PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will get my passport this week ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-22; known on 2013-01-24; judged right by reesarose on 2014-01-24.

Elizabeth, Leah, and Tilia will together cause at least twenty women to make prediction book accounts. ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-01-29; judged wrong by mitodoteira on 2014-02-04.

Elizabeth, Leah, and Tilia will together cause at least ten women to make prediction book accounts. ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-01-29; judged wrong by briennestrohl on 2014-02-06.

CFAR will get a grant from the American Mathematical Society to fund SPARC 2014. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-02-15.

Conditional on the current MP4 RfC failing to gain consensus for use of the format, the WMF will enable uploading in MP4 anyway and be met with community outcry ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Vulture on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-02-18; judged wrong by Vulture on 2014-02-20.

Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality reaches a conclusion (not counting chapters explicitly denoted as Epilogues) before the end of 2014 and also before Homestuck finishes Act 7 (not counting “Psyche” fake-endings). ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by orthonormal on 2014-01-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2015-01-15.

This year will DEFINITELY BE BETTER than the previous year. Last year really sucked. Please guys, work to make this real! Work to make this year RULE! ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Pandster on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-11-16; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

There will be a snow storm tonight ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-01-21; judged right by reesarose on 2014-01-22.

Someone will convince me betting money is an excellent means of epistemic calibration despite the arguments I made in my FB post about it. (OP here https://www.facebook.com/strohl89/posts/10152167620634598?stream_ref=10) ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-01-25; judged wrong by briennestrohl on 2014-01-25.

I'll cause at least five people to start using Prediction Book by the end of today. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-01-22; judged right by briennestrohl on 2014-01-22.

It will snow wednesday ( 50% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-01-22; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-01-23.

Australia will win TUF:Nations Canada VS Australia (middleweight) ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by mad on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-12-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-11.

Australia will win TUF:Nations Canada VS Australia (Welterweight) ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by mad on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-11.

Survivor will have an all winners season for season 30 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by mad on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by mad on 2015-05-01.

Anderson Silva will announce his retirement from UFC by January 1st, 2016 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by mad on 2014-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by mad on 2016-01-02.

Ronda Rousey will remain the UFC women's bantamweight champion at the end of 2014 ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by mad on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by mad on 2015-01-01.

Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 20 wagers; 19 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.

I have an iron deficiency ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Vulture on 2014-01-20; known on 2018-04-22.

When the Wikimedia Commons RfC on the MP4 format closes, the majority of the !votes will be against any use of the format ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Vulture on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-02-14; judged right by Vulture on 2014-02-15.

I will get a job after I graduate from high school. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Snowshi on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-07-30; judged wrong by Snowshi on 2014-07-30.

A zombie apocalypse could happen. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Snowshi on 2014-01-20; known on 2050-01-16.

I'll complete my first job application ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PaulaWalla on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-01-21; judged wrong by PaulaWalla on 2014-01-21.

I'll study 2 hours ( 60% confidence )

Created by Mares789 on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-01-20; judged wrong by Mares789 on 2014-01-21.

UA would not join russian custom union in next two years ( 70% confidence )

Created by vasaka on 2014-01-20; known on 2016-01-01.

I will leave my italian duolingo streak unbroken until at least January 1st, 2015 ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by mad on 2014-01-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mad on 2015-01-01.

I will have 2000 Anki cards within 6 months in my collections (it's only 12 a day) ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lettergram on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-07-19; judged wrong by atroche on 2014-08-23.

Sherlock season 4 will be out by Christmas. ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by shadow1537 on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-25.

The Broncos will win the Super Bowl. ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-02-03; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-02-03.

Gangnam Style (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0) will have 2 billion views by the end of 2014. ( 82% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by dk on 2014-06-08.

I will level up on habitrpg this week ( 93% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Duyut on 2014-01-19; known on 2014-01-26; judged right by Duyut on 2014-01-27.

Skillshare.im will have active users. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-01-19; known on 2016-01-19; judged wrong by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2016-01-20.

I will read this book, Nonviolent communication ( 100% confidence )

Created by Duyut on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-19; judged right by Duyut on 2014-01-18.

There will be heavy winds acting up across the United States within the next week ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Nomi on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-22; judged right by Snowshi on 2014-02-04.

I will finish reading On Lisp before 2015. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.

High Court will rule for a re-election of the WA Senate. ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Merinnan on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by mad on 2014-02-20.

There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )

Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.

I will create a movie for Campus Moviefest this year. ( 40% confidence )

Created by EvanB on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-27; judged right by EvanB on 2014-01-28.

I will participate in Campus Moviefest this year. ( 70% confidence )

Created by EvanB on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-21; judged right by EvanB on 2014-01-21.

I won't end up going to the Alexis Ohanian event tomorrow ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by EvanB on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-19; judged right by EvanB on 2014-01-19.

A law-enforcement agency or someone(s) interested in law enforcement will be revealed to have been the creator(s) of Bitcoin, and will have done so in order to track illegal dealings. ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by EvanB on 2014-01-18; known on 2074-01-18.

I will go to the LessWrong social meetup tonight ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by atroche on 2014-01-17; known on 2014-01-17; judged right by atroche on 2014-01-20.

Star Trek Into Darkness will win Best Visual Effects. ( 15% confidence )