Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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I have covid ( 60% confidence )
Created by dmz on 2022-11-20; known on 2022-12-01; judged right by dmz on 2022-11-26.
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I will be at the airport by 5:17 am. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-26; known on 2022-11-26; judged right by danielfilan on 2022-11-26.
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Hikvision sanctioned by US Government ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-05; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-11-26.
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Conditioned on me visiting family for Thanksgiving, we will talk about the FTX scandal. ( 65% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-19; known on 2022-11-25; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2022-11-25.
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I will run Fishyscapes evaluation by 2022-11-24, 21:00 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Ivan on 2022-11-23; known on 2022-11-24; judged wrong by Ivan on 2022-11-24.
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Miss Piano answers my ping text. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-22; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-11-22.
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Jean-Luc Mélenchon will not become premier ministre of France in 2022. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tot on 2022-05-13; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tot on 2022-11-21.
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Ilan Goldfajn will be elected president of the Interamerican Bank of Development (BID in Portuguese). ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-12; known on 2022-11-21; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2022-11-21.
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Miss Sheep will reply to my feeler text ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-11-21.
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Miss Pink Panther will reply to my feeler text ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-11-21.
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Miss Checkers will reply to my feeler text ( 80% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-11-21.
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I will not regret going to the 20 Books to 50k conference in Vegas ( 70% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2022-10-21; known on 2022-11-19; judged right by kadavy on 2022-11-20.
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Elizabeth Holmes to be sentenced to 4 to 12 years in prison. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-13; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-19.
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In 5 years programmers will be expected to write formally proven programs to the same or more extent as they're expected to write tests today ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jach on 2017-11-17; known on 2022-11-17; judged wrong by crabman on 2022-11-17.
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Steven will not like you back on hinge ( 99% confidence )
Created by chris.walton113@gmail.com on 2022-10-26; known on 2022-11-09; judged right by chris.walton113@gmail.com on 2022-11-17.
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Republicans have what is widely regarded as a blowout election in their favor at the midterms, including taking both the House and Senate. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-02; known on 2022-11-10; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-10.
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[We will throw away the current data] within 3 months ( 30% confidence )
Created by beth_b on 2022-08-01; known on 2022-09-01; judged wrong by beth_b on 2022-11-02.
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Portuguese government still provides free Covid vaccines by 1st Nov 2022 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by LouisLC on 2022-05-14; known on 2022-11-01; judged right by LouisLC on 2022-11-01.
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Elon Musk completes acquisition of Twitter ( 59% confidence; 36 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-14; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-10-30.
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Lee Teng-Hui to become a centenarian ( 15% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by n99 on 2022-10-28.
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temp ( 20% confidence )
Created by tara on 2022-10-14; known on 2022-10-14; judged wrong by tara on 2022-10-25.
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The sun will rise tomorrow. ( 99% confidence )
Created by djt5532 on 2022-10-20; known on 2022-10-21; judged right by djt5532 on 2022-10-20.
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temp ( 20% confidence )
Created by tara on 2022-10-14; known on 2022-10-14; judged wrong by tara on 2022-10-25.
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D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 10 years ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2022-10-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-10-06.
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New Zealand will open borders to vaccinated travelers by August 2022 ( 70% confidence )
Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known on 2022-08-16; judged right by enochthechronocom on 2022-10-05.
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I will have at least one specific aspect of my life personal data collection/analysis has improved in my life. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Soren on 2022-07-10; known on 2022-10-01; judged wrong by Soren on 2022-10-04.
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By this data the goal I currently think is the most important one to me will be the same. ( 97% confidence )
Created by Soren on 2022-07-10; known on 2022-10-01; judged right by Soren on 2022-10-04.
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The subreddit PurplePillDebate will hit 100,000 subscribers by July 8th 2022 ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by MarkFreed on 2022-02-12; known on 2022-07-08; judged right by MarkFreed on 2022-10-04.
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Will the horizon for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 9 days for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the horizon for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 4.5 days for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the parameter b for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.5 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 99% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the parameter b for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 4.77613e-20 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the intercept for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 33.48197 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the slope for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to -7.9206883 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 38% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the p-value for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.81493 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.17513 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 98% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to -5.19915e-6 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 48% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the correlation between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to -0.00994 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 48% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the correlation between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 45% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the mean squared error of the predicted to the actual Brier score for the forecasts be better on logistic fit than the exponential fit, for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the intercept for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 3.5976667e-4 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than orequal to 1.4922e-5 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 40% confidence; 8 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the horizon for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 75 days for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the horizon for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 1340 days for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the parameter b for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.5 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the parameter b for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.9579 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the Brier score on all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts be greater than or equal to 0.17085? ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.
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Will the intercept for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 3.5976667e-4 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-03.
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Will the slope for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to -1.08226e-6 for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-02.