Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Cuba to win more wrestling medals than the USA ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win more shooting medals than the USA ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] a member of the former Soviet Union ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] the United States ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] Cuba ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[Personal] I will read at least 64 books in 2020 ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] France ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09; judged wrong by katingand on 2021-08-09.
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Lê Thị Dung 34 67364 GCT with multiple aneurysms ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-25; known on 2021-08-08; judged right by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Apple will lose all its *NIX developer goodwill and become the equivalent of Microsoft — hated but a necessary evil. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kyst on 2011-07-28; known on 2021-07-28; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-08-07.
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Personal – I get around to cleaning the oven by deadline. ( 95% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-06; known on 2021-08-07; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-07.
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Phùng Văn Vượng 31 Lymphoma/ Bệnh tủy tạo máu Leukemia ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-23; known on 2021-08-13; judged right by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Personal – I finish Coursera intro by deadline. ( 95% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-04; known on 2021-08-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-04.
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India and China's border dispute escalates to a battle fought more than 100 km from the border ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-03; known on 2021-08-03; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2021-08-03.
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The GAO will not uphold Blue Origin's protest of the HLS bid. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-27; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-03.
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Nguyễn Thị Hoa 68 Chordoma ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-31; known on 2021-08-03; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Nông Thị Niếm 65 67451 Mets: 60% GBM: 30% ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-25; known on 2021-08-02; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-03.
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Nông Thị Niếm 65 67451 Mets: 60% GBM: 30% ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-25; known on 2021-08-02; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-03.
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< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2020-07-31; known on 2021-07-31; judged right by sam_jaques on 2021-07-31.
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By July 2021, China will invade Taiwan. The invasion will take longer than anticipated and as a result China will use biological weapons. The USA and EU will do nothing. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Random on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-07-31.
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On July 27th, I took 0.5g of tumeric, 0.5g of Cinnamon, and Sleepytime tea around 6:30pm. I thought that I would wake up feeling well rested. ( 65% confidence )
Created by parallax on 2021-07-29; known on 2021-07-29; judged wrong by parallax on 2021-07-29.
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Personal – I prepare and send text by deadline. ( 72% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-27; known on 2021-07-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-07-28.
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[Politics, India] Actor Kamalhassan wins election-deciding number of seats in TamilNadu 2021 elections ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-16; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2021-07-27.
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Etherium price ≥ $500 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by myah on 2020-07-06; known on 2021-07-06; judged right by stepan on 2021-07-26.
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Eastern Latvia becomes its own country/Latvia splits into at least 2 countries ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2021-07-24; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-07-26.
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Russian “peacekeepers” on the ground in Latvia ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2021-07-24; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-07-26.
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Uprising/civil strife/coup/etc in latvia makes international headlines ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2021-07-24; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-07-26.
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British variant is >30% more transmissible than preexisting variant. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-16; known on 2021-07-16; judged right by D0TheMath on 2021-07-24.
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'Global average temperatures have risen by 1°C' ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by omni on 2021-07-23.
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In Germany CoViD cases (per 100k people per week) will rise again within a month (due to Delta variant) ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2021-06-20; known on 2021-07-21; judged right by qznc on 2021-07-21.
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Kev will still be working here on 27th May, 2022 ( 100% confidence )
Created by gurgus on 2020-05-27; known on 2022-05-27; judged wrong by gurgus on 2021-07-19.
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The 2020 Olympics will not be cancelled ( 53% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by gurgus on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-07-24; judged right by gurgus on 2021-07-19.
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Personal – C gets back to me about [redacted] by deadline. ( 77% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2021-07-19; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-19.
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Personal – T follows up with me after Wednesday and before deadline, positively. ( 68% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2021-07-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-16.
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Kang the conqueror is in charge of the TVA. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-07-09; known on 2021-07-16; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-07-16.
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50% of people are vaccinated in 5 months ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2021-07-06; judged wrong by htaussig on 2021-07-14.
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COVID, UK – national reopening will happen on 21 June but there will be significant local restrictions ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-06-10; known on 2022-06-22; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-11.
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US – Military UAP report per IAA due 1st of June states aliens OR states “secretive organisations” are an unlikely explanation for unidentified aerial phenomena. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-06-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-11.
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The U.S. will surpass 36 million confirmed COVID-19 cases by July 1, 2021 at 00:00 GMT, defined as total cases reported at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Luke on 2020-12-26; known on 2021-07-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-07-10.
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At least 2 of the popular news aggregation services (Feedly, Inoreader, Digg Reader, NewsBlur, The Old Reader) will use their RSS aggregation apps as their main source of revenue, sustaining their business. ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2017-05-26; known on 2021-05-02; judged right by stepan on 2021-07-10.
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I finish my first draft of an EA Forum post, and share. ( 60% confidence )
Created by giljuand on 2021-07-01; known on 2021-07-09; judged wrong by giljuand on 2021-07-09.
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NZ win the WTC final ( 55% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2021-06-15; known on 2021-06-23; judged right by Deepak on 2021-07-07.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2021 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01.
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There will be shortages of COVID-19 vaccine in the US ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by Mendez on 2021-07-01.
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Jurassic World 3 is released in June 2021 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-06-30; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-07-01.
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Luca movie is released by Pixar in June ( 70% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by qznc on 2021-07-01.
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Politics, US – Andrew Cuomo Still NY Governor through 2021-06-30 ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-07-01.
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COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are still only three vaccines with FDA authorisation. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-07-01.
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COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are four vaccines with FDA authorisation. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-01.
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COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are six or more vaccines with FDA authorisation. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-01.
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An Immunitor vaccine clinical trial will actually take place in more than 20 people. ( 7% confidence )
Created by katriel on 2020-06-22; known on 2021-06-30; judged wrong by katriel on 2021-07-01.