PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por Podemos ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por el PP ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por el PSOE ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se repetiran sin formar gobierno ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.

[Cato: The number of predictions in December 2019 by Cato to be exactly] 13 or more ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-11-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-07.

N is sent back to Russia ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] under $40 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for November 2019 to exceed 50% ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-01-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.

Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.

There will be (physical) Google stores before 2020. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Mati on 2020-01-03.

There will have been modular smart phones on the market before 2020. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2020-01-03.

I will start a PhD before 2020. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2020-01-03.

Dolfi can wash clothes correctly. ( 85% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2015-03-12; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2020-01-03.

I will finish 8 or more books this year ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Jach on 2020-01-03.

Sam Altman: Current YC Winter 2015 batch worth at least $3b by Jan 1, 2020 ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-01-03.

Sam Altman: Stripe, Zenefits, Instacart, Mixpanel, Teespring, Optimizely, Coinbase, Docker, and Weebly to be collectively worth at least $27b by Jan 1, 2020 ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-01-03.

The majority of people will not worship man-made Gods by the year 2030. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by dragonfly on 2011-07-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.

The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sdr on 2013-11-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.

A $1,000 personal computer has as much raw power as the human brain. —Ray Kurzweil ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.

Prediction: By December 31st, 2019, AMD will sell a commercially available 48-core, 96-thread desktop CPU, compatible with currently available motherboards, costing $2,000 USD or less (before tax, shipping, cooler etc). ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.

In Alice Grove, the Night Walker will be activated in some way. Arbitary time limit chosen. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Lambert on 2015-04-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by enoch on 2020-01-03.

[OMX Tallinn] to perform better in 2019 than in 2018 ( 75% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[OMX Tallinn] to outperform S&P 500 in 2019 ( 27% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[OMX Tallinn] to outperform OMX Riga in 2019 ( 42% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

Living thylacine specimen to be confirmed in 2019 ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[Personal] I will finish at least 52 books in 2019. ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in December for which data are published ( 43% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.

China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 EOY ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[Politics] Donald Trump to publicly express support for Taiwanese independence in 2019 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[Fighting] Dominick Cruz to fight in 2019 ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[Fighting] Daniel Cormier to fight Jon Jones in 2019 ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

I will move to another city by the end of 2019. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[Fighting] Jon Jones to test positive for prohibited substances before UFC 235 ( 2% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-18; known on 2019-03-03; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[Fighting] Georges St-Pierre to fight again in 2019 ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers )