PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Given an Obamacare repeal, a full replacement will be passed before the end of 2017 ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

Oil will end 2017 higher than $50 a barrel (Brent Crude) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

I will drop out of my PhD in 2017 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump at the end of 2017 ( 82% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

No major revolt (greater than or equal to Tiananmen Square) against Chinese Communist Party during 2017 ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

Oakland's total homicide count is greater than 88 in 2017. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by adbge on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

Myself and a certain close friend will visit Japan during 2017 ( 9% confidence )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

I purchase a computer in 2017 ( 15% confidence )

Created by ioannes on 2017-02-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-01.

The United States will be at war by the end of the year ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-03-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-01-01.

Syria – A chemical weapon attack involving a nerve agent occurs between 8th April 2017 and the end of 2017, committed by any party. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

No criminal investigation of Hillary Clinton in 2017. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-01.

The San Francisco Bay Area will experience an earthquake in 2017 equal to or greater than that of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake ( magnitude 6.9 and a maximum Mercalli intensity of IX (Violent)) ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by custom on 2017-03-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-01-01.

Assad will remain President of Syria throughout 2017 ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

No Cast Lead style bombing/invasion of Gaza in 2017 ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

Dow Jones will not fall > 10% in 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

No announcement of genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for such during 2017 ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

A certain close friend of playablecharacter will commit suicide this year ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

I will get above average on the PSAT. ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

I envision some vision ( 30% confidence )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

I will consider myself to be “a person who drinks alcohol” at any point in 2017 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

US does not publicly and explicitly disavow One China policy in 2017 ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

User “QUEER HOMOSEXUAL LESBIAN” visits Bay Area this year ( 35% confidence )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

I will get over 1 million WP pageviews for WP articles created in 2017, for 2017 ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

I will read 40+ books in 2017 ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2018-01-01.

I will read 30+ books in 2017 ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2018-01-01.

I will read 20+ books in 2017 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2018-01-01.

Firefox browser share will be below 5.1% for December 2017 as reported by W3Counter ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2017-08-07; known on 2018-01-15; judged wrong by Afforess on 2018-01-01.

Greece will default on it's sovereign debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both) by the end of 2017 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Afforess on 2016-04-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2018-01-01.

I will contract Zika virus any time before 2018 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2016-09-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2018-01-01.

My FOIA request for the Szlackin report will result in me getting at least a redacted copy of the report before the end of 2017 ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2017-08-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2018-01-01.

Theresa May to be next tory leader ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.

Germany does not declare plan to leave EU in 2017 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.

France does not declare plan to leave EU in 2017 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.

No country currently in Euro or EU announces new plan (excluding England) to leave during 2017 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.

Edward Snowden still stuck in Russia, or dead ( 62% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.

ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.

Syria’s civil war will not end during 2017 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.

No major intifada in Israel in 2017 (ie > 250 Israeli deaths, but not in Cast Lead style war) ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.

'weapons of financial mass destruction' trigger collapse in 2017, causing widespread market panic/crisis ( 36% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.

SpaceX carries out a successful Falcon Heavy booster landing, of at least one booster in 2017. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.

Kellyanne Conway stops having a formal role in the Trump administration by end of 2017. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by ioannes on 2017-02-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.

North Korea is invaded by the end of 2017 ( 7% confidence; 24 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-07-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-06-07.

Warren Buffet will claim that the “weapons of financial mass destruction” have executed in 2017: financial derivatives cause major problem worldwide. ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.

Predictionbook user reads a news article on Reuters, AFP, AP, BBC, Der Spiegel, Euronews or CNN that implicates possible Russian influence behind Berlin 2016 truck attack. Even a speculation article counts. If found, please provide a link. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by kuudes on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.

2017 LessWrong codebase migration will happen and existing LessWrong accounts will stop working (forcing users to sign up for fresh accounts) ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.

2017 LessWrong codebase migration will happen and will cause massive linkrot that will last for at least one month ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.

LessWrong will use Telescope Nova rather than its old reddit codebase by 2018-01-01 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.

LessWrong will accept posts written in Markdown (any flavor) on its web interface by 2018-01-01 ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.

“Link posts” will still exist as a feature for new posts on LessWrong on 2018-01-01 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.

Statistics

Judged Predictions