Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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U.S. Stock Market at or above current worth through the November 2020 elections (as measured by the S&P500 – $2886.73 on June 10th 2019) ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2019-06-10; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by lettergram on 2020-11-05.
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Between 100M and 200M Americans voted in the current Presidential election ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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Between 10M and 60M Americans switched to work from home during the pandemic ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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IHeartRadio is ad-supported or has a paid premium version ( 60% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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Apple is the largest company traded on a major stock exchange ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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The market cap of Apple is between $100B and $5T ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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The market cap of Uber is between $50B and $500B ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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Harris will becoming the new Democratic candidate for the office of President (due to Biden's withdrawal or some other circumstance). ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-16; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-04.
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[Politics] Trump will choose not to run for a second term in 2020. ( 14% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by KangaRookie on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-04.
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Election results declared tonight (Nov 3) by the majority of major news outlets ( 50% confidence )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by LukeS on 2020-11-04.
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Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November. ( 5% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-19.
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Mitt Romney will endorse Joe Biden before the 2020 election ( 34% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-03.
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Biden will drop out of the race before election day Nov 3. ( 7% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ender Wiggin on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-03.
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Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November. ( 5% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-19.
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As of 2020-11-01 Denison University has COVID prevention polices that are deemed to be stricter on balance than the policies they have adopted as of 2020-08-07 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-08-07; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-11-03.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] NIKKEI 225 (now 21801) ( 54% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-03.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] FTSE 100 (now 7187) ( 43% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-03.
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OSU is online only by 1 November ( 80% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-09-04; known on 2020-11-02; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-11-02.
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I will not get my prescription today ( 60% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-02; known on 2020-11-02; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-02.
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It will rain tomorrow in NYC ( 65% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-30; known on 2020-10-31; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-02.
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Andrew Yang runs as a third party candidate ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-06-03; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] KOSPI (now 2049) ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] Hang Seng (now 26307) ( 52% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] SSI Shanghai (now 2973) ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] CAC 40 (now 5628) ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] OMX Tallinn (now 1236) ( 52% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] NSE-All Share Nigeria (now 26584) ( 46% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] DJIA (now 26756) ( 48% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] ASX 200 (now 6607) ( 45% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Australian ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Japanese ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Chinese ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Norwegian ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Swedish ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be British ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be French ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] No winner to be American ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be American ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] More than one winner ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Canadian ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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US Economy: Bureau of Economic Analysis to have announced that US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was negative for any quarter between 2019 Q1 and 2020 Q3. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-22; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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LVŽS to retain its plurality in Lithuania's parliament after 2020 election ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-10-26; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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LVŽS to retain its plurality in Lithuania's parliament after 2020 election ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-10-26; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4200 ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4300 ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4400 ( 43% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4500 ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[US politics] The 2020 Democratic VP candidate to be one of the participants in the July 2019 debate ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-09; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Fighting] Claressa Shields to have a professional MMA bout by 2020-07-31 ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-01; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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UFC, Bellator, or ONE fighters to belong to a labor union ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.