PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Judged Predictions

Personal – I get an email back from T by deadline. ( 52% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-06-27; known on 2021-07-04; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-30.
Buying LinkedIn will turn out to be a bad decision for Microsoft! ( 75% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by hoka on 2016-06-25; known on 2021-06-25; judged wrong by firsthummus on 2021-06-30.
[In the anime Odd Taxi]: Lhxv Zvgfhln'f xvyyre vf ure ercynprzrag, Fnxhen Jnqntnxv ( 75% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-24; known on 2021-06-30; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-28.
Personal – I have a deployed service for HWToday that I am using for something by deadline. ( 65% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-06-20; known on 2021-06-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-06-28.
RSA-260 factored by 2021-05-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 40% confidence )

Created by evand on 2021-03-04; known on 2021-06-15; judged wrong by evand on 2021-06-27.
COVID, UK – Full reopening is done as planned (with no local restrictions) on 21 June ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-06-10; known on 2022-06-22; judged wrong by andybrice on 2021-06-24.
COVID, UK – Seven day moving average of confirmed cases exceeds 10,000 again by end of June. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-23.
[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 129 and 200 million (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 129 and 200 million (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 129 and 200 million (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 129 and 200 million (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 129 and 200 million (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
Fewer than 40 million total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be estimated as of March 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 4% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] <40 million. ( 4% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 40 and 75 million (inclusive). ( 5% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 76 and 128 million (inclusive). ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged right by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
Conditional on his participation, Andrew Yang wins the primary for the NYC mayoral election. ( 30% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-22; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
I will have made 70 new Anki cards by next Tuesday ( 10% confidence )

Created by Morpheus on 2021-06-15; known on 2021-06-22; judged wrong by Morpheus on 2021-06-22.
Scott Alexander will be doxed by the NYT ( 38% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by akarlin on 2020-06-23; known on 2020-07-08; judged right by 1MillionAffen on 2021-06-22.
Andrew Yang participates (competes) in the primary for the NYC mayoral election. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-22; judged right by krazemon on 2021-06-22.
Personal, Productivity – I finish an hour of interview soft question practice by deadline. ( 90% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-06-20; known on 2021-06-21; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-21.
Personal, Productivity – I make at least five soft skill flashcards by deadline. ( 93% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-06-17; known on 2021-06-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-18.
Within five years it will be generally agreed that Egypt Flight 804 was brought down by an act of terror rather than a mechanical fault. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-16; known on 2021-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2021-06-18.
NYC gyms will be allowed to remain open (not necessarily full capacity) throughout the potential 4th wave of covid infections. ( 72% confidence )

Created by pdf on 2021-02-22; known on 2021-06-15; judged right by pdf on 2021-06-15.
SN 15 to fly again by June 15. ( 58% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-09; known on 2021-06-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-06-15.
COVID, UK – The UK has a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-24; known on 2021-06-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-06-13.
COVID, US – US Federal government allocates enough vaccine doses to cover every US adult, OR announces it has received enough and credible reporting supports this, by deadline. ( 16% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-06-13.
Personal – I have successfully replaced my suit by deadline. ( 82% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-07-07; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-13.
Google will acquire Quora by 2020 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-11.
Xi Jinping pledges to remove poverty in Zhongguo by 2020. 70.17 million people in the countryside live below the poverty line of 2,300 yuan (USD 376) in annual income at 2014. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-11.
President Trump frees/pardons either Chelsea Manning, Julian Assange, Laurie Love, Jeremy Hammond ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-11.
Artie Lange is dead before the end of the year ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-11.
Guaido invokes Article 187 on the Venezuelan constitution before Jan 1, 2021 ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-11.
Felix Sater testifies publicly before Congress before November 2020 ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-06-02; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-11.
Cal Newport changes his name to something that doesn't sound like a state, a cigarette, or a beach. ( 5% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-11.
Backdoor in crypto used by Signal/libsignal (revealed to public in 5 years) ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-12; known on 2021-06-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-11.
There will be a Olympic competition for Robot simulated human? ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-16; known on 2021-04-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-06-08.
PC at home will disappear in future ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-16; known on 2021-04-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-06-08.
By 2025, at least 30% of new cars sold in Norway will be electric. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by silacoid on 2015-07-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by silacoid on 2021-06-07.
Politics, Israel – Lapid forms coalition government by deadline. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-06-03; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-02.
Personal – The shirts I have ordered fit sufficiently well that I don't purchase others to replace them. ( 67% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-06-14; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-02.
A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by gwern on 2021-06-01.
A Fortune 500 company (besides Tesla) within the next 3 months will announce they have bought Bitcoin ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kadavy on 2021-03-01; known on 2021-06-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2021-06-01.
I will get a first vaccine shot by end of may ( 75% confidence )

Created by dstephens99 on 2021-03-30; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by dstephens99 on 2021-06-01.
I have strep - history of sore throat, current pollen - 5-15% of adult throat inflammation is bacterial - no fever ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by technillogue on 2021-05-28; known on 2021-05-26; judged right by technillogue on 2021-05-28.
Skip will see his parents in person before May 15, 2021 ( 70% confidence )

Created by Liface on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-05-15; judged right by Liface on 2021-05-28.
[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-02-12 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-05-25.
[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-03-04 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-05-25.
[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-03-13 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-05-25.
[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-03-26 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-05-25.