Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Julian Castro ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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SPD will get the most votes in 2020 Hamburg State Election ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-12; known on 2020-02-24; judged right by qznc on 2020-02-25.
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AfD will get more votes than FDP in 2020 Hamburg State Election ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-12; known on 2020-02-24; judged right by qznc on 2020-02-25.
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At least 25% of American personal car travel will be via self-driving cars by February 24, 2020. ( 4% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2020-02-24; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-02-24.
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Personal – I weigh in at 75kg or below by deadline. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-18.
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Personal, Productivity – I will finish with IoT Assignment by 11:59 pm 15th Feb. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by atharva117 on 2020-02-15; known on 2020-02-15; judged wrong by atharva117 on 2020-02-16.
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I will complete my PhD within +-3 months of the scheduled time frame. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2017-05-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2020-02-15.
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The Baltimore Ravens will win the Super Bowl ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-02-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-02-15.
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Politics, UK – Attorney General Geoffrey Cox is removed from their position by deadline. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-02-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-15.
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Politics, UK – Andrea Leadsom is removed from the Cabinet by deadline. Change of position while remaining in the Cabinet does not count. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-02-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-15.
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Having an agw for myself. ( 80% confidence )
Created by shardo on 2019-02-14; known on 2020-02-14; judged wrong by shardo on 2020-02-14.
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Politics, UK – Chancellor Sajid Javid is removed from their position as Chancellor by deadline. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-02-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-13.
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IV and I will have dinner tonight ( 90% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-02-12; known on 2020-02-12; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-02-13.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by bklorimer on 2019-02-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-08-13.
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Personal – I get hold of a key to the ground floor bike storage in my apartment building by deadline. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-02-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-12.
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Personal – I go cycling for any length of time > 0 before deadline. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-11; known on 2020-02-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-12.
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A cryptocurrency that could have been created by http://coingen.bluematt.me/ achives market cap > 50% of bitcoin's in the next five years. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-06; known on 2019-01-06; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-11.
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Mandatory paternity testing in some states of the USA by 2020. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tomokaicho on 2013-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-02-10.
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Tech – Charter delays shutdown of its home security service beyond 2020-02-05. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-02-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-10.
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Weather, UK – Edinburgh Castle is closed or has reduced hours on 2020-02-09 due to weather ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-08; known on 2020-02-10; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-09.
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Replication of the buckyball life extension research will show <25% longevity gains. ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-22; known on 2018-04-22; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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“Global oil demand exceeds 100m barrels per day” in 2019 ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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Conditional on a cap-and-trade scheme passing, US CO2 emissions in 2019 will be >=%95 2008. —Jack ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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“By 2020, 75% of all incremental new generation will come from renewable/sustainable energy in the U.S.” ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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Weather, UK – My bus home in Edinburgh is delayed more than ten minutes compared to published arrival time, night of 2020-02-08 ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-08; known on 2020-02-09; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-09.
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Sports, OWL- London Spitfire beats NY Excelsior ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-08; known on 2020-02-09; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-08.
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Personal – My piped-in heating and hot water system is fixed by deadline. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-08.
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Abrams runs for president in 2020 ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] any other candidate ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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Rick Perry to testify publicly before a committee in Congress as part of impeachment inquiry ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-10-10; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-02-04.
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The Senate to vote on impeachment of the 45th president before the end of June 2020 ( 86% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-10-19; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-02-04.
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The Senate trial for Trump’s impeachment will have at least one witness give testimony (public or private) in 2020 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-02-04.
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Politics, UK – Big Ben rings on the 31st of January or 1st of February, London Time. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-02-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-03.
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Politics – Iran strikes, and does not deny striking, a US military base between 2020-01-12 and 2020-02-02 ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-02-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-03.
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By the prediction date, due to technological advances, UPS loading positions and teams will be no more 20% of their current size. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by murrlong on 2016-11-29; known on 2020-01-02; judged wrong by olimay on 2020-02-01.
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Personal – I manage to find a way to store my bike at ground level, short of the stairwell, before start of 2020-02-01 ( 55% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-01.
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[Vikings] Lagertha survives season 6 ( 40% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-02-01.
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[Vikings] Bjorn is elected king of all Norway ( 60% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-02-01.