Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Personal – Successfully make it home without getting stranded by 03:00AM 2021-08-25 after being in London during 2021-08-24. ( 93% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-22; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-25.
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Nguyễn Ngọc Cường 41 Dot sign Rathke cleft cyst 80% Macroadenoma 10% ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-06; known on 2021-08-27; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24.
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Trần thị huê 39 Adenoma ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-09; known on 2021-08-30; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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trần thị thảo 41 Lao hay di căn đơn ổ lao 60% di căn 10% khác? ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-12; known on 2021-08-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Cầm Văn Truyền 17 PA hố sau: 70% ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-29; known on 2021-08-19; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Ng Thị Tần 52 U tá tràng xâm lấn túi mật hay u túi mật xâm lấn tá tràng? Khí trong đường mật có phải do k tá tràng xâm lấn thông với đường mật không? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-09; known on 2021-08-23; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24.
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Đặng quốc đại 81 U đồi thị Gbm or glioma ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-16; known on 2021-08-23; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Trần xuân nam 17 Rò dnt xoang sàng trước ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-13; known on 2021-09-03; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Triplebyte will no longer exist as a company on August 20 2021, and if sold will have sold for less than $48.1M. ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by enolan on 2020-03-21; known on 2021-08-20; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-08-21.
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[REACH (or a likely successor) will be open by] EOM June 2021 ( 50% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2020-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-08-21.
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Politics, US – 1% or less of absentee ballots are rejected in the November 2020 presidential election. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-31; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-20.
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Politics, US – 4.5% or more of absentee ballots are rejected in the November 2020 presidential election. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-31; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-08-20.
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“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones” —Marc Andreessen ( 78% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2021-08-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-20.
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Malaysia will get the first gold medal in Olympic Tokyo 2021 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-07; known on 2021-08-08; judged wrong by Akram1 on 2021-08-19.
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Steve from Minecraft is a Smash Ultimate DLC character ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gallerdude on 2018-12-10; known on 2020-02-15; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-08-18.
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NSW will have a peak of >20k active covid cases between 14/07/2021 and 31/12/2021 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kronicd on 2021-07-13; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by kronicd on 2021-09-05.
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NSW will have a peak of >20k active covid cases between 14/07/2021 and 31/12/2021 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kronicd on 2021-07-13; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by kronicd on 2021-09-05.
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[The Economist predicts:] Christian Coleman wins men's 100 metres at the Olympics ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-08-17.
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[The Economist predicts:] England wins Euro 2020 men's football tournament ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-08-17.
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[The Economist predicts:] China wins the most gold medals at the Olympics ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-08-17.
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Afghanistan – Kabul falls to the Taliban before start of 2021-08-22. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-15; known on 2021-08-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-16.
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Afghanistan – Taliban capture Afghan Palace by 2026-09-11 ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-12; known on 2026-09-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-16.
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Afghanistan – Kabul falls to the Taliban before start of 2021-08-17. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-15; known on 2021-08-17; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-16.
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Personal, Productivity – I finish due flashcards for the day by deadline. ( 91% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-13; known on 2021-08-14; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-15.
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NGE Rebuild: In 4.0, there will be an epilogue set years later ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: A version of the song “Komm, süsser Tod” will be used in Rebuild ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Kozo Fuyutsuki dies (before Third Impact/Instrumentality) ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide ( 20% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide by shooting herself in the head ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide by jumping off the bridge ( 3% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will be shot by Gendo (again) ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Gendo will die protecting Shinji in some sense ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Gendo ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaji's killer (if any) will be shown clearly, on-screen, and not off-screen ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaji will kill Misato ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Gendo, in his hand ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: a Rei x Shinji ending ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die before Misato and in her arms ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Misato will die before Kaji does ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die before Misato ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Asuka ( 20% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Asuka, under her eye-patch ( 18% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Any Instrumentality/Third Impact in 3.0 or 4.0 will focus on Asuka rather than Shinji (as measured by seconds of screentime) ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka & Shinji will kiss and the kiss will be initiated by Shinji (rather than Asuka as in NGE TV) ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka & Shinji will kiss ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Contingent upon there being a strangulation scene similar to EoE, Asuka will strangle Shinji ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: 'Giant naked Rei' will rise again from the LCL sea during Instrumentality ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka x Shinji ending ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: 4.0 will not be longer than 60 minutes ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: Touji will pilot an Eva against the Mass Production Evas in 3.0 or 4.0, contingent on the MP Evas appearing ( 25% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.