Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Personal, Productivity – I do another interview prep practice session by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-04-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-24.
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Politics, US – Derek Chauvin convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) by 1st of June 2021. ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by lazydope on 2021-04-23.
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News, UK – “suspicious object” at Seafield recycling center is not a functional explosive. Decides unknown if no resolving news by deadline. ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-22; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-22.
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I (a VA resident in phase 1c) will receive my first vaccine dose on or before April 22. ( 25% confidence )
Created by dmwit on 2021-03-30; known on 2021-04-22; judged right by dmwit on 2021-04-22.
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Gold reaches range $800~900/oz by 04/21/2021 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-22; known on 2021-04-21; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2021-04-21.
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Derek Chauvin will not be found guilty of murder / murder charges will be dropped (w.r.t George Floyd case). ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by galaga on 2020-08-03; known on 2021-10-03; judged wrong by galaga on 2021-04-21.
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AR glasses announced at Apple Event ( 10% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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Apple TV announced at Apple Event ( 33% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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AirTags announced at Apple Event ( 75% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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iMac with Apple Silicon announced at Apple Event ( 40% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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iPad Pro w/ MiniLED announced at Apple Event ( 90% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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Derek Chauvin will be convicted of murder ( 49% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by enolan on 2020-06-17; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by Deepak on 2021-04-20.
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The Super Mario Bros. Any% record will be above 4:55:000 on 31st December 2022. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by The_Offwo on 2020-03-09; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by The_Offwo on 2021-04-20.
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Germanys GDP (BIP) decreases by at least 4% in 2020 (like in 2009 finance crisis) ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-06-10; known on 2021-01-04; judged right by qznc on 2021-04-18.
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US deaths attributed to covid19 will be in the range 80,000 to 500,000 by next April. ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by credunkist on 2020-04-03; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-04-18.
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Personal, Productivity – I do at least an hour's work for G by deadline. ( 92% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-16; known on 2021-04-17; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-18.
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Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in Spain (either for people vaccinated or recovered) ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sortega on 2020-04-06; known on 2021-06-16; judged right by sortega on 2021-04-16.
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My credence in strong longtermism will be up to 85 % after completing my essay ( 60% confidence )
Created by aarmai19 on 2021-02-05; known on 2021-03-16; judged wrong by aarmai19 on 2021-04-16.
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Jakes IO psych conference happens in April ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-16; known on 2021-04-16; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2021-04-16.
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India makes (attempts to make) it illegal for exchanges to facilitate trading bitcoin. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by galaga on 2021-03-12; known on 2021-04-12; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-13.
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I'll fall asleep within one hour. ( 65% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-04-09; known on 2021-04-10; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-04-10.
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[Self] By the end of March, I will publish my secretary.el package. ( 50% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-09; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-04-10.
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[Self] By the end of March, I will have been tracking & reviewing my finances for 30+ days in a way that appears sustainable. ( 30% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-09; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-04-10.
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Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by April ( 30% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-04-10.
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[Self] I make a YouTube channel by end of February ( 20% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-02-28; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-04-10.
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[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] NKU ( 10% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.
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[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] S2 ( 20% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.
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[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] S1 ( 5% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.
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[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] CM ( 40% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.
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[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] W5 ( 5% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.
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[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] W4 ( 10% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.
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[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] OFR ( 99% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.
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[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] IC ( 90% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged right by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.
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[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] SP ( 60% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.
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COVID, US – The CDC lists three or fewer variants under concern as monitored as of the 4th of April 2021. ( 38% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-04-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-07.
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COVID, US – The CDC lists four variants under concern as monitored as of the 4th of April 2021. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-04-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-07.
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COVID, US – The CDC lists five or more variants under concern as monitored as of the 4th of April 2021. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-04-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-07.
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Politics, UK – Margaret Ferrier resigns by April 2021 ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-05.
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COVID, US – US implements a Tabarrok vaccine idea to speed up vaccinations by 1st of April ( 23% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-05.
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[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year ( 23% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-04-03; known on 2021-04-03; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2021-04-04.
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Personal, Productivity – I read up to page 650 of GEB by deadline. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-03; known on 2021-04-04; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-03.
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Trump convicted by senate in 2021 ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by MultiplyByZer0 on 2021-04-02.
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Covid 19 will be eradicated ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mwalimu71 on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-23; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.
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Politics, US – Trump loses the US Presidential Election in 2020, and then either delays inauguration of his successor beyond the end of January 2020 or enacts a policy/declaration they describe as intended to do so. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-05; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2021-04-02.
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I will have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (first dose) by 2021-07-01 ( 90% confidence )
Created by lithp on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-04-02.
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I will have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (first dose) by 2021-06-01 ( 80% confidence )
Created by lithp on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-04-02.
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I will have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (first dose) by 2021-05-01 ( 70% confidence )
Created by lithp on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-04-02.
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Joe Biden is physically present in the Oval Office on one or more days between Jan 20, 2021-Jan 31, 2021 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-23; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by kuudes on 2021-04-01.
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I will have been vaccinated against COVID-19 before 2021-04-01 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2020-10-16; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2021-04-01.
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I'll use this more than five times before april 1, 2021 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by vcavallo on 2021-03-18; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by vcavallo on 2021-04-01.