Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 4 ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 3 ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 2 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics] PredictIt & FiveThirtyEight “A”-grade polls to agree on Dem frontrunner ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 2 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 3 ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 4 ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 5 ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 6 ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 7 ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] lower than the current rating of -10.9% ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] less than -5% ( 88% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] negative ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] lower than -15% ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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I could finish a 1L bottle of water in 30 seconds or less. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-09-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for August 2019 to exceed 110 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-09-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-20.
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Federal Reserve cuts rate by 25bps on September FOMC meeting ( 90% confidence )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-18; judged right by batemancapital on 2019-09-19.
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[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-19; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-19.
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[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-19; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-19.
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[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-19; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-19.
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[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-19; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-19.
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Test driven design has started to gain traction in building design ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2014-09-16; known on 2019-09-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-09-16.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] Iran to produce at least 2.6 MMbpd ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-09-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] OECD inventory to exceed 2900 MMb ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-09-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] OPEC to produce at least 31 MMbpd ( 51% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-09-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] UK to produce at least 1.3 MMbpd ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-09-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] Nigeria to produce at least 1.6 MMbpd ( 68% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-09-16; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] Venezuela to produce at least 1.1 MMbpd ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-09-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8 ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10 ( 38% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11 ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 14 ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 15 ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 16 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 17 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 18 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 19 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 20 ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[US politics] Andrew Yang to participate in the third Democratic primary debate ( 80% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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GPT-2 1.5B or a 3rd-party model trained with at least 40GB of text will be released before 2020 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by AlexLamson on 2019-05-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by AlexLamson on 2019-09-15.
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The Belgian federal government formation takes at least three months from the date of the election ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-09-11; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-09-11.
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[Commodities] As of September 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of August 2019 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-11.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of August 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] July 2019 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-09-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-09.