Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Technology – The price of a bitcoin is over $10,000 at the end of 2018. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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President Trump will be impeached by 12/31/18 ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trump will be President on 12/31/18 ( 85% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Jeff Sessions will be AG on 12/31/18 ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-29; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Tillerson will be SoS on 12/31/18 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-30; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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https://predictionbook.com/predictions/186415 + Stephen Paddock targeted the country music festival because Paddock or ISIS or a co-conspirator believed the attendees were more likely to be Trump voters or supportive of bomb-ISIS policies ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-08; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Stephen Paddock was a jihadi, or affiliated with ISIS, or carried out the Las Vegas attack on behalf of ISIS ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-08; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Amazon will choose either Northern Virginia or Dallas as their HQ2 ( 50% confidence )
Created by retran on 2018-01-31; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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[The monarch of the United Kingdom on 12/31/18 is] Elizabeth II ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“"Brooke Shields will be be a recipeint of the Kennedy Center Honors for her lifetime contributions to American culture through the performing arts, within the next fifteen years."” ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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news.ycombinator.com will shut down or be offline >= 1 week before 2019 ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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“Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth.” ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-01.
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Mars Insight successfully lands on mars ( 31% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-04; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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I will move before 2019 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-08; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2019 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Dissident Irish republican groups launch an attack killing more than 5 people by the end of 2018 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-11; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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Moore's law stops ; transistor count on intel CPUs/GPUs hasn't doubled in 18 months ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-03; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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Vector will complete multiple successful orbital launches in 2018. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-15; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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Conor McGregor will return to the UFC by the end of 2018 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Finma on 2018-03-03; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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[The monarch of the United Kingdom on 12/31/18 is] Charles ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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World War 3 to begin in 2018. (Formal war involving at least three large, developed nations, with some on separate sides). ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-16; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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No Google Lunar X Prize finalists to soft-land on the Moon in 2018. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-01-26; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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AMD crosses 25% cpu market share by end of 2018. (according to Passmark Cpu Benchmarks) ( 35% confidence )
Created by ekr on 2017-11-22; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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One more Falcon Heavy launch in 2018. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-07; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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Two more Falcon Heavy launches in 2018. ( 62% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-07; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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Launcher One to launch commercial payloads in 2018. ( 22% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-14; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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Whistleblower reveals, in a way that is undeniable and accepted by majority of these citizens, that federal elections in all of US/CAN/EU (parliament, not necessarily member states)/UK/switzerland is rigged ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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At least 1 SpaceX Falcon 9 mission in 2018 is a failure with payload damage or loss. ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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“Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth.” ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-01.
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Conditional on using computers by the end of the 2018, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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I will visit Japan before 2019 ( 38% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-07; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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I will switch back to Windows for my general desktop/laptop computing before 2019-01-01 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2019 ( 14% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Before 2019, Apple will announce a product that lets you dock/connect an iPhone to a desktop/laptop monitor + keyboard and use it like a desktop or laptop computer ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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I will buy a hidpi laptop for my personal use before 2019 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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I will watch the 2013 movie 'Ender's Game' and like it, before 2019 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Chandrayaan-2 (चन्द्रयान-२) 2nd lunar exploration mission. Launched by GSLV includes a lunar orbiter, rover and a lander landing on the moon and exploring. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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President Trump impeached for conspiring with enemies (russia or otherwise) ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Fessenheim Nuclear Power Plant closes ( 73% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-05; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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NASA InSight is launched successfully ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-04; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Britain will leave the EU as a “soft Brexit”, keeping the four freedoms. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-06-20; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Spot silver will reach $20 by December 31, 2018. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2018-03-26; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Nuclear exchanging involving all 3 of US, Russia, China either beinig nuked, or nuking some other country within a week ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The Matrix “The Next Generation” / prequels released by Warner Bros ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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redefinition of Kg before planck's constant is fixed ( 53% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-05; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The new Amazon HQ will be hosted in the Austin-Round Rock, TX metro area ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-10-22; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Flamanville 3 reactor startup ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-05; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The new Amazon HQ will be hosted by a city with a population of < 3,000,000 people in its metropolitan area ( 25% confidence; 8 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-10-22; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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China probe lands on far side of the moon, returns samples ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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US National Debt will cross $22 trillion by December 31, 2018. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2018-03-26; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-01.