PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

“Blade of Vengeance” will not move west of Penrith before mid 2015. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2014-02-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-07-02.

The internet will preach the virtues of open source and/or Adobe updates to me when I request help regarding RAW files and PS. Neither will actually be helpful. ( 90% confidence )

Created by vyctryx on 2014-02-01; known on 2014-02-08; judged right by vyctryx on 2014-02-01.

The next president or vice president who is not a white male will either be a hispanic man or a white woman. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbluphin on 2014-02-01; known on 2026-02-01.

I will read 120 books in 2014. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Xammer on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Xammer on 2015-01-03.

someone will come bother me in my room today ( 90% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-02-07; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-09.

Scotland votes 'yes' for independence. ( 38% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by lettergram on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.

A portfolio with one third of each TWTR, CAS, and GE will do worst than the Dow Jones (not counting dividends) between February 1st 2014 and January 1st 2015 (excluded). ( 60% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Mati on 2015-01-05.

I will read 50 books in 2014. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by azax1 on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-12-10.

I will read 35 books in 2014. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by azax1 on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-12-10.

I will read 30 books in 2014. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by azax1 on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-12-10.

I will read 25 books in 2014. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by azax1 on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-12-10.

Amanda Knox will be found guilty by the Italian Supreme Court. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by adbge on 2014-01-31; known on 2018-01-31; judged wrong by CarlShulman on 2015-05-04.

Contingent on losing her appeal, Amanda Knox will be extradited to Italy to serve her sentence. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by adbge on 2014-01-31; known on 2018-01-31; judged wrong by lettergram on 2020-11-05.

A portfolio with 10% of each GOOG, AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, EBAY, ORB, MMM, NVDA, DDD, and FMI will do better than the Dow Jones (not counting dividends) between February 1st 2014 and January 1st 2015 (excluded). ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-01-05.

I will go to the grocery store today ( 60% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-03.

I will work out today ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-01-31; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2014-02-03.

UAV's/drones will be commercially viable before self driving cars ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JosefK on 2014-01-30; known on 2050-01-01.

Google will include Bitcoin in the list of currencies that you can automatically convert through the search bar in 2014. ( 39% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Tenoke on 2014-01-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by adbge on 2014-07-30.

I'll get the job ( 80% confidence )

Created by NikiTaylor on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-02-03; judged wrong by NikiTaylor on 2014-02-03.

I will do my homework this weekend ( 30% confidence )

Created by NikiTaylor on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-02-03; judged right by NikiTaylor on 2014-02-03.

Ray Kurzweil: We can “switch off our fat cells” by 2020 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qap on 2014-01-30; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

I will intern at a financial firm this summer. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-09-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-09-01.

Volume is less than 1.5 m^3 ( 79% confidence )

Created by vasaka on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by vasaka on 2014-02-01.

weight is more then 150 kg ( 76% confidence )

Created by vasaka on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by vasaka on 2014-02-01.

V of our things is <2.5m^3 and >2m^3 ( 80% confidence )

Created by mimikria on 2014-01-29; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by mimikria on 2014-02-05.

my intake next tuesday will take around an hour ( 80% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-29; known on 2014-02-05; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-09.

HP MoR: At some point, Harry (or someone) will break a time-turner to get out of a sticky situation. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by 75th on 2014-01-29; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

MIRI will continue operating in end of 2014. ( 92% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

CFAR will continue operating in end of 2014. ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

At least 1 LW post > 100 karma in 2014. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.

2014 Less Wrong Survey will have < 20% female. ( 89% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mad on 2015-01-06.

2014 Less Wrong Survey will have > % female than 2013 Less Wrong Survey. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mad on 2015-01-06.

Slate Star Codex will get more hits in 2014 than in 2013. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-10.

Slate Star Codex will remain active until end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-10.

In 2014, there is a mass shooting in USA killing > 10 people. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

There is a terrorist attack in the USA killing > 100 people. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

No nuclear weapon used in anger in 2014. ( 98% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.

Obama will remain President of USA at end of 2014. ( 98% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

Israel does not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-16.

Egypt's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.

US government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

China's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.

North Korea's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.

Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000. ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

the eval will take a while ( 80% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-28; known on 2014-01-29; judged right by reesarose on 2014-01-29.

I will have 3 cups of coffee today ( 90% confidence )

Created by vasaka on 2014-01-28; known on 2014-01-29; judged right by vasaka on 2014-01-29.

My sister will want to do just dance ( 40% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-01-28; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-01-28.

rishta will come ( 60% confidence )

Created by mimikria on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-02-02; judged right by mimikria on 2014-02-05.

nobody will call about bed till 29.01 :( ( 75% confidence )

Created by mimikria on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-01-29; judged right by mimikria on 2014-01-29.

bitcoin will cost more than $1500 by the end of year ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by vasaka on 2014-01-27; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-01-01.

i'll sell the table today ( 90% confidence )

Created by mimikria on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-01-28; judged wrong by mimikria on 2014-01-28.

hanoi flat will be at 5th floor ( 75% confidence )

Created by mimikria on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-02-04; judged right by mimikria on 2014-02-05.

Will come home before 23 ( 90% confidence )

Created by vasaka on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-01-27; judged right by vasaka on 2014-01-28.

I will live higher then 5th floor ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by vasaka on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-02-04; judged right by vasaka on 2014-02-04.

My hanoy building would have more than 10 levels ( 65% confidence )

Created by vasaka on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-02-04; judged wrong by vasaka on 2014-02-04.

