Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Issa Rice will write down a new prediction each day on PredictionBook for the next month ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-03; known on 2017-02-03; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-02-03.
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Obama leaves the White House with an approval rating of 55 or higher. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-02.
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Arnaud Montebourg wins french left wing primary. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_grint on 2016-11-22; known on 2017-01-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-02.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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class on time ( 60% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-02-02; known on 2017-02-02; judged right by elephantower on 2017-02-02.
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6+ pomos this day ( 60% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2017-02-01; known on 2017-02-02; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2017-02-02.
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Sometime in the next 5 years, a television network will make a build show that involves hackerspaces. ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-09; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-02.
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Jane Kelly is nominated to replace Scalia. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-02-14; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-02.
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The Dow goes above 20k again on Feb 1 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by rmeador on 2017-02-01; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by rmeador on 2017-02-01.
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President Trump appoints Ron Paul as Secretary of State ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-08; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-02-01.
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Trump will nominate Steve Bannon to the Supreme Court. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnWittle on 2017-02-01; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-02-01.
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Hiveswap will be released by the end of January 2017 ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by TheCometKing on 2016-10-02; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by TheCometKing on 2017-02-01.
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FBI/CIA orchestrated “massive false flag tragedy” happens 6+/-1 days after new US president is elected ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-08; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Colors tag will be lower for January 2017 than for January 2016. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-02; known on 2017-02-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for January 2017 than for January 2016. ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-02; known on 2017-02-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-01.
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After the next Australian federal election, a member of the Labor party will be sworn in as Prime Minister. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-11; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2017-02-01.
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Samsung 850 EVO will not be returned before 2017-02-01 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-31.
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I will see fm this winter ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-16; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-31.
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Cisco switch will not be returned before 2017-02-01 ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-31.
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Terrorist Attack in US with >12 deaths or new US version of Falklands War (ie not war with Russia, China, EU but 'smaller country') ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19; known on 2017-01-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-31.
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TPP will not be ratified this year. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-01-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-31.
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lvl 3 in January 2017 ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-03; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-31.
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Books 2016 Q4 published by February 1 2017 ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-02-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-31.
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Trump tweeting frequency drops to < 1/week in the month after his inauguration (month of January 21st to February 21st) ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-31.
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US will not withdraw from TTIP ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-01-23; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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I go to Hearst Castle this weekend ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-01-30; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-30.
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Congress passes a substantial repeal of Obamacare in the next 5 years ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-01; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-03-17.
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There will be a commercial house cleaning robots (like a Roomba) that can go to specific parts of the house and clean those parts. ( 17% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-30.
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A nuclear device (bomb, granade etc) with a strength of more than 1 kiloton will explode anywhere in the middle east within the next 5 years. ( 13% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-29; known on 2017-01-29; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-30.
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TPP ratified in Canada ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-17.
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The total of grant amounts for grants announced by the Open Philanthropy Project by March 1, 2017, with the grant date listed as being in 2016, excluding GiveWell-recommended grants, will be over $50 million. ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-03-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-29.
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Politics – President Trump signs an executive order reversing at least one of Obama's LGBT protection executive orders by the end of 2017-01-27. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-21; known on 2017-01-28; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-29.
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Next President of the US will have to deal with(militarily or otherwise) Dalwa al Islamyya. It will still exist and be problematic by the time the next president assumes office. ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2017-02-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-28.
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0 US combat deaths, either US or enemy, after Donald Trump gets elected. US at peace with the world ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-28.
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Fiction, Webseries, Twig – Berger tries to sacrifice the hostage in 16.10 or 16.11 ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-21; known on 2017-01-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-01-28.
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Fiction, Webcomics, Erfworld – Marie goes to TV within pages 227-230. ( 35% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-13; known on 2017-01-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-01-28.
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Jaeggi 2008 (DNB transfer to Gf) will be formally retracted within 5 years ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-27; known on 2017-01-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-27.
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My boat gets in a difficult situation next Thursday (“difficult situation” = run aground, crash, man overboard, medical emergency onboard, etc.) ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2017-01-27; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-27.
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Google's new robotics acquisitions won't produce any consumer products, but will produce platforms ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2014-01-26; known on 2017-01-26; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-26.
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door shutting ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2017-01-26; known on 2017-01-26; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-01-26.
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The UK Supreme Court will dismiss the Brexit appeal ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2016-12-27; known on 2017-01-31; judged right by sjy on 2017-01-25.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average will exceed 20,000 for the first time in history during January 2017 ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2017-01-09; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by sjy on 2017-01-25.
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Politics – President Trump signs an executive order ordering research into, preparatory work for, or work on border fencing or walls before the end of 2017-01-27 ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-21; known on 2017-01-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-01-25.
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ASOIAF : Zrrerra snyyf gb fyniref, Zvffnaqrv rafynirq ( 42% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25.
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Obama Pardons Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump presidency ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-24.
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Congress passes a substantial repeal of Obamacare in the next 5 years ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-01; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-03-17.
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Stephen Harper will be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2015. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by pent on 2017-01-23.
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[Federal] Minimum wage is raised >$2 under the Obama administration ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-01; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-23.
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US will not withdraw from TTIP ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-01-23; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.