Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.
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US Secretary of State to visit Iran by 2020-01-25 ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-26; known on 2020-01-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-31.
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US President to visit Iran by 2020-01-25 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-26; known on 2020-01-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-31.
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Mukhtarbay Otelbayev will not win a Millennium Prize for his work on the Navier-Stokes equations. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-24; known on 2020-01-25; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-31.
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Health, UK – News reports of a confirmed case of 2019-nCoV in UK by deadline. ( 74% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-23; known on 2020-02-28; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-31.
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January 2020 VIX call at 22 will be in the money ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-01-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-01-31.
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There will be more than 8000 human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be reported before 2021 ( 71% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-30.
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Tech – Travelex website is once again offering online automated foreign exchange services before start of 2020-01-27. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-19; known on 2020-01-27; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-27.
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Personal – My heating has been fixed by 2020-01-25 ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-01-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-27.
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Personal, Productivity – I get through “Economic Implications Of Software Minds” by deadline. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-19; known on 2020-01-27; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-01-26.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 5,000 and 7,500 (2x–3x growth) ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-01-26.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Less than 3,500 (i.e., growth to 1.4x the current total or less) ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-26.
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“10^18 FLOPS by 2020” —Shane Legg ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-25.
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There will be more than 5 Metaculus domains on 14 Jan 2020 ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-08-14; known on 2020-01-14; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-25.
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Chinese People's Liberation Army to be (overtly) deployed to Hong Kong by 2020-01-23 ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-01-24; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-25.
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I will not get SJS from modafinil ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-10-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-22.
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There will be at least five times more human trafficking arrests in the United States during the four years after Trump became president than the four years prior. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-02-13; known on 2020-01-20; judged wrong by regex on 2020-01-22.
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Personal – I weigh in at below 80kg on or before 2020-01-25. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-01-26; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-01-21.
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In 2019, I’ll be able to get a pizza delivered to my house by a robot. ( 38% confidence; 15 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-21.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Georges St-Pierre ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-21.
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WIMPs will be discovered by beginning of 2020. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2015-12-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-20.
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'I am optimistic that the answer to the mass question will be found within a few years, whether or not it is the mythical Higgs boson' —John Ellis ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-20.
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“By 2020 some kind of CO2 emissions regulation (cap and trade) will be in place in the US” —Jack ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-20.
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Busy beaver number for 6 found by 2020. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-20; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-20.
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Tech – SpaceX successfully completes emergency crew rescue test before deadline. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-01-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-01-19.
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Tech – Travelex website is once again offering online automated foreign exchange services before 2020-01-18 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-01-19; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-19.
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[Personal] Climbing will still be my primary form of exercise by 2020 (continuous between 2016 and 2020). ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2016-07-25; known on 2020-01-16; judged right by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18.
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Personal – My heating has been fixed by 2020-01-18 ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-01-18; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-18.
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The FANG group will have their valuations cut in half from their 2015 peak. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-09; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-17.
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Rex Tillerson testifies publicly before Congress before 2020 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-17.
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Rick Perry testifies publicly before the Senate Armed Services committee before 2020 ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-17.
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A whistleblower claims that the US-Mexico border crossing statistics under the Trump administration are not accurate ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-17.
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At least one more indictment is made as part of a case referred by Mueller, before 2020 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-17.
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Gender gap in software industry worse in 2016 than 2009. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-17.
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Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate by 2020 ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-08-06; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-17.
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Australia will no longer be part of the Commonwealth by 2020 ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-17; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-17.
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We will have permanent off-Earth colonies by 2020 ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-04; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-17.
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I pass the Automattic chat interview ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-01-02; known on 2020-01-16; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-01-16.
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Donald Trump will serve his first term unimpeached. ( 72% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by gurgus on 2020-01-15.
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Libyan crude oil production to average above 1 MMbpd for 2019 Q4 ( 72% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-12; known on 2020-01-15; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-15.
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Ken Jennings wins the Jeopardy Greatest of All Time Tournament tonight ( 45% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-01-15; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15.
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Ken Jennings wins the Jeopardy Greatest of All Time Tournament ( 70% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-01-22; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15.
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[Política nacional] Alguma versão da Reforma da Previdência será aprovada até o final de 2019. ( 65% confidence )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2019-03-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2020-01-14.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2021. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-09; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-05.
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AMD 3rd Gen Mobile Processors will be released Q2 2020 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2019-08-11; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2020-01-13.
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AMD 3rd Gen Mobile Processors will reduce power consumption by at least 20% from the prior generation ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2019-08-11; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by lettergram on 2020-01-13.
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[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] a member of the DPP ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-12.
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[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] a member of the KMT ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
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[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-12.
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[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] William Lai (賴淸德) ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.