PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

HPMoR: Harry dies at some point before the end of the story (including if said death is temporary). ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.

HPMoR will be fully completed by chapter 111. (That is to say, it will have no more than 111 chapters, including all the remaining arcs, and all epilogues.) ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by ygert on 2014-01-15; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-03-14.

HPMoR: In the final arc (Chapter 104 – conclusion) there will be a philosophical discussion/debate of the nature of self, identity, and/or continuity of consciousness. This discussion will last LONGER than a single paragraph. ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.

HPMoR: In chapter 111, the events depicted are happening inside a realm created by the mirror. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-25; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.

HPMoR: In the final arc (Chapter 104 – conclusion) It will be revealed that HPJEV was under some magical influence that prevented him from perceiving the link between Voldemort and Quirrel. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.

HP MoR: Lily Potter did not give Petunia a magic potion, but actually Imperius'ed her. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

HP MoR: At some point, Harry (or someone) will break a time-turner to get out of a sticky situation. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by 75th on 2014-01-29; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

HP MoR: Severus Snape is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ami on 2012-04-18; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

HP MoR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-21; known on 2015-01-23; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

In HPMOR, it will turn out to be the case that Lockheart was at some point in the past (that is to say before the events of chapter 86) possessed by Voldemort's spirit. ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ygert on 2012-12-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

In HPMOR, Harry will at some point accept that souls and/or an afterlife exists. ( 34% confidence; 17 wagers; 15 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

HP MoR: Hermione was not False Memory-charmed at any point between chapter 60 and 83 ( 26% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

HPMOR: Dumbledore is Grindelwald ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by dusk on 2013-08-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

HPMOR – Nicolas Flamel is Baba quote undying unquote Yaga ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-08; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

HP MOR: It will be revealed that Harry rederived the Pythagorean Theorem, on a Thursday, before April, and that it was fun ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by solipsist on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

HP MoR: Before Quirrell strengthened the security on the Restricted section, Harry used Library magic to collate information on Horcruxes from scattered tales ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by solipsist on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

HPMoR (up to ch. 98): At some point, Harry Potter will use magic to directly modify his brain (ex. Memory Charm, False memory charm, etc.). ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

HP MoR: A Horcrux or Philosopher's stone was hidden Mount Etna ( 22% confidence )

Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

HP MoR: Lesath Lestrange will cast Avada Kedavra ( 75% confidence )

Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

HP MoR: The Remembrall went off because Harry forgot to study mind magic ( 25% confidence )

Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

“Hermione Granger” will not appear in the title of Chapter 122 of HPMOR. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Zebranky on 2015-03-14; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Zebranky on 2015-03-14.

HPMOR Chapter 122 will have over 18,000 words. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Zebranky on 2015-03-14; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Zebranky on 2015-03-14.

HP MOR: Quirrell was responsible for releasing the troll, but a third party redirected it to Hermione ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by solipsist on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

HP MoR: Mr. Hat & Cloak is Nicholas Flamel ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

HP MoR: Mr. Hat & Cloak is Baba Yaga ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

HP MoR: Horcrux hijinks made Amycus Carrow go slightly Voldemorty ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by solipsist on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

HPMoR (up to ch. 98): Harry Potter will respect his contract/promise from ch.47 with Draco. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

HP MOR: It will be revealed that Harry rederived the Pythagorean Theorem, on a Thursday, before April, and that it was fun ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by solipsist on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

HP MOR: It will be revealed that Harry rederived the Pythagorean Theorem, on a Thursday, before April, and that it was fun ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by solipsist on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

I don't think Nino will get a blue-eyed, hairless cat. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by aeyk on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-02-18; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-03-14.

I will overtake J in Duolingo by the end of February ( 30% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-07; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-03-14.

Sunderland will beat/draw against West Brom ( 75% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-12; known on 2015-02-22; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-03-14.

Aston Villa will beat/draw against Stoke ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-02-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-03-14.

HP MoR: Quirinus Quirrell is actually Nymphadora Tonks. ( 0% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2014-07-25; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.

HPMOR – Hat & Cloak is one of Dumbledore, Quirrel, Voldermort, Future Harry, Lucius Malfoy, Nicholas Flamel, Baba Yaga, Severus Snape, Sirius Black, Peter Pettigrew, Gilderoy Lockhart, Grindelwald, Narcissa Malfoy, one of Hogwarts' founders, MadEye Moody, ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-08; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-13.

HPMOR – Nicolas Flamel is Baba quote undying unquote Yaga is Hat & Cloak ( 10% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-08; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.

HP MoR: Severus Snape will go back to the dark side, such as working for Voldemort ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.

HPMoR: Mr White is Lucius Malfoy, conditional on the identity of Mr White or Lucius Malfoy at the meeting being confirmed, or Lucius not being present at the meeting being confirmed. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2015-03-03; known on 2015-03-15; judged right by Chri on 2015-03-12.

HP MoR: A Deathly Hallow besides the Cloak will appear in the possession of a character in the present-day at some point ( 92% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.

HP MoR: Dumbledore possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 85% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.

HP MoR: Quirrel possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

HP MoR: the Elder Wand is already in the possession of a character ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.

HP MoR: Dumbledore was involved in the attack that ended Narcissa Malfoy's life, but did not cast the spell that killed her. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by 75th on 2013-07-13; known on 2016-01-05; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy was killed by Amelia Bones ( 36% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )