PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

My team will win IEEEXtreme. ( 0% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-26; known on 2013-11-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-30.

Google will be the first company with a market cap of $1 trillion. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-10-26; known on 2030-01-01.

My friend added me on Facebook. ( 33% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-25; known on 2013-10-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-25.

PubMed's comment system will be shut down before 2015. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-10-25; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-24.

PubMed's comment system will have some form of human moderation before 2015. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-10-24; known on 2015-01-01.

I will post something new on my blog before November. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-10-24; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-11.

I will not live at home next year. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2014-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-01.

Over 95% percent of former student athletes have made a donation to the UB annual fund. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23.

The algorithm I specified for Question 2c on the midterm was incorrect. ( 75% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-11-06; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23.

The bridge to Goat Island will be open. ( 50% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23.

Our landline phone will be fixed when we check. ( 80% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23.

The Niagara Falls will be lit up when we visit. ( 95% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23.

I will be satisfied with project demo ( 66% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-12-06; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-12-11.

PCB finished and sent for printing by end of week 7 ( 30% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-11-15; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-11-17.

Time-lapse dolly motorized and controlled by uC by end of week 7 ( 30% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-11-15; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-11-17.

Python SAR algorithm done by end of week 6 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-11-08; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-11-09.

All needed parts ordered by end of week 5 ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-11-02.

Test will show I have very low cortisol | I get a salivary cortisol test ( 80% confidence )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-10-22; known on 2013-11-19; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-26.

There will be > 3 students in my course on saturday who haven't formally enrolled. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by mischan on 2013-10-22; known on 2013-10-26; judged wrong by mischan on 2013-10-26.

I will score greater than 85% on my MAT 265 Mastery Test. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-10-22; known on 2013-10-24; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-11.

I will attempt the Uberman sleep schedule over winter break 2013-14 and last at least 7 days (take 42 naps on the schedule without other sleep, and wake up from the 42nd nap on time). ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-22; known on 2014-01-26; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-26.

I will not attempt the Uberman sleep schedule over winter break 2013-14. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-22; known on 2014-01-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-26.

I will receive at least 90% on the Discrete Math midterm from today. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-21; known on 2013-11-11; judged right by tylercurtis on 2013-11-13.

I will get a ticket to the Hillary Clinton event on Wednesday. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-21; known on 2013-10-21; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-21.

The composite American from 2014-2024 will be more supportive of abortion restrictions than the composite American from 2003-2013. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Omid on 2013-10-21; known in 4 days.

I will get an A- in algorithms. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-20; known on 2013-12-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.

The price of Bitcoin will be <=$50 before 20 December 2013. ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-19; known on 2013-12-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-20.

Alastair Roche will return to Melbourne from his San Francisco trip convinced to stay there. Convinced means on asking 'you should probably go to live in San Francisco permanently soon', he says 'yes', where the only alternative is 'no' and 'maybe' is not ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RyanCarey on 2013-10-19; known on 2013-12-11; judged wrong by dusk on 2015-04-05.

Contingent on his winning the nomination, Rand Paul will make double digit gains over John McCain among minority voters. ( 60% confidence )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-10-18; known on 2016-12-31.

Ted Cruz will not win a term as US Senator contiguous with his current term. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-10-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

Both major party presidential candidates will express support for softening punishments for drug offenses during the 2016 US presidential campaign. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-10-18; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

Sheep Marketplace will cease operating within a year. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-17; known on 2014-10-17; judged right by Grognor on 2014-08-20.

Sheep Marketplace will cease operating within a month. ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-17; known on 2013-11-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-18.

I got a score in the range 65-71/90 (inclusive) on the prelim that I will receive back tomorrow. ( 60% confidence )

Created by azax1 on 2013-10-17; known on 2013-10-18; judged right by azax1 on 2013-10-17.

I will get a homework average of at least 95% for the whole semester for algorithms. ( 69% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-13.

I will get a homework average of at least 92.5% for the whole semester for algorithms. ( 73% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-13.

I will get at least 89% on the algorithms final. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.

I will get at least 54 points on Part II of the algorithms midterm. ( 69% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-11-06; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-18.

I got more than 29 points on Part I of my algorithms midterm. ( 43% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-11-06; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-03.

I got less than 29 points on Part I of my algorithms midterm. ( 13% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-11-06; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-03.

Democrats to gain seats in the next House midterm general election. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-16; known on 2014-11-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-11-06.

The Hawaiian punch will be gone from the fridge. ( 80% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-15; known on 2013-10-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-15.

There won't be any questions involving little-omega or little-o notation on the algorithms midterm this week. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-15; known on 2013-10-19; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-18.

The majority of people eligible for Obamacare won't be enrolled by April 13, 2014. ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by recondaddy on 2013-10-13; known on 2014-04-13; judged right by procran on 2014-05-18.

There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2033. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by qap on 2013-10-13; known on 2034-01-01.

I will fail to follow through on my dinner plans tonight. ( 40% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-12; known on 2013-10-12; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2013-10-14.

My friend will get the right answer in algorithms class on 10/11/2013. ( 80% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-10-11; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11.

I will get some unexpected points on Problem 2 of 10-11 algorithms homework. ( 33% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-11-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-30.

FF: we will use multiple logos. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by timesuptim on 2013-10-11; known on 2015-06-30; judged right by zzkt on 2013-12-15.

[redactedal] was the one calling my house this morning. ( 70% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-10-11; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11.

New Calvin and Hobbes strips released before 2024 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Omid on 2013-10-11; known on 2024-01-01.

[mredacteds] will get an A in algorithms this semester. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2014-01-27; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-04.

[mredactedw] will get an A in algorithms this semester. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.

I will get an A in algorithms this semester. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.

The second Android: Netrunner big box expansion will feature Jinteki (in the same way as the first featured Haas-Bioroid). ( 90% confidence )

Created by Thelas on 2013-10-10; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by Thelas on 2014-07-02.

I will post my planned comment on Occam's Razor on Less Wrong (see http://lesswrong.com/lw/s0/where_recursive_justification_hits_bottom/9vi3) in the next 6 months, as opposed to later than that (or never). ( 3% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-10; known on 2014-04-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-10.

USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Omid on 2013-10-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.

I will receive at least 50 special comments on my special Facebook status before I go to bed tomorrow. ( 20% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-10; known on 2013-10-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11.

I will already have a comment on my special Facebook status when I log on now. ( 60% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-10; known on 2013-10-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-10.

Tomorrow I will deploy a fix for the biography textbox issue. ( 95% confidence )

Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-10-09; known on 2013-10-11; judged right by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-10-16.

I will be asked out by a girl before the end of the Spring 2014 semester. ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-09; known on 2014-05-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-10.

I will attend Kent Hack Enough 2013. ( 25% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-09; known on 2013-10-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11.

Government shutdown to extend past November 1 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-09; known on 2013-11-02; judged wrong by nshepperd on 2013-10-17.

FF: a prolonged series of predictions (and reflection on the predictions) will help separate things which can be predicted (and which it is useful to predict) from those which are immune to prediction. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by zzkt on 2013-10-09; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by zzkt on 2015-10-23.

SR: <30 related arrests within a year. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-08; known on 2014-10-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-10-01.

Spice & Wolf season 3 will be released within 5 years. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-08; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-10-08.

FF: we will decide to collectively keep track of various predictions ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by zzkt on 2013-10-08; known on 2013-10-12; judged right by zzkt on 2013-10-11.

My personal website will be up-and-running again by 2014 ( 15% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-08-01.

My personal website will be up-and-running again by the end of the month ( 1% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-06; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2013-11-04.

The Swiss Basic Income initiative will pass the vote and be implemented. ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-10-05; known on 2014-06-03; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

Wendy Davis elected governor of Texas. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Omid on 2013-10-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-05.

SR: the Maryland employee plea-bargained & cooperated with the government ( 75% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by gwern on 2013-12-30.

SR: the server imaged in July 2013 was in neither Romania nor Latvia nor Sweden ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by gwern on 2016-10-06.

SR: the server imaged in July 2013 was in Sweden ( 20% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-10-06.

SR: the server imaged in July 2013 was in Latvia ( 20% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-10-06.

SR: the server imaged in July 2013 was in Romania ( 20% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-10-06.

SR: Ross Ulbricht was the original founder and only owner of SR ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-04.

SR: the NYC trial will finish within a year ( 33% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2014-10-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-05.

SR: the Maryland trial will finish within a year. ( 25% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2014-10-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-05.

SR: the dk.onion forums will become inaccessible on or before 22 October 2013 ( 38% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-10-22.

SR: the dk.onion forums will become inaccessible on or before 9 November 2013 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-11-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-10.

The Department of Labor will not make the September 2013 Employment Situation news release by October 12, 2013. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-12; judged right by foo on 2013-10-14.

In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of less than $40 billion per month. ( 25% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-12-18; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of more than $40 billion per month. ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-12-18; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of $40 billion per month. ( 75% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-12-18; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of more than $45 billion per month. ( 0% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-12-18; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of less than $45 billion per month. ( 25% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-12-18; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of $45 billion per month. ( 75% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-12-18; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of more than $45 billion per month. ( 0% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-30; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of less than $45 billion per month. ( 15% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-30; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of $45 billion per month. ( 85% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-30; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of more than $40 billion per month. ( 0% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-30; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of less than $40 billion per month. ( 15% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-30; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to continue purchasing mortgage-backed securities at a rate of $40 billion per month. ( 85% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-30; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

SR: The FBI/government will gain control in any way of DPR's ~฿600,000 within 2 years. ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-04; known on 2015-10-04.

SR: The FBI/government will gain control in any way of DPR's ~฿600,000 within 1 year. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-04; known on 2014-10-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-05.

The US debt ceiling will be increased by October 17, 2013 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by foo on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-10-17; judged right by schimmy on 2013-10-17.

The Buffalo Bills will make the playoffs during the 2013-2014 NFL season. ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.

Government shutdown will continue past Oct 15, 2013 (ie more than 2 weeks since its beginning) ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-10-16; judged right by prototrout on 2013-10-16.

Government shutdown will continue past Oct 8, 2013 (ie more than a week since its beginning) ( 79% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-10-08; judged right by foo on 2013-10-08.

Statistics

Recent Predictions