PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Facebook market cap will not drop below $200 billion at any time in 2017. ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.

Quantcast will continue to show visits and pageviews data for Stack Overflow till the end of 2017. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.

Wikipedia Views (wikipediaviews.org) will survive in a form very similar to its present form as of January 1, 2018. ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.

I will post more on Facebook in 2017 than I did in 2016 (as judged by myself). ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-11; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.

[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] A video released before June 1, 2017, that is not in the above list ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.

[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] A video released on or after June 1, 2017 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.

[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] Shape Of You ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.

[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] See You Again ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.

I will finish 6 or more books this year ( 70% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-03; judged right by Jach on 2018-01-02.

Godot 3.0 will have a stable release by the end of the year ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jach on 2017-11-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Jach on 2018-01-02.

>2,000 American troops deployed in Syria in 2017 ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by ioannes on 2017-02-09; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-02.

McDonalds Germany will have served vegan burgers in their restaurants by the end of 2017. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by maxra on 2017-05-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by maxra on 2018-01-02.

This BOE reference interest rate will be 0.5% or below at the end of 2017 ( 40% confidence )

Created by penten on 2016-10-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by penten on 2018-01-02.

Read 45 or more books in 2017 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by penten on 2016-12-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by penten on 2018-01-02.

I will have given up coffee by 1st Jan 2018 ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2018-01-02.

Instapaper has shut down by end 2017 ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by penten on 2016-11-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2018-01-02.

I will have given up alcohol by 1st Jan 2018 ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2018-01-02.

I will read 2+ French books in 2017 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by penten on 2016-12-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by penten on 2018-01-02.

I will read 3+ Chinese books in 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by penten on 2016-12-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2018-01-02.

FTSE100 over 7,000 on January 1st 2018 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by penten on 2017-01-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by penten on 2018-01-02.

US does not withdraw from large trade org like WTO or NAFTA in 2017 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by imaxwell on 2018-01-02.

I am banned from Predictionbook ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-23; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-02.

Construction of Musk Hyperloop will be ready for passengers by 2018 ( 3% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.

'India completes construction of the Dibang Valley Dam' in 2017. ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.

A referendum on Quebec sovereignty to be held before 2018. ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by simplicio on 2013-02-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.

>= 267 pages of predictions on the “View Predictions” page (13350ish public predictions, currently 238 pages) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by penten on 2017-01-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.

EA, Animal Welfare – Animal Charity Evaluators recommends Direct Action Everywhere by the end of 2017. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.

Construction on Mexican border wall (beyond existing barriers) begins in 2017 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.

Theresa May remains PM of Britain through 2017 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.

On Jan 1, 2018 my bmi will be between 19 and 21.5. (Withdrawn if I’m >3 months pregnant in 2017.) ( 90% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2018-01-02.

Oroville Dam breaks or overflows in 2017. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ioannes on 2017-02-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-01-02.

Crossrail opens in London ( 10% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2018-01-01 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

>= 270 pages of predictions on the “View Predictions” page (13500ish public predictions, currently 238 pages) ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by penten on 2017-01-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

UM to win Outback Bowl ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.

Twitter shut down. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.

Z-Cash Market Cap will be above $18m (Value on 1/3/17) at the end of 2017 ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.

Z-Cash will be above $50 (Price on 1/3/17) at the end of 2017 ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.

Ethereum will be above $10 at the end of 2017 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.

Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2017 ( 13% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2018-01-01.

A LessWrong post published during 2017 will become a top-10 post by pageviews on LW by 2018-01-01 ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

Vipul Naik will pay more (“payments due”) for contract work in 2017 than he did in 2016 https://contractwork.vipulnaik.com/ ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

I will be living in Boston area as of March 2018 ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

I will identify as a non-atheist to someone within my lifetime, starting now ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 3001-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

I convince Issa that the East™ is worth living in,,..,,.,,..,,. ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

I'll have gotten intimate with an MIT girl/boy (must include physical) ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

As of the end of 2017, J and K will have decided to move to India indefinitely ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2017-10-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-01-01.

The University of Washington will move up from its current ranking of 15 in ARWU before 2021 ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

Issa Rice source code (in its entirety) will be put into new hardware this year ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

I will experience a blackout while/after drinking alcohol during 2017 ( 86% confidence )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

Statistics

Judged Predictions