PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Recent Predictions

By 2015, China will outlaw bitcoin, or otherwise do something to to make it impossible or very difficult to use bitcoin to evade their capital controls. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by lavalamp on 2013-11-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2015-01-02.
The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
Takers of the LW survey/census will respond as left-handed more often than the base rate ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2013-11-27; known on 2014-01-12; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-01-19.
Miley Cyrus beats Edward Snowden in the TIME 2013 Person of the Year Internet poll. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by tedks on 2013-11-27; known on 2013-12-05; judged right by tedks on 2013-12-09.
I will be be waitlisted at Washington University in St. Louis Medical School within 6 weeks of my interview (11/21/13). Receiving no word by this date will be counted as an implicit waitlisting. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by mavant on 2013-11-26; known on 2014-01-02; judged right by mavant on 2014-01-02.
I will be rejected from Washington University in St. Louis Medical School within 6 weeks of my interview (11/21/13). ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by mavant on 2013-11-26; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by mavant on 2014-01-02.
I will be admitted to Washington University in St. Louis Medical School within 6 weeks of my interview (11/21/13). ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by mavant on 2013-11-26; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by mavant on 2014-01-02.
Family Guy will resurrect Brian ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Omid on 2013-11-26; known on 2023-03-01; judged right by adbge on 2013-12-17.
3 times the square root of 2 exceeds 4. ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-26; known on 2013-11-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-26.
I will watch one or more episodes of Game of Thrones Season 4 before 2015 ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-25; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-12.
Miami will beat Carolina (NFL) today. ( 55% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-24; known on 2013-11-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-24.
Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 150-349$ (mtgox prices) ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: > 2000$ (mtgox prices) ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 1000-2000$ (mtgox prices) ( 49% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 750-1000$ (mtgox prices) ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ArisKatsaris on 2014-01-01.
Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 550-749$ (mtgox prices) ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2014-01-01.
Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 350-549$ (mtgox prices) ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 50-149$ (mtgox prices) ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: < 50$ (mtgox prices) ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
Assassination Market will still be up in 1 year. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known on 2014-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-11-24.
Assassination Market will still be up in 5 years. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known on 2018-11-23; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-20.
Any of Eva Ask/Jyrki Katainen/François Hollande/Barack Obama/Ben Bernanke/Keith Alexander/James Clapper killed within 5 years. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known on 2018-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-11-24.
Zerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 5 years ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2018-11-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-11-23.
Zerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 1 year ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-23.
Zerocoin as functioning altcoin network within a year ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-23.
Our professor will reveal the homework answer before it is due. ( 0% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22.
LW Survey calibration answer. ( 20% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-11-22; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22.
I will get a 100 on algorithms homework 8. ( 75% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-12-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-05.
I will get at least a 90 on algorithms homework 8. ( 90% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-12-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-05.
Bitcoin falls to a value of less than 1$ per Bitcoin by the end of 2014. (prediction inspired by http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qvbzk/bloomberg_us_agencies_to_say_bitcoins_offer/cdh3ty2 ) ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
Bitcoin suffers a crash by the end of 2014, defined as falling to below 20% of its all-time high. (prediction inspired by http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qvbzk/bloomberg_us_agencies_to_say_bitcoins_offer/cdh3ty2 ) ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
Human population will stabilize by 2040. ( 85% confidence )

Created by rejuvyesh on 2013-11-20; known on 2040-01-01.
McDonald's McResource Line website will remove its advice to employees to sell unwanted Christmas presents within 30 days. ( 60% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-11-20; known on 2013-12-20.
I think it will snow a little bit in Glenwood over thanksgiving break ( 80% confidence )

Created by nicot on 2013-11-20; known on 2013-12-04; judged right by nicot on 2013-12-04.
I will still be using this in a year. ( 65% confidence )

Created by alecbrooks on 2013-11-18; known on 2014-11-17; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
The price of 1BTC on MtGox is greater than or equal to $600 at some point before the end of this prediction. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by tedks on 2013-11-17; known on 2013-12-17; judged right by nshepperd on 2013-11-18.
Bitcoin <$230 on Bitstamp at the start of 1 December 2013 ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-17; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-01.
Massive (20%+ of network) blockchain split (>=120 blocks) in BitCoin before 2015 ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
“Story of My Life” by One Direction will be in the top 3 tracks for the United States on Spotify on or before January 17, 2014. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17; known on 2014-01-18; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-12.
Auburn will win today's football game against Georgia. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17; known on 2013-11-18; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17.
Auburn will complete a certain 3rd down in today's football game. ( 66% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17; known on 2013-11-17; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17.
Florida State will not try a fake punt (on a specific play). ( 99% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16; known on 2013-11-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16.
Florida State will exceed 60 points in today's football game. ( 75% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16; known on 2013-11-17; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17.
I will switch to a primary music player that is not foobar2000, before 2015 ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sdr on 2013-11-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.
The price of one bitcoin on MtGox goes above $500 at some point before end of November 2013. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by tedks on 2013-11-15; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by tedks on 2013-11-17.
The US dollar will still be the world's primary reserve currency in 2025 (The primary reserve currency being the currency held in greatest amounts by countries in their foreign reserves). ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by najdorf on 2013-11-15; known in 4 days.
I will write a > 200 line non-web/WebView mobile application before 2015 ( 20% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
I will write a > 100 line Python program or modify > 100 same-program lines of Python in 2014 ( 93% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-12.
I will switch to Emacs as my primary editor for writing code, before 2015 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
I will switch to a primary non-Windows desktop or laptop before 2015 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
I will watch any of Homeland 3×08 – 3×12 before 2014 ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
By 2015, youtube.com will have an option (or default) that serves HTML5 video for >80% of the videos linked on their homepage. ( 70% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
Bitcoin >$9000 by February 2014. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-01.
I will get the three App Market classes with F ratings on Code Climate to E or above by the end of the day. ( 60% confidence )

