Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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jessicata doesn't think GiveWell is a scam ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-12-20; known on 2018-12-20; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-12-20.
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Bharat will lead the world in 4G. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-01; known on 2018-12-11; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 5 seconds ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 5 seconds ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 5 seconds ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 3 minutes ( 87% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 1 minute and 26 seconds (the time it ran out in 2017) ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 40 seconds ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 20 seconds ( 43% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 10 seconds ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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It's a test prediction ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Joy on 2018-06-30; known on 2018-07-14; judged right by pranomostro on 2018-12-19.
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Created by dmwit on 2018-12-12; known on 2018-12-20; judged wrong by dmwit on 2018-12-19.
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<5 personnes restant au moins 5 min entre 17h30 et 18h50 ( 73% confidence )
Created by leo_grint on 2018-12-18; known on 2018-12-19; judged right by leo_grint on 2018-12-18.
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Contingent on losing her appeal, Amanda Knox will be extradited to Italy to serve her sentence. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-31; known on 2018-01-31; judged wrong by lettergram on 2020-11-05.
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Contingent on losing her appeal, Amanda Knox will be extradited to Italy to serve her sentence. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-31; known on 2018-01-31; judged wrong by lettergram on 2020-11-05.
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Contingent on losing her appeal, Amanda Knox will be extradited to Italy to serve her sentence. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-31; known on 2018-01-31; judged wrong by lettergram on 2020-11-05.
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Helmut Schmidt to become a centenarian ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2018-12-16; judged wrong by lettergram on 2018-12-18.
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AMD's stock hits $20 by May 16, 2019 ( 60% confidence )
Created by lettergram on 2018-05-16; known on 2019-05-16; judged right by lettergram on 2018-12-18.
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Less than 10 deaths in the gilet jaunes manifestation today ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_grint on 2018-12-08; known on 2018-12-09; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-15.
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Still in a relationship with E by end of 2018 ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-12-12.
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There will be no Smash Tour minigame in Smash for Switch. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by gallerdude on 2018-12-10.
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Personal, Productivity – I do at least an hour of work on my predictor before the end of 2018-12-02 UTC. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-02; known on 2018-12-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-12-09.
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Personal – I am either continuing with or have completed my Neuroscience course on Coursera as of 2018-12-01. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-12-09.
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Personal – I still have a weekly cycle out as a goal for the week starting 2018-12-03. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-12; known on 2018-12-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-12-09.
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Personal – I have completed at least one Anki card on five of the seven days prior to 2018-12-01 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-08; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-12-09.
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Personal – I have some kind of cloud service invoking ML Engine to generate a list of its own probability assignments by end of November 2018. ( 87% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-17; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-12-09.
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Personal – I have mended at least one item of clothing via sewing before 2018-12-01. ( 25% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-17; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-12-09.
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Personal – I have either run a board gaming meetup in the two weeks before or have one scheduled for the two weeks after the 1st of December. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-08; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-12-09.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Armin Laschet ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known on 2018-12-08; judged wrong by amadeu on 2018-12-08.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Friedrich Merz ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known on 2018-12-08; judged wrong by amadeu on 2018-12-08.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Other ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known on 2018-12-08; judged wrong by amadeu on 2018-12-08.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Jens Spahn ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known on 2018-12-08; judged wrong by amadeu on 2018-12-08.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known on 2018-12-08; judged right by amadeu on 2018-12-08.
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Jets will win the super bowl ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by rimbalzanoo on 2018-11-08; known on 2019-02-14; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-08.
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Bharat's fiscal deficit will come to down to 3% of GDP in 3 years: 3.9% GDP in 2015-16, 3.5% in 2016-17 3% 2017-18. ( 95% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-06; known on 2018-12-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-07.
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Politics – Ashiq Masih is granted asylum in the UK, Canada, or US before the start of December. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-05; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-07.
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World Bank predicts Bharat will have sub 8% growth for 3 years. 7.5% 2015-16,7.8% 2016-17, and 7.9% 2017-18. ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-06; known on 2018-12-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-07.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 5 seconds ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2018-12-20.
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Politics, US – Beto O'Rourke is listed by opensecrets.org as having raised the most money this election cycle out of Senate candidates on the 1st of December 2018. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-05; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Jennifer on 2018-12-03.
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Politics, US – David Trone is listed by opensecrets.org as having raised the most money this election cycle on the 1st of December 2018. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-05; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Jennifer on 2018-12-03.
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ronit and somni will coordinate next week ( 20% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2018-11-24; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Somni on 2018-12-01.
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My partner will get ready in the next hour to collaborate with my friend ( 70% confidence )
Created by absurdseagull on 2018-12-01; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by absurdseagull on 2018-12-01.
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Magnus Carlsen remains World Chess Champion in 2018 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-11-10; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by amadeu on 2018-11-28.
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Personal, Productivity – I spent at least three hours working on ML projects before the end of 2018-11-24 UTC. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-24; known on 2018-11-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-11-28.
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There won't be any team from Russia in Champions League play-offs in 2018 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stommelen on 2018-10-03; known on 2018-12-13; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-28.
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Bright Funds will no longer exist as a coherent entity when I look it up. ( 70% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2018-11-28; known on 2018-11-28; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2018-11-28.
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US will have universal health care system by 2022 ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by amadeu on 2018-11-12; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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ACE will announce Animal Equality as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by marianne on 2018-10-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by marianne on 2018-11-26.
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ACE will announce THL as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by marianne on 2018-10-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by marianne on 2018-11-26.
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ACE will announce GFI as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by marianne on 2018-10-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by marianne on 2018-11-26.