Law Students commonly use IBM's Watson ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Peteris on 2018-01-01.

D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=2048-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2018 ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-01.

MSJapan will make an edit on the English Wikipedia in 2017 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Contributions/MSJapan ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-01.

“Timeline of digital preservation” on the English Wikipedia will be over 100,000 bytes by the end of 2017 https://goo.gl/RMJbcs ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-01.

'China launches an unmanned sample return mission to the Moon' ( 52% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.

'Electric and hybrid trucks are now surpassing 100,000 in annual production numbers worldwide' in 2017 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.

'After a six year construction period, the Kingdom Tower opens in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.' in 2017 ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.

TPO Mobile (The People's Operator) shutters operations before the end of 2017 ( 61% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by thekohser on 2017-04-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by thekohser on 2018-01-01.

'the countries of Iceland, Macedonia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia have all joined the ranks of the EU member nations' by 2018 ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.

India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2018. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.

Falcon Heavy test flight by end of 2017 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.

Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Neo-Nazis killing people at political protests or rallies. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-08-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.

North Korea will test (or attempt to test) a nuclear bomb (any yield, any method of delivery) between 24th Sept 2017 and before the end of 2017 ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-24; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-01.

The New York Times stops delivering paper newspapers in 2017 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ioannes on 2017-03-27; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

Kim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

A peace treaty ends the arab-israeli conflict before 2018 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

human head transplant will be successful in 2017/2018? ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Avadak on 2015-05-02; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

Jeff Sessions (Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III) will not be the Attorney General before the end of 2017 ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-25; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

Kurdistan will be a UN member by 2018. ( 30% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

Trump will not be president at the beginning of 2018. ( 12% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

SpaceX will launch a Falcon Heavy before the end of 2017. Any launch leaving the ground satisfies this, even if it fails during ascent, or carries only a test payload. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

a commercial aircraft will crash in the US before 2018, resulting in casualties. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

Greece will cease to be on the Euro by 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-02-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

Episode 4 will end in a “don't trust technology, follow the heart” type ending ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

Violent act resulting in at least 2 deaths in Times Square between now and 2 AM 1/1/19 Eastern Time ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.

Rachel Maddow commits suicide in 2017 ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates above 1% before the end of 2017 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by waveman on 2015-09-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2018-01-01.

I will still be below 68kg at the end of 2017 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2018-01-01.

10% chance of AI by 2018 —Shane Legg ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2018-01-01.

By 2018, an editorial in either the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal will call for an investigation into whether the 9/11 Truth movement's accusations are correct. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2018-01-01.

China will fall into disorder and civil war by the end of 2017 ( 6% confidence; 21 wagers; 15 comments )

Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

A meme will exist and be relatively frequent, saying 2017 was even worse than 2016. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

Civil War in Venezuela ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

“By 2018 the € will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany.” ( 17% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

War in Venezuela and/or Venezuela invaded by one of its neighbours ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

North Korea gets nuked by January 1, 2018 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-08-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

e-paper in wide use by 2018 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.