PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Judged Predictions

US will not withdraw from TTIP ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-01-23; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
No terrorist attack causes >100 deaths in the developed world in 2017 (HDI > 0.8). ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
Terrorism death toll by year end 2017 will be < 30,000 ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
et po >= 15 ka before next year ( 12% confidence )

Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2018-01-03.
snowman will still be identifiable next year ( 38% confidence )

Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2018-01-03.
Putin’s domestic approval will remain above 50% in whatever reputable polls exist there. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
Syrian ceasefire (Russian brokered, Dec 16) will not last. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
May's approval rating above 30% at year end. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
The Iran nuclear deal will hold (i.e. no Iranian uranium enrichment) ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
US will not get involved in any new war with death toll of >100 US soldiers ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
Total media mentions of ISIL continues to decline. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
Deportations from the US will not increase by more than a quarter. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
F-35 program will not be curtailed. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
2016 will remain the hottest year on record. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
Business, UK – Donald Brydon ceases to be chairman of LSE. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-11; known on 2017-12-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
Syria – Credible forensic evidence that a chemical weapons storage or manufacturing location existed in Khan Sheikhoun emerges before the end of 2017. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
EMDrive thrust will not be positively replicated by a reliable independent party, like Tau Zero. (Not Shawyer, White, Fetti.) ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
Personal – I move to remote working from Manchester by the end of 2017. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
There will be a larger DDoS attack than the October Dyn attack. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
No verified quantum supremacy this year. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
“Data science” hype will continue to increase, as measured by Google Trends hits / world job openings. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
A CRISPR clinical trial will be conducted on humans in the US. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
Lightning Networks AND Segwit will be fully deployed before the end of 2017 ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
I will read at least 30 substantive books during 2017 (not reread, excluding light fiction) ( 50% confidence )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
I will read at least 20 substantive books during 2017 (not reread, excluding light fiction) ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
There will be a major bug found and exploited in Lightning Networks / Segwit during 2017 (Conditional on deployment before June) ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
EMDrive is launched into space and testing is successfully begun in 2017 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
A significant number of skeptics will not become convinced EMDrive works in 2017 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
A significant number of believers will not become convinced EMDrive doesn’t work during 2017 if it is not launched by November. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
No agreement reached on “two-speed EU” in 2017 ( 90% confidence )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
Oil will end 2017 lower than $60 a barrel (Brent Crude) ( 50% confidence )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
Shanghai index will not fall > 10% in 2017 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
Trump administration does not initiate extra prosecution of Hillary Clinton (in 2017) ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
No race riot in the US killing > 5 people in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
Repeal of Obamacare, including at least the individual mandate OR minimum coverage rules signed in to law before end of 2017 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
Jonathan will meditate for X minutes every day until Monday, January 1st. ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Lemmih on 2017-12-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Lemmih on 2018-01-02.
Al Franken will not be a US Senator on 3/31/18. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-04-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02.
Hillary Clinton to be convicted for an offense directly related to her email controversy. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Dapple on 2016-10-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-02.
Kyle Chapman (based stick man) will face prosecution for assault charges in 2017 ( 20% confidence )

Created by Dapple on 2017-03-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-02.
Kyle Chapman (based stick man) will be convicted on assault charges in 2017 ( 11% confidence )

Created by Dapple on 2017-03-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-02.
There will be a week during which it is more common to buy food with gold than any other form of money (e.g., USD) in some US settlement with at least 1000 people in 2017. ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by aseyfarth on 2017-01-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by aseyfarth on 2018-01-02.
I will have a major haircut in 2017 ( 10% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
I will be hospitalised in 2017 (not counting A&E) ( 5% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
I will be asking people to use gender-neutral pronouns for me by the end of 2017 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
I will go on dates with >5 people in 2017 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
I will complete my current music project in 2017 ( 46% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
I will read every new xkcd in 2017 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
I will read every new SSC in 2017 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
I will consider myself vegan at any point in 2017 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
The 750 GeV diphoton excess reported by the LHC in December 2015 will be definitively attributed to new fundamental physics by the end of 2017 by either the CMS or ATLAS collaborations according to the 5-sigma “observation” criteria. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jessriedel on 2016-01-06; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by jessriedel on 2018-01-02.