of the week. Withdraw means complete end to ELA. ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-06; known on 2015-07-11; judged wrong by modulus on 2015-07-11.
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I'll miss the train. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-07-10; known on 2015-07-11; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-07-10.
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Ellen Pao will no longer be CEO of Reddit by September 1, 2015 ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-07-09; known on 2015-09-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-07-10.
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Ellen Pao will no longer be CEO of Reddit by September 1, 2015 ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-07-09; known on 2015-09-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-07-10.
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Ellen Pao will no longer be CEO of Reddit by September 1, 2015 ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-07-09; known on 2015-09-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-07-10.
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The power will have been switched on at my new place by this evening ( 55% confidence )
Created by taryneast on 2015-07-08; known on 2015-07-08; judged right by taryneast on 2015-07-08.
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The power at my new place will have been swicthed on by Friday ( 90% confidence )
Created by taryneast on 2015-07-08; known on 2015-07-10; judged right by taryneast on 2015-07-08.
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Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-07-07; known on 2015-07-08; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-07-08.
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There will be significant improvements to the UX of this site related to ability to browse predictions and not get confused by what means what, and what's AJAX or not. ( 30% confidence )
Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by TeMPOraL on 2015-07-07.
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PredictionBook will be successful in years to come ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-05-25; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-07-06.
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Bitcoin will trade at greater than $1000 USD for a at least a week (contiguous) between 2014-03-14 (price now/then ~ $635 USD) and 2015-01-01. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by anonym on 2014-03-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-07-06.
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Fed will keep rates low before June 30, 2015 even if unemployment < 6.5% or inflation > 2.5% in the meantime. ( 65% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-13; known on 2015-06-30; judged right by kuudes on 2015-07-06.
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Will google's new javascript replacemant, “Dart”, have significant use in the next 3 years ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by drpowell on 2012-10-16; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by drpowell on 2015-10-23.
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“Within five years the Chinese government will have embarked on a major eugenics program designed to mass produce super-geniuses. (40%)” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2015-10-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-07.
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Ebola will be considered endemic in a year. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2014-10-14; known on 2015-10-14; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12.
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Ebola has killed fewer than 1000 people in the US or Canada by November 2015 ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by LogicalOxymoron on 2014-11-22; known on 2015-11-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-01.
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I will meet up with X this week ( 15% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-07-01; known on 2015-07-06; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-07-06.
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I will meet up with X this week ( 15% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-07-01; known on 2015-07-06; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-07-06.
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Greece will vote “no” on the Sunday referendum ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-07-06; judged right by modulus on 2015-07-05.
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The target of Wikileaks's major American bank leak will be Bank of America ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-07-05.
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World HDI for 2014 to be 0.690 or higher (0.682 in 2011). ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2015-12-01; judged right by btrettel on 2015-07-04.