PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Cao Xuân Hòa 34 U não ngấm thuốc viền, trung tâm dịch, tăng sinh mạch mạnh. GBM ( 80% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-03; known on 2021-08-24; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.

In the federal elections in Germany 2021 on Sept 26th, the center-right parties CDU+CSU will receive the majority of votes. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by omni on 2021-07-23; known on 2021-09-27; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-27.

Je vais aller acheter un caleçon Slip français à Clément pour son anniversaire et il en sera très content. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-17; known on 2021-09-26; judged right by Tot on 2021-09-27.

https://appfairness.org or a similar campaign gets Apple to either lower their fee or pull their own apps from the store ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by grin on 2020-09-24; known on 2021-09-24; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-27.

Gavin Newsom will be recalled ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2021-10-22; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-23.

At least one of the two ESSLLI 2022 proposals I have participated in will be accepted ( 90% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-10; known on 2021-09-20; judged right by Tot on 2021-09-20.

[stocks] Beyond meat upp 20% inom 60 månader ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-16.

[stocks] Boing upp minst 30% inom 1 år ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-16.

[stocks] norwegian cruis upp 40% inom ett år ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-16.

In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted). ( 48% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2011-09-20; known on 2021-09-16; judged wrong by papermachine on 2021-09-16.

Homestuck: Gamzee didn't go god-tier at all. He just made the outfit/acquired it from one of his alternate timeline selves. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by 1337_w0n on 2012-04-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by papermachine on 2021-09-16.

NGE: Rebuild Gendo is Kaworu's genetic father ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by papermachine on 2021-09-16.

Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter. ( 17% confidence; 13 wagers )

Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2021-09-14; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-09-14.

Personal, Productivity – I clear my task list for the day by deadline. ( 78% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-09-12; known on 2021-09-13; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-09-13.

“Ten years from now, U.S. public libraries will circulate more than a billion print books each year” —Walt Crawford ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-12; known on 2021-09-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.

First virtual tourism in 7 years. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2021-08-13; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.

Number of diesel vehicles sold in US will comprise more than 4% of total vehicles sold in 2020 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-10-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.

at least 1 person executed for tor use, tor project social contract pivot not ruled out as contributing factor ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-04; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.

[Politics, India] Actor Rajinikanth wins election-deciding number of seats in TamilNadu 2021 elections ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-15; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.

At least 4% of non-electric vehicles sold in 2020 in the US will be diesel. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-02; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-03 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-13 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-26 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-04-10 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-05-19 ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.

Personal – I will have fully left my current position by Sept. 10th ( 80% confidence )

Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2021-09-10; judged wrong by EricClampton on 2021-09-10.

The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 67% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )

Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.

A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 29% confidence; 21 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.

We move to Level 2 (or 2.5) next Wednesday. ( 60% confidence )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-05; known on 2021-09-08; judged right by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08.

Open Phil makes a grant on wild animal suffering within five years. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-07; known on 2021-09-07; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2021-09-07.

“I will continue to post on LW at least once a month…in 2020” —magfrump ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2021-09-05.

NSW will have a peak of >20k active covid cases between 14/07/2021 and 31/12/2021 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by kronicd on 2021-07-13; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by kronicd on 2021-09-05.

The storm will be “bad” in NY (3 in. rain) History ( 20% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-30; known on 2021-09-03; judged right by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-09-04.

My wife will feel better. Because of past track record, circumstances of her condition ( 80% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-29; known on 2021-09-02; judged right by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-09-03.

Everybody (who wants to) is vaccinated against CoViD-19 in Germany by September ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-09-01; judged right by qznc on 2021-09-01.

A COVID-19 vaccine will be made available to the general populace in August, 2021. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jim_P on 2020-06-11; known on 2021-06-16; judged right by qznc on 2021-09-01.

Nguyễn đăng cảnh 80 Chondrosarcoma ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-13; known on 2021-09-03; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.

Vũ Thị Tăng 66 Meningioma at right cerebellapontine angle ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-29; known on 2021-08-19; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.

Ngô Đăng Khoa 66 u túi mật xâm lấn gan ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-06; known on 2021-08-27; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.

Phạm thị xuân thu 46 tvdd di trú ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-13; known on 2021-09-03; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.

Nguyen Luong Nhat Anh 15 glioma doi thi ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24; known on 2021-08-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.

Phan anh trường ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24; known on 2021-08-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.

I will have at least 4 headaches this week. ( 70% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-23; known on 2021-08-30; judged right by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-30.

I will reflect back on today as a disappointment ( 70% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-29; known on 2021-08-30; judged wrong by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-30.

The New York Giants will lose. ( 70% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-22; known on 2021-08-29; judged right by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-30.

NSW will have a peak of >20k active covid cases between 14/07/2021 and 31/12/2021 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by kronicd on 2021-07-13; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by kronicd on 2021-09-05.

< 20,000 total cases of COVID-19 in New South Wales by the end of 2021 ( 85% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by sjy on 2021-07-13; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by sjy on 2021-08-29.

Cystic intracranial mass. Hpe low grade astrocytoma? Brain abscess unlikely. Rn 1070182. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-19; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by Akram1 on 2021-08-27.

Reminiscence with Hugh Jackson (released on the 20th of August) will not have an audience score in the 60 percentile (60%-69%) here. ( 80% confidence )

Created by cgopher on 2021-08-21; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by cgopher on 2021-08-25.

We kill Magtheridon today ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2021-08-24; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2021-08-25.

Statistics

Judged Predictions