Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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The Republicans will not win the presidential election in 2020. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2020-11-09; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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There will be a flood of positive news stories about Hydroxychloroquin the week after the presidential election ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jgvergo on 2020-04-23; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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The US Military's $375M spending on robotics is less than the private sector's investment in self-driving cars ( 70% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-10; known on 2020-11-10; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-10.
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James Randi will live to be 93 years old. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2011-12-05; known on 2021-08-07; judged wrong by gav on 2020-11-10.
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The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will reach 6 million on or before January 1, 2021. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30; known on 2021-01-02; judged right by gav on 2020-11-10.
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Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2020. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by gav on 2020-11-10.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 1 million ( 40% confidence; 45 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-09.
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Whoever loses the American Presisential 2020 election will accept the results and there will not be any constitutional crisis or attempt to overturn the vote. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-09-21; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-11-09.
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Kim Jong Un confirmed dead or vegetative state by end of June 2020 ( 23% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-06-30; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-13.
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Kim Jong Un confirmed dead or vegetative state by end of June 2020 ( 23% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-06-30; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-13.
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The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 16 ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 17 ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-08.
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Libertarian Party wins presidency in 2020. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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A non-human animal will be elected US president in 2020 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-14; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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A fictional character will be elected US president in 2020 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-14; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Trump will win California in 2020 ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-02-28; known on 2021-02-28; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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President Trump will win the 2020 Election. ( 54% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by meganwhalen20 on 2019-11-11; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Donald Trump to win reelection with at least 49 US states voting for him. ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-04; known on 2020-11-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] 20 or more ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 19 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 18 ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 12 ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 11 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] 10 or fewer ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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If Joe Biden wins the 2020 democratic bid for president then Donald Trump will win the 2020 election. ( 50% confidence; 29 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jprettner on 2019-06-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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North Korea floats leaflets over the border to South Korea ( 58% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-23; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-08.
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Bars and clubs will open again in The Netherlands in 2020. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-08.
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Kanye or Kim will run for President in 2020. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ldor_11 on 2018-06-18; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-11-08.
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[Politics] Trump will be elected for a second term ( 45% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-11-07.
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Donald Trump will be elected for a second presidential term ( 52% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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Trump will be reelected. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by subra on 2019-05-09; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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Donald Trump will be elected president in the 2020 presidential elections. ( 50% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by korakos on 2020-04-30; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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Trump Approval >50% by nov 1, 2020 ( 29% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-05; known on 2020-11-07; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Donald Trump will NOT be re-elected ( 55% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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Democrats hold House in 2020 ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Deepak on 2020-11-07.
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Trump wins 2020 election ( 38% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-11-07.
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Donald Trump will lose the next election. ( 62% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-03; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-07.
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Donald Trump will be reelected. ( 44% confidence; 22 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alvastarr on 2018-07-26; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Trump wins a second term in office ( 48% confidence; 29 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Trump will not be re-elected in 2020 ( 58% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by avi on 2020-11-07.
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A third-party candidate gets more than 5% of the vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-14; known on 2020-11-07; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-11-07.
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France to experience a Covid “second wave” in 2020 (any count of daily deaths > 800 by end of calendar year) ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-04-21; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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In five years, 80% of the smartphones worldwide will come from Chinese companies or Chinese acquired companies. ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by danpop on 2015-11-06; known on 2020-11-06; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Politics, US, California – Proposition 22 passes. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-11; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by finback on 2020-11-06.
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[Trump ] dies ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2020-11-06; judged wrong by finback on 2020-11-06.
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Donald Trump would NOT get Impeached ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by DragonGod on 2017-06-16; known on 2020-11-07; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-06.
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Contingent on losing her appeal, Amanda Knox will be extradited to Italy to serve her sentence. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-31; known on 2018-01-31; judged wrong by lettergram on 2020-11-05.