Created by atroche on 2013-11-14; known on 2013-11-15; judged right by atroche on 2013-11-15.
The Labour party gain an absolute majority in the next British general election ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by a0c4a123f7 on 2013-11-13; known on 2015-05-09; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
This LW comment of mine will not have a ratio of upvotes to total votes between 40% and 80% in three days ( 80% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by Gurkenglas on 2013-11-13; known on 2013-11-16; judged right by Gurkenglas on 2013-11-17.
I will write 1667 words or more of fiction a day for an entire month during 2014 ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by atroche on 2013-11-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by atroche on 2015-01-01.
The title of OOTS #930 will be “The” or “The Rift”. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ygert on 2013-11-13; known on 2013-11-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-14.
Intelligent lifeforms found on other planets by the end of the 2000s. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by HolmesSherlockHolmes on 2013-11-13; known on 3000-01-01.
BMR will shut down within a month. ( 5% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-12; known on 2013-12-13; judged right by gwern on 2013-12-13.
Sheep will shut down within a month. ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-12; known on 2013-12-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-04.
Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by najdorf on 2013-11-12; known on 2051-01-01.
I will visit both Spain and France (again) before 2015. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-12.
I will visit Spain before 2015. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-20.
My default Anki deck will contain equal to or greater than 20,000 cards before 2014. ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-17.
I think the Arab Spring will end with most of the arab countries having structured democracies ( 75% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by mxh5251 on 2013-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
Mark Herring to be next attorney general of Virginia. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-12; known on 2014-01-15; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-25.
By 1 January 2050, the average house price in Australia will be at least AUD $1 million dollars. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2050-01-02.
Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
Intrade will be open for business by 31 December 2014 ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by najdorf on 2014-12-31.
After X-Men DFP, Hugh Jackman will reprise his role as Wolverine in another movie. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Omid on 2013-11-11; known on 2023-03-01.
The Bills will score a touchdown on a certain drive today. ( 33% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-10; known on 2013-11-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-10.
Maxmaps will no longer be working at Squad on November 9th 2014 00:01 UTC. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by eface88 on 2013-11-09; known on 2014-11-09; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-12.
The first typo is correct. ( 80% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-09; known on 2013-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-10.
I will get more than 85 points on algorithms HW7. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-09; known on 2013-11-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-19.
I will get exactly 85 points on HW7 for algorithms. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-09; known on 2013-11-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-19.
98b6e645ddd64fd3cefb3f34de1c4b6321c690f6adb394aad68bde3511d6a5f2367a88fe91ca2b44b396c0865a98015d58a1fa4a761a88c92fad7a12b3e599d5 ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-08; known on 2013-11-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-09.
Twitter stock price will exceed $40 a share on IPO day. ( 58% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-11-07; known on 2013-11-08; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-11-07.
Twitter stock price will exceed $35 a share on IPO day. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-11-07; known on 2013-11-08; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-11-07.
The Gladwell talk is in Alumni Arena. ( 80% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-06; known on 2013-11-06; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-06.
43a4c3b7d0a0654e1919ad6e7cbfa6f8d41bcce8f1320fbe511b6d7c38609ce5a2d39328e02e9777b339152987ea02b3f8adb57d84377fa7ccb708658b7d2edc ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-03; known on 2014-06-03; judged right by gwern on 2014-06-03.
“Cups” was named so because it uses cups as instruments. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-03; known on 2013-11-03; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-03.
Dragos Ruiu's “badBIOS” claims will be verified as true and due to a attack package akin to Flame/Stuxnet ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-01; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-11-01.
BoB: MtGox will support Litecoin on its exchange by year end 2013. ( 20% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by tedks on 2013-11-01; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by nshepperd on 2014-01-03.
[tredactedw] will win the pie-eating contest. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-01; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-01.
drewmm will complete his reading for his class at 3 PM before that class. ( 40% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-31; known on 2013-11-01; judged right by drewmm on 2013-10-31.
Gwern's real identity is Andre Lahs. ( 90% confidence; 9 comments )

Created by WhoIsGwernAnyway on 2013-10-31; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by WhoIsGwernAnyway on 2013-10-31.
Dave Strider (Alpha timeline, from Beta universe) will die a permanent death by the conclusion of Homestuck ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ChairmanMeow on 2013-10-31; known on 2015-10-31.
The Obamacare “exchanges will be working at the end of November”. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-10-30; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by najdorf on 2013-12-30.
The “unfortunate” comment was made by [redacted]. ( 70% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-30; known on 2013-10-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-30.
Sheep will not be operating in 12 months ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-30; known on 2014-10-30; judged right by gwern on 2014-10-30.
Sheep Marketplace will not be operating in 6 months ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-30; known on 2014-04-30; judged right by gwern on 2014-04-30.
BMR will not be operating in 12 months ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-30; known on 2014-10-30; judged right by gwern on 2014-10-30.
BMR will not be operating in 6 months ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-30; known on 2014-04-30; judged right by gwern on 2014-04-30.
Worm final chapters and epilogues will reveal that 'Khepri' is alive. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by nohat on 2013-10-29; known on 2013-11-20; judged right by nohat on 2013-11-19.
A country with >1,000,000 population will write the official version of their laws in a conlang (Esperanto/Lojban etc.) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ChristianKl on 2013-10-29; known on 2053-10-30.
HP MoR: any superintelligent or FOOMing AGI/AI will appear as a character/device in the story ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-05-01.
Terry McAuliffe to win the Viriginia's governor race. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-28; known on 2013-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-06.