Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Politics, UK – Theresa May is subject to a leadership challenge before 2019-01-01. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Congress will not extend copyright durations in 2018. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2018-01-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Politics, US – A department of the Federal government is eliminated before the end of 2018 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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EA – Schistosomiasis Control Initiative remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018 ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Democrats will control the house of representatives ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dkasser on 2018-04-08; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Theresa May UK PM throughout 2018 ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Bitcoin will end 2018 above $50,000 USD ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daedalus_21 on 2018-02-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Chris Dixon: Amazon.com will be using bitcoins in 5 years (by 1/1/2019) ( 33% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-13; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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2017: Numerous companies develop different vaccination techniques for HIV. ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Jared Kushner is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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2018: After finding the vaccine for HIV, researchers are able to start clinical trials for cures/vaccines for viruses like the cold and flu. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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For at least one full hour in 2018, Ethereum will have a total market capitalization of $250B or more, as judged by coinmarketcap.com (or a commonly accepted alternative if coinmarketcap.com no longer exists) ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The investigation run by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is still ongoing by the end of 2018 (and is still run by Mueller, e.g., Mueller has not died, or been removed, or formally concluded his investigation). ( 67% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-01.
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Amazon will choose either Miami or Boston as their HQ2 (me) ( 50% confidence )
Created by workbean on 2018-01-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Ripple (XRP) is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Ripple (XRP) is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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“A rash of new-age-techno cults sweep an exhausted Russia.” ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-01-01.
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Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2019 ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.
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AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2019 ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.
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A second Falcon Heavy launch by the end of 2018 ( 85% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-02-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.
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I will finish 6 or more books this year ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jach on 2018-01-02; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by Jach on 2019-01-01.
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I am still at SFDC in 3 years ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Jach on 2019-01-01.
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SaskTel privatized ( 21% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“The last of Nigeria's rainforests have disappeared” in 2018 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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'Cheques are phased out in the UK' by 2019 ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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If Greece is bailed out under condition of austerity, these conditions will cease to be enforced within Greece by 2018, or never be enforced at all. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2019. ( 36% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Canada's Federal NDP will adopt the LEAP manifesto as official party policy ( 58% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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SpaceX will fly a mission with crew around the moon by end of 2018. ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by trishume on 2017-02-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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North Korea will test-detonate a nuclear weapon in 2018 ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trump to end 2018 with ≥40% approval rating as aggregated by 538. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Francis is still Pope on 1/1/19 ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Kim Jong Un is leader of North Korea on 12/31/18 ( 90% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-03; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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A democrat will win the SF mayoral special election. ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ardenlk on 2017-12-30; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Israeli troops on the ground in foreign country (not Gaza or West Bank) by end of 2018 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-02-10; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2019-01-01.
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By January 1, 2019 War between North Korea and at least one of the US, Britain, China, Japan, South Korea, or the collapse of the North Korean government. ( 25% confidence; 15 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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'The African Central Bank is established' in 2018 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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4chan to remain a top-1000 site by the end of 2018 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“The fertility rate in China drops below the replacement level, and nothing the government can do can get Chinese couples to have more than 1.5 kids each.” ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Google will acquire Yelp by 2018 ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“Polygamy is granted legal status in the US.” ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Quora to make an independent IPO by 2018 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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China will fully seize executive power in Hong Kong by 2018. ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Nick.dylan on 2017-04-14; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Maduro shot within 30 days of Óscar Pérez publicly posting bitcoin address ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Emperor Akihito will abdicate the throne by January 1, 2019. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-18; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trump will launch at least one significant war resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths before US midterm elections. (deaths can include post midterms; we'll just have to judge if any small wars seem likely to go over threshold) ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2019-01-01.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.