PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-04-25 ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25; judged right by D0TheMath on 2021-05-25.

CA Gov Gavin Newsom will have a recall effort reach the signature threshold needed for certification before March 31, 2022 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-21; known on 2021-04-15; judged right by D0TheMath on 2021-05-25.

COVID, UK – Indoor social meetings of 6 people in England allowed on or before the 18th of May 2021. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-19.

Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for chapter 11 of CtCI by deadline. ( 85% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-13; known on 2021-05-14; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-16.

[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death Naqrefba'f pynvz abg gb xabj Arhsryq'f erfrnepu vf n yvr ( 90% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by Leo on 2021-05-15.

[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death Gur ebznapr fhocybg vf n erq ureevat ( 60% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by Leo on 2021-05-15.

[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death Arhsryq srnef Oenqr orpnhfr bs Naqrefba'f yvrf ( 80% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-05-15.

[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death Naqrefba jnagrq gb fgrny perqvg sbe Arhsryq'f erfhygf ( 70% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-05-15.

[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death md5(murderer's surname) = b32b1b822dd59451b17b08f97fdfe81e ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by Leo on 2021-05-15.

Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan recives over 60% of the votes in the final round of the London Mayoral election. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-18.

Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan recives over 60% of the votes in the final round of the London Mayoral election. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-18.

Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan wins in the first round of the London Mayoral election. ( 25% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-13.

Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan wins less than 50% of the vote in the final round of the London Mayoral election. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-13.

Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan recives over 60% of the votes in the final round of the London Mayoral election. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-18.

COVID, UK – Indoor social meetings of 6 people in England allowed on or before the 10th of May 2021. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-11; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-13.

Bellingcat releases a report on the suspected identity of QAnon (aka Q) within five months ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2020-12-11; known on 2021-05-11; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2021-05-12.

We will walk out of doctor’s appointment after 3 pm ( 60% confidence )

Created by Yitz on 2021-05-11; known on 2021-05-11; judged right by Yitz on 2021-05-12.

Personal, Productivity – I do practice question for Chapter 9 of CtCI by deadline. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-11; known on 2021-05-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-11.

Personal, Productivity – I read, make Anki cards for (if appropriate), and do a practice question session for C6 of Cracking the Coding Interview. ( 82% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-05; known on 2021-05-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-07.

Facebook's Oversight Board will rule to reinstate Donald Trump's account ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by lithp on 2021-05-05; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by lithp on 2021-05-05.

Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for C5 of my book by deadline. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-04; known on 2021-05-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-05.

Personal, Productivity – I read chapters 4 and 5 and make Anki cards as appropriate before deadline. ( 90% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-02; known on 2021-05-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-03.

Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for (if necessary) chapter 3 of my book by deadline. ( 90% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-05-02; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-03.

I will keep my current Anki streak for another 100 days. ( 3% confidence )

Created by Morpheus on 2021-04-25; known on 2021-07-27; judged wrong by Morpheus on 2021-05-02.

Politics – US withdraws all troops from Afghanistan by 1st of May 2021. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-02.

The J&J vaccine will be administered in the US on May 1st: either administration is not paused or it is paused and resumed before May 1st ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lithp on 2021-04-14; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-05-01.

The AstraZeneca vaccine will receive an EUA for use in the US by May 1st ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by lithp on 2021-03-22; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by lithp on 2021-05-01.

SN-15 to fly by the end April ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-12; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-01.

The study of Hölscher will show that at in Munich max 5 times as many people are infected with Covid-19 than positive tests showed. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by qznc on 2020-04-24; known on 2020-08-10; judged right by qznc on 2021-05-01.

Germany's CDU/CSU will choose Armin Laschet as chancellor candidate before May ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by qznc on 2021-05-01.

Germany's Greens choose Robert Habeck as chancellor candidate before May ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-05-01.

James Bond No Time to Die is released in April ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-05-01.

Politics, Europe – EU or a member state thereof restricts export of Pfizer vaccines, to the UK, with a justification relating to the UK not exporting enough AZ vaccine to the EU or a member state thereof, by end of April 2021. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-17; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-01.

Personal, Productivity – I go through Chapter 2 of book by deadline. ( 85% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-30; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-01.

Hungary will open its borders back ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by MartaK on 2020-10-30; known on 2021-04-30; judged wrong by MartaK on 2021-04-30.

I get a COVID vaccine before the end of April ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-04-03; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-04-30.

I will learn to cook, and will turn out to be better at it than my parents. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-04; known on 2020-06-05; judged right by stepan on 2021-04-30.

Ludovico Einaudi will still be my favourite composer five years from now. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-04; known on 2020-06-05; judged right by stepan on 2021-04-30.

I will still be using Prediction Book in 2 year's time. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-29; known on 2020-03-29; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-04-30.

[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] Ian Khama ( 5% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.

[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] Patrice Trovoada ( 2% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.

[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] someone other than Ian Khama or Patrice Trovoada ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.

[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] nobody ( 92% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.

[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 1.25M ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )