Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2018 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I'll complete Timeless Consent before the end of the year. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Somni on 2018-01-01.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 3,500 and 5,000 (1.4x–2x growth) ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will not face federal charges by the end of 2017. ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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Paul Ryan will be Speaker of the House on 12/31/17. ( 99% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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President Trump will be impeached by 12/31/17. ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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Nancy Pelosi will be Democratic Leader on 12/31/17. ( 97% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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SpaceX carries out a successful Falcon Heavy launch, defined as placing payload in or above LEO, within 2017. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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at least one of the following survives 2017: SEPA, Visa, Mastercard, US federal reserve, ECB, Deutsche Bank ( 99% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Israel annexes new land in 2017 ( 16% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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There will not be another general election in the UK in 2017 ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Israeli–Palestinian conflict comes to an end in 2017 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Trump is the acting president of USA on January 1, 2018 ( 91% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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At least one country leaves the Eurozone before 2018 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Donald Trump renegotiates US foreign debt ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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human beings engaged against first bipedal robots in real battle ( 13% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Within five years (2017), motion-controlled augmented reality headsets will be widespread in the consumer market, selling millions of units and beginning to overtake multitouch screens as the primary mode of mobile computer interaction. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Legislation introduced in the US to regulate Augmented Reality. ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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dawla al islamyya 'completely defeated' in iraq ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-10; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Antifa ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-17; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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There will be federal laws or regulations on high speed trading in the U.S. by end of 2017 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-14; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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No human head transplant results in a conscious subject. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Brent crude will finish above $60 per barrel. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Assad will remain President of Syria. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Trump will not be impeached. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Trump will end the year above 35% approval. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Trump’s approval will be below 55% throughout the year. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Ethiopia will see GDP growth of >= 7%. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Joseph Kabila will not be in power. ( 55% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Pro-Russian forces will continue to hold Donetsk and Luhansk. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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China will not enter recession this year. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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We make it to Alexs moms in our electric car ( 75% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-01-01.
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Marijuana decriminalized in canada in 2017 ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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No terrorist attack outside of Iraq and Syria causes >300 deaths in 2017. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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If a large random portion of the Afghanistan population is forced to change gender presentation (the “sneetch” solution) by 2015, by 2018 the country will have passed anti-gender-discrimination laws for employment, housing, and education. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by puritan on 2012-09-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Sarah Palin named ambassador to Canada ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-09; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Btc below 9k usd before 2018 ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-12-03; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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No country will (initiate proceedings to) leave the Eurozone. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] Despacito ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-01.
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Btc below 7k USD before 2018 ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-12-03; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by objclone on 2018-01-01.
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Szechuan sauce theory: Rick & Morty S3 to feature at least 3 distinct (non-S1&S2) merch (paid by other corps) across the season ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sdr on 2017-04-07; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by sdr on 2018-01-01.
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2017 predictions: I will post 0 drawings ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2018-01-01.
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There will be another incident of at least one person getting struck and killed by a meteorite before 2018 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I will finish Stephen's Sausage Roll before 2018 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-04-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I will switch back to Windows for my general desktop/laptop computing before 2018-01-01 ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I will buy an iPhone for my own use before 2018 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2018 ( 4% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I will visit Japan before 2018 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I will do most of my programming in Elixir in 2017 ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I will meet anyone in-person via okcupid, before 2018 ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.