“U.S. private reserves may run out by 2015” —CISFHR ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.

D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=1024-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2015 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.

EoE will be released on Bluray in 2014 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.

At least half of my showers this December will be cold. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

NGE TV will be released on Bluray in 2014 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.

NGE: 4.0 will be released in 2014 ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.

NGE: 3.0 will be released in 2014 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.

The Haruhi light novel series will conclude by 2015. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.

The situation on Ukraine will turn into international conflict before end of 2014 and battles will be fought on Polish territory. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

George Zimmerman will be convicted of murder or manslaughter for the shooting of Trayvon Martin before 2015. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.

“By 2015, standardized tests for high school students in every state of the United States will directly evaluate students' understanding of the differences between scientific laws, scientific theories and the kinds of things often called theories outside ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.

“Within five years the Israeli economy will have been devastated because many believe there is a high probability that an atomic bomb will someday be used against Israel” —James Miller ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.

“Within five years the Israeli economy will have been devastated because many believe there is a high probability that an atomic bomb will someday be used against Israel” —James Miller ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.

'Construction of Hilton Orbiter Hotel begins by converting the giant shuttle tanks previously allowed to fall back to Earth.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.

James Webb telescope is launched in 2014 ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.

“No American Soap Operas by 2015” —Ken ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.

An alternative to the US-based Domain Name System will be created and it will be used more widely than the US-based system before 2015. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2015-01-01.

“By 2015 the majority of people who make predictions on this site will have had their genomes sequenced.” ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

“Microsoft will be have the largest market capitalization of any publicly traded company in the world by 2015.” ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

“Immortal mice by 2015” ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

'Terabyte SD cards will be available' in 2014 ( 31% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

Dogecoin's market cap will surpass Litecoin's during 2014 ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-13; known on 2015-01-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

Dorian S. Nakamoto is the Satoshi Nakamoto. (Nobody will prove / find really compelling evidence as to why Dorian is not Satoshi in 2014) ( 31% confidence; 27 wagers; 20 comments )

Created by Tenoke on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

In 2014, there is a mass shooting in USA killing > 10 people. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

Bitcoin will be traded for >$1000 within 2014 ( 38% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by qznc on 2014-07-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

Microsoft will start selling Windows 9 by the end of 2014. ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

HP MoR: Methods of Rationality will have an arc/chapter involving Harry getting a harem. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NancyLebovitz on 2015-01-01.

Satoshi Nakamoto will be Time’s Person of the Year 2014 – http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/ ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by ciil on 2015-01-01.

Snowden will be granted an official pardon by Barack Obama by January 2015. ( 5% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by entropy on 2014-01-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by ciil on 2015-01-01.

Kaj Sotala will release a prototype of his Bayesian Academy game before 2015 ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by atroche on 2013-12-16; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by atroche on 2015-01-01.

I will write 1667 words or more of fiction a day for an entire month during 2014 ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by atroche on 2013-11-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by atroche on 2015-01-01.

HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 58% confidence; 28 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.

There will be a new (canon) Haruhi anime by 2015. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.

Share trading in place by eoy 2014 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-01-01.

I will have finished studying classical physics (Langrangian and Hamiltonian) by end 2014. IE studied and done the exercises from an appropriate text book. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-01-01.

MH370 (or the wreckage) will be found by the start of 2015 ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by procran on 2014-03-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-01-01.