PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy because she was a Horcrux ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy to send a message to the Death Eaters to stop attacking Order of the Phoenix relatives ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy is dead ( 72% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

The SMALL REU will reject me. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by azax1 on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-02-14; judged right by azax1 on 2015-03-11.

HPMOR: By the end of the story, it will turn out that the troll actually killed Hermione. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by Mathias Zaman on 2014-11-19; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by Mathias Zaman on 2015-03-11.

HP MoR: Sirius is not in Azkaban, and his replacement is Fudge ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2014-03-10; known on 2015-03-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-10.

HP MoR: James Potter, Sirius Black, and Peter Pettigrew were Animagi. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by 75th on 2013-09-17; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-10.

I will test the appropriate n-rep maxima for all the Ice Cream exercises I can do this for at the gym by 11:00 (in about six hours) ( 55% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-10.

I see S at P ( 25% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-06; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-10.

Scott Aaronson will reply to at least one of my questions via email or mention it in a blogpost by July 1. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-09; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10.

Dumbledore is the mastermind behind the troll plot. ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2015-03-09.

The U.S. economy will not be back to 6% or less unemployment until 2018. ( 60% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-18; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-03-07.

There will be less than 20 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.

There will be less than 500 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.

There will be less than 5000 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.

The Newsweek reporter will be fired within a year. ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2014-03-07; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-07.

In first semester exams for my third year, I will get 70% or higher ( 99% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-14; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-06.

CBP sighted at fewest one lecture for at fewest four of my courses ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-06.

FMK will claim that she has never smoked in her life ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-06; known on 2015-03-06; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-06.

FMK will claim that she has never smoked in her life ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-06; known on 2015-03-06; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-06.

FMK will claim that she has never smoked in her life ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-06; known on 2015-03-06; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-06.

We'll have another dot-com boom by 2016 (NASDAQ reaching 5k) ( 50% confidence; 9 wagers; 16 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-10; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-03-06.

ST Enterprise: In S3.09, the horse they take on loan at the start of the episode dies. ( 40% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-05-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2015-03-05.

Eliezer will accept an answer involving Harry secretly partially transfiguring something while his wand is pointed at the ground in such a way that Voldemort doesn't notice until too late. ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JohnWittle on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-05.

The longest time spent in labour by a person as according to that post, given Brienne's guess was off by a factor of ten and assuming the question is as I interpret it, was (is if ongoing) 50 years or less. ( 95% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-02-27; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05.

British forces withdrawn from Afghanistan by 2015 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05.

Bruce Lee died at conventional age thirty-one ( 15% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.

Bruce Lee died at conventional age thirty ( 60% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.

Bruce Lee died at conventional age 29, 30, or 31 ( 80% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.

University was founded in or after 1960 ( 90% confidence )