Bitcoins will reach more than 2000$ (at least one time) during the year 2014. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

I will have heard of at least one of the top 5 websites on this page: http://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/1w6ixc/what_is_the_best_website_that_nobody_knows_about/ ( 90% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-26; known on 2014-01-27; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-26.

An hyperloop will be in use before 2030. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2030-01-01.

We can find a table with two available outlets at Rao's. ( 45% confidence )

Created by tedks on 2014-01-26; known on 2014-01-26; judged wrong by tedks on 2014-01-27.

The Clock of the Long Now will show a 1 as its first digit. ( 1% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 9999-12-31.

Someone will send my at least 10 USD or CAD on PayPal (mathieu.roy.37@gmail.com) before April 2nd 2014. ( 1% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2014-04-03; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-04-03.

I will not go on this website between January 1st 2040 and January 1st 2050. ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2050-01-01.

More Google glass will be sold in the first 80 days than iPads 1 were sold in the first 80 days (which is 3 millions). ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-03-28.

My parents will come back tomorrow ( 50% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-26; known on 2014-01-27; judged right by reesarose on 2014-01-27.

I will make good predictions in 2014. (ie. 40 to 60% of my predictions with an estimate between 40 and 60% will be true.) ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by Mati on 2015-01-05.

Scott Alexander will join Tumblr ( 50% confidence )

Created by fiftytwo on 2014-01-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by fiftytwo on 2015-01-02.

Google's new robotics acquisitions won't produce any consumer products, but will produce platforms ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2014-01-26; known on 2017-01-26; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-26.

my sister will yell today ( 80% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-25; known on 2014-01-26; judged right by reesarose on 2014-01-26.

At least 5 wins. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Mares789 on 2014-01-25; known on 2014-01-25; judged right by Mares789 on 2014-01-25.

There'll be an official e-cash system (in competition with bitcoins or whatever the surviving coin system is) by end of 2024. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-25; known in 3 days.

Ed will join PredictionBook. ( 65% confidence )

Created by vyctryx on 2014-01-25; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by vyctryx on 2014-02-01.

My sayat.me account will be rick-rolled within the week. (http://sayat.me/vyctryx) ( 75% confidence )

Created by vyctryx on 2014-01-25; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by vyctryx on 2014-02-01.

'Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.' will continue for a second season. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by bluebart on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-09-24; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.

Adrian Fohr will succeed in his effort, 'to get %40 of Intro Microeconomics teachers to use his video blog as a teaching tool.' ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by moore.thunder on 2014-01-24; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by moore.thunder on 2016-01-04.

Mukhtarbay Otelbayev will not win a Millennium Prize for his work on the Navier-Stokes equations. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by adbge on 2014-01-24; known on 2020-01-25; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-31.

I will still think Her is the best movie of 2014 by the end of 2014 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Kytael on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by Kytael on 2015-01-03.

Between now and the end of May, I will miss fewer than ten lectures ( 40% confidence )

Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by Rowan93 on 2014-02-10.

By the end of the year, I will have reached a geohash point for the Aberystwyth graticule ( 5% confidence )

Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Rowan93 on 2015-01-01.

I will weigh at least 80kg by the end of June ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by Rowan93 on 2014-07-01.

I will pass the exams for every module I take this semester ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-08-01; judged wrong by Rowan93 on 2014-07-13.

I will still not have blacked out from alcohol consumption by the end of this June ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by Rowan93 on 2014-07-01.

I will still be actively using HabitRPG by June 2014 ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Rowan93 on 2014-06-01.

my mom will not remember to get dinosaur chicken nuggets ( 60% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-01-25; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-01-25.

HPMOR: final chapter to be published before Dec 1st of 2014 ( 28% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by sdr on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by on 2014-12-01.

HPMOR: final chapter to be published before Jan 1st of 2015 ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by sdr on 2014-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2015-01-04.

Construction of Hyperloop will be approved by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Esuba on 2014-01-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

Apple will announce Iphone 6 by the end of February. ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Jedijuggler on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-02-28; judged wrong by Jedijuggler on 2014-02-28.

My next 10 showers will be cold showers. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-02-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-04.

Someone will sing me happy birthday tomorrow. ( 80% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-01-24; judged right by reesarose on 2014-01-24.

I will try to get my company to use their own implementation of predictionbook as an internal prediction market and will fail to convince even 25% of employees that this would be a good idea ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by ciil on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-05-23; judged right by ciil on 2014-05-23.

I will have an internship this summer. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-06-01.

I will make an A in Improv. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-01.

Netflix still won't have random shuffle playlists or per episode playlists by end of 2014 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.

News will report stories of robotic submission of NCAA pool entries to Warren Buffett's 2014 pool. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.

2014: No one will win $1billion from Warren Buffett by submitting a perfect NCAA pool ( 99% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-03-27.

Princeton researchers: Facebook will lose 80% of its users by end of 2017 ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Mati on 2017-12-31.

I will still be actively using HabitRPG on March 1, 2014. ( 60% confidence )

Created by mitodoteira on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by mitodoteira on 2014-03-02.

Jess will have written goals by end Feb 2014. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by waveman on 2014-05-28.

Clojure 1.6 will be released before 2015 ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-23; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-03-25.

Market cap in USD of top ten altcoins as a percentage of bitcoin market cap in USD to grow by at least 10% in a year. ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-22.

Statistics

Recent Predictions