Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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NGE: Touji will be featured significantly in 4.0 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: Both 3.0 and 4.0 will be released in the US by Funimation ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: 4.0 will end on or near a blue wave shot to parallel the red wave shot that opened 1.0, and ended EoE ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: 4.0 will end on or near a blue wave shot to parallel the red wave shot that opened 1.0, and ended EoE ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: By the end of 4.0, the Earth's oceans will be blue (and full of life) and not red & lifeless ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka will pilot an Eva against the MP Evas in 3.0 or 4.0, contingent on MP Evas appearing ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Shinji will kill Gendo ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: a Mari x Shinji ending ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: At some point in the last 2 movies Mari will say 'anta baka?' ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is an Eva ( 2% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is an Eva and specifically Eva-07 ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is part-Russian or has connections to Russia ( 10% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is some sort of 'False Child' which has covertly replaced another one ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually Asuka Soryu Langley in some sense ( 8% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually a disguised Asuka Soryu Langley ( 4% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually an autonomous part of Asuka Soryu Langley, with Asuka Shikinami being the other half ( 3% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is conspiring with Kaji ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group which is opposed to NERV & SEELE's plans ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 01 will be upgraded to/redesignated Eva 07 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Asuka ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Touji ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Mari ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Rei ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be a MP-style Eva ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Shinji will die, permanently, and not transcend or continue to exist in some sense ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: the fourth wall will be broken by a character ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: the fourth wall will be broken by what is recognizably Anno ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: 4.0 will be titled “You Can (Not) Stay Here” ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2020-01-03; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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Trịnh văn ngọc 25 2100074420 Multifocal GBM Anh Khuyên: glioma/ TS ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-30; known on 2021-08-20; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Personal, Productivity – I clear Anki log by deadline. ( 74% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-12; known on 2021-08-13; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-13.
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[Self] Tensing reveals my abs by July ( 3% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-08-12.
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[Self] I will get my Bachelor's degree by June. ( 10% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-09; known on 2021-06-02; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-08-12.
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Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by June ( 50% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-06-01; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-08-12.
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[Self] I will finish my course on rhetoric in a way that makes me proud. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-09; known on 2021-05-21; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-08-12.
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New York, San Francisco or Los Angeles will impose a shelter-in-place order, close businesses, or limit group sizes on or before August 9, 2021 ( 60% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-07-19; known on 2021-08-10; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-12.
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Personal, Productivity – I clear Anki backlog by deadline. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-10; known on 2021-08-11; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-12.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] France to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win at least one medal in weightlifting ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win the most weightlifting medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] North Korea to win more weightlifting medals than the USA ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[Fighting] UFC to hold a fight in France by 2020 EOY ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-06-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Taiwan to compete as “Chinese Taipei” ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Taiwan (or “Chinese Taipei”) to win at least one medal ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win more medals than any other country or Olympic committee ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win the most karate medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Russia to win the most wrestling medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.