[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Chang Ya-chung (張亞中) ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.

[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Chou Hsi-wei (周錫瑋) ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.

[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Eric Chu (朱立倫) ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.

[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Terry Gou (郭台銘) ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.

[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Wang Jyn-pyng (王金平) ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.

[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] James Soong (宋楚瑜) ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.

[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Chang San-cheng (張善政) ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.

[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-16; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of December 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] November 2019 ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-01-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.

Personal, Productivity – I clear my Anki due cards in active decks by deadline. ( 75% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-05; known on 2020-01-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-11.

There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2020 ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by dvolk on 2020-01-10.

Throughout 2020, 100% of movies to come out of hollywood will be reboots of old series, only with the genders swapped ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-10.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Oct-Nov-Dec 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-01-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-10.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Oct-Nov-Dec 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-01-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-10.

Sensors/cameras in london public sewers, at least one UK citizen fined for putting tampons down the toilet ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-22; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

Almost all commercial airplanes will have wifi by 2019 ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by cmessinger on 2015-08-17; known on 2019-01-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

In five years, we will carry one device instead of many (phone, tablet, laptop), with various external inputs based on need (keyboard, mouse) & outputs (big screen, projector). ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Legioona on 2015-09-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

Tesla's stock price will be below $200 per share on 01/01/2020. ( 60% confidence )

Created by FestiveBleak on 2018-07-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

“SpaceX Starship reaches orbit” ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

The UK will hold a second EU referendum before it officially is no longer part of the EU ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jasticE on 2016-06-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

Establishment Republicans split from GOP and start a third party. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

'75% probability of [eyewear computing] being mainstream, or at least not unusual, by 2020.' —orangecat ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

Self driving vehicle (level 4) drives legally on public UK roads before end 2019 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

The desktop and laptop computer industry will be made obsolete by modular smart phones or mobile devices by 2020. E.g., a smart phone capable of wirelessly interfacing with a keyboard, mouse, and monitor. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. —Ray Kurz ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

“We will end the decade with some mobile [electronics] energy storage system with an energy density close to or better than fat metabolism.” —W.H. Pearson ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

Most people own more than one P.C., though the concept of what a “computer” is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilit ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

“By 2020, GE crops will be grown on 10 fold more acreage than they are today, will be widely accepted by consumers and will have clearly benefited the goals of sustainable agriculture” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

“Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain” ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PP+Vox+Ciudadanos+NA+ ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PSOE+Podemos+MP sin indepes ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del PPSOE ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.

[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por ninguno de los anteriores (independiente, Teruel Existe…) ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.