Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Reddit is blocked in the PRC as of 2020-10-29 ( 89% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-29; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Personal] I will read at least 48 books in 2020 Q1-Q3 ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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Gladys Berejiklian will still be the Premier of New South Wales on 1 November 2020 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2020-10-13; known on 2020-11-01; judged right by sjy on 2020-11-01.
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covid Restrictions on air travel will be lifted (as pertains to SJ's MS job) by November 2020 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2020-04-29; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by kjaques on 2020-11-01.
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Politics, Belarus – Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of October 2020 ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NickN on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-11-01.
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Politics, US – An executive order is issued requesting the FCC issue a statement or regulation 'clarifying' when takedowns under Section 230 are in good faith, and the FCC does so, prior to the start of November 2020 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-11-01.
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Politics, UK – Extinction Rebellion as an organisation is classified as an organised crime or terrorism group on any government list, proscribed, or otherwise legally restricted in a manner not extending to other organisations by end of Oct. ( 13% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-06; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-11-01.
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There will be no war involving more than one of the US, Russia, China, or any member of the EU on different sides started in 2017 (Measure: Total eventual casualties above 100) ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2020-11-01.
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In the next five years, two classes in the Complexity Zoo as of 10 August 2011, will either be shown to be equal or shown to be unequal. ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-10; known on 2016-08-10; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2020-11-01.
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There will be a Republican primary challenger getting >10% of the primary vote in 2020 (conditional on Trump running) ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2020-11-01.
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SpaceX Crew-1 will dock with the ISS before November 1 2020 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by finback on 2020-08-28; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2020-11-01.
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Oprah Winfrey will run for president in 2020. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by iCrown on 2018-02-26; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2020-11-01.
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I will start some internship at the latest in October ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-10-10; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-11-01.
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My poker money will be positive by the end of October ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by fandangos on 2020-09-22; known on 2020-10-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-11-01.
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The US military contains between 1M and 5M people. ( 80% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-30; known on 2020-10-30; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-10-30.
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Tech – OnePlus 8T launches by end of October 2020, and has a 120Hz screen. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-06; known on 2020-11-01; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-10-29.
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Supreme Court Nomination seen through before Pres election. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by LukeS on 2020-09-26; known on 2020-11-03; judged right by LukeS on 2020-10-28.
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DRACO (the all-purpose virus vaccine) will turn out upon reading the literature to have good in-vitro evidence for effectiveness in at least 5 different viruses ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-28; known on 2020-11-01; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-10-28.
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DRACO (the all-purpose virus vaccine) will turn out after checking the literature to have any mammalian studies published ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-28; known on 2020-11-01; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-10-28.
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The most common origin for French Foreign Legion soldiers is Africa. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-28; known on 2020-10-28; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-10-28.
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The annual revenues of the auto industry worldwide are $100B-$999B ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-28; known on 2020-10-28; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-10-28.
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There is at least one Chinese-owned-and-designed auto manufacturer worth at least $1B ( 80% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-28; known on 2020-10-28; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-10-28.
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The market cap of the steel industry is $10-90B ( 50% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-27; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-10-27.
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There will be a “second wave” of coronavirus (increased # of daily US deaths relative to June) visible by fall 2020. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-06-29; known on 2020-10-16; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-10-27.
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A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. ( 79% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-10-07; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Deepak on 2020-10-27.
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No further debates take place between Trump and Biden ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-10-20; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-10-26.
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I will take the A. test in October ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-10-20; judged right by fandangos on 2020-10-23.
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I get a job offer from Google ( 50% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-10-22; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-10-23.
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In case Congress ever gets to actually charging President Trump with something sufficiently egregious to warrant Impeachment, a new war begins involving the US ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-10-21.
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ACIW finishes the day more than 3 percent up ( 75% confidence )
Created by KwameA on 2020-10-20; known on 2020-10-21; judged wrong by KwameA on 2020-10-20.
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UK schools will close again due a significant rise in COVID cases by 15th Oct 2020 ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-09-01; known on 2020-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-10-16.
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Personal – I weigh in below 62kg before end of 2020-10-15. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-27; known on 2020-10-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-16.
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By January 1, 2035, a superconductor with critical temperature at leas 215 K will be discovered. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-21; known on 2035-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-10-15.
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By January 1, 2035, a superconductor which has a critical temperature of at least 225 K will be discovered. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-21; known on 2035-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-10-15.
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By January 1, 2035, a superconductor which has a critical temperature of at least 225 K will be discovered. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-21; known on 2035-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-10-15.
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Greta Thunberg will win the Nobel Peace Prize. ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2020-10-09; judged right by Liging on 2020-11-15.
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United Ireland by 2020 ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-06-05; known on 2020-12-16; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-10-12.
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I'll have listed all my “any” and “1month” items to sell ( 90% confidence )
Created by pdf on 2020-10-05; known on 2020-10-12; judged right by pdf on 2020-10-12.
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Greta Thunberg will win the Nobel Peace Prize. ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2020-10-09; judged right by Liging on 2020-11-15.
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LeBron increases his ppg in the playoffs ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-10-09; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-10-12.
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Fight by end of camping ( 35% confidence )
Created by LukeS on 2020-09-28; known on 2020-10-10; judged right by LukeS on 2020-10-11.
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Delhi will be a relative COVID haven on Oct 10, 2020 and safe enough to go into the office and hang out with small groups ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by katriel on 2020-07-11; known on 2020-10-10; judged wrong by katriel on 2020-10-10.
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Greta Thunberg will win the Nobel Peace Prize. ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2020-10-09; judged right by Liging on 2020-11-15.
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[The Economist predicts:] Greta Thunberg wins Nobel peace prize ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-10-09.
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Congress will reauthorize the Export-Import Bank by the end of August. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2020-10-08.
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At least one NBA team has 5+ players infected with the COVID ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-10-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-10-07.
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NBA makes it through the bubble without a league-wide shutdown ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-10-13; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-10-07.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 10/1 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-10-07.
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Basement construction will be finished by Oct 2 EOD ( 55% confidence )
Created by grin on 2020-09-21; known on 2020-10-03; judged wrong by grin on 2020-10-05.
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Bk. will not try Anki (or at least tell me he did) until the end of the month ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-10-05.