PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Judged Predictions

I will watch a movie I like more than Persona (current favorite) by the end of the year. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by asalmon on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by asalmon on 2015-01-02.
We will lose one of our past Presidents or First Lady (USA) this year after a prolonged illness. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2015-01-02.
We will lose one of our past Presidents or First Lady (USA) this year after a prolonged illness. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2015-01-02.
<10 US Fataltiies due to Ebola virus in 2014 ( 98% confidence )

Created by RobertLumley on 2014-10-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by RobertLumley on 2015-01-02.
Scott Alexander will join Tumblr ( 50% confidence )

Created by fiftytwo on 2014-01-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by fiftytwo on 2015-01-02.
On Jan 1st the government in Kiev will be generally recognised as being in de facto control of all of 2013 Ukraine. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
On Jan 1st the government in Kiev will be generally recognised as being in de facto control of all of 2013 Ukraine except for Crimea, which will be part of Russia de facto. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
There will be no direct “hot”/shooting military conflict between any of the US, France, Germany, the UK, and Russia in 2014 ( 94% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Benquo on 2014-03-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
Russia will gain de facto control of some portion of any of the Baltic states and hold it for more than a week before the end of the year. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
Cameron is still the leader of the Conservatives at the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
Bitcoin hits $10000 at some point during 2014 (top exchange on http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/currency/USD.html) ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-01-01.
bitcoin will cost more than $1500 by the end of year ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by vasaka on 2014-01-27; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-01-01.
Open source MineCraft client by 2015 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
'16 nanometer chips are in mass production' by 2014 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000. ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
US government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
There is a terrorist attack in the USA killing > 100 people. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
CFAR will continue operating in end of 2014. ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
Bitcoins will reach more than 2000$ (at least one time) during the year 2014. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
I will join the military before 2015. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-01.
I will obtain Portuguese citizenship before 2015. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-01.
At least 1 LW post > 100 karma in 2014. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
No nuclear weapon used in anger in 2014. ( 98% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
Egypt's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
China's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
North Korea's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
I will finish reading On Lisp before 2015. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
Obama will remain President of USA at end of 2014. ( 98% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
Price of Bitcoin end of 2014 to be more than $600 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-01-01.
Dr Bob says: If you invest at Apple in June of 2014 right after the split at roughly $90/share you will turn a profit provided you sell by Dec 31 2014 ( 60% confidence )

Created by kjaques on 2014-06-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kjaques on 2015-01-01.
I will have a source of sustainable passive income (minimum $400 per month, requiring < 2hrs per day from me) by the end of this year, so that I can go ahead and pursue my life's dreams full time. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by platypus42 on 2014-04-04; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2015-01-01.
There'll be a popular Android tablet sold for less than $50 (as standard pricing) before 2015 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
Steve Ballmer will be the CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2014 ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
US minimum wage to be $9 (nominal) or greater by 2015. ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
At least one conviction will occur for someone involved in the Boston Marathon bombing before January 1, 2015 ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
Libya will have a lower HDI next time it is assessed ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by modulus on 2012-01-23; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
Cure for baldness discovered by 2014 — The Telegraph. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2015-01-01.
The USG will ratify the Trans Pacific Partnership before 2015. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
there will be a cure for AIDS by the year 2015 ( 90% confidence; 7 comments )

Created by sinyos on 2011-11-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
“It’s my prediction that by 2015, we will have an LTE network that will cover most of the important places in the world and that will give us the coverage and capacity we need” —Anssi Vanjoki ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
2013-2014: Chinese GDP growth <8% —Michael Pettis ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
Global circumnavigation by solar aircraft ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
A will have asked more than 3 questions on MSE before 2015. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by adri on 2014-12-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by adri on 2015-01-01.
Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2015. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
By the end of the year, I will have reached a geohash point for the Aberystwyth graticule ( 5% confidence )

Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Rowan93 on 2015-01-01.
No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2015. ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-01-01.
Dropbox will move off of Amazon S3 before they go public or before 2015 ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by workbean on 2013-06-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by quanticle on 2016-03-16.
Hanson and Yudkowsky publish the AI FOOM debate (EDIT: in a peer-reviewed, academic journal) before 2015. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2012-02-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2015. ( 27% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
The US will have >4% yearly GDP growth, for more than 2 quarters, by Dec 31, 2014. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by annis on 2011-11-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.