Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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78da4c28c143411c49c808a02702de83 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-12; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-23.
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Motorcycle crash on trip to San Diego ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2017-01-23; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-22.
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Motorcycle crash or breakdown on trip to San Diego ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2017-01-23; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-22.
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Arrive in Santa Barbara before sunset tomorrow ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2017-01-22; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-22.
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Technology – OnePlus releases a further bug fix update for the OnePlus 3 before the end of January. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-13; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-01-21.
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Fiction, Webcomics, Guilded Age – Best says some variation on “thank you”, within pages 10-12 ( 70% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-13; known on 2017-01-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-01-21.
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I will be on University of Washington Seattle campus on January 20, 2017 ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-07; known on 2017-01-21; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2017-01-21.
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Stephen Harper will be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2015. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by pent on 2017-01-23.
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Stephen Harper will be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2015. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by pent on 2017-01-23.
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Stephen Harper will be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2015. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by pent on 2017-01-23.
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Trump tweets at least one tweet about how great the performances at his inauguration ceremony will be / are / were. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-15; known on 2017-02-10; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-20.
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Barack Obama recognizes Palestine ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-11-12; known on 2017-02-12; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-20.
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I will not be able to find a place, and will be forced to move back to saskatoon ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-11; known on 2017-03-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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TPP Passes in US (specifically through lame duck president Obama) ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-12; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Donal Trump will be inaugurated President ( 97% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asyks on 2016-12-27; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire ( 3% confidence; 32 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2013-01-13; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Donald Trump will be sworn in as President before February 2017 ( 89% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by mortehu on 2017-01-20.
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“While president, Obama will announce support for means testing Social Security” —James Miller ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-20.
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Paul Ryan will be the next Speaker of the House ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-01-20.
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Another supreme court justice will die during Obama's presidency. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-17; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by Faceh on 2017-01-20.
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Obama signs executive order legalizing marijuana on the last day of his presidency. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RESO on 2015-02-05; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by RESO on 2017-01-20.
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2016 will be the hottest year ever recorded for the entire world (by the time historical records ever began) ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-19.
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I go on an OKC date next week ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-07; known on 2017-01-18; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-19.
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2016 will be the hottest year ever recorded (since historical records began) ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-18.
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2016 to be the warmest year ever ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-01-18.
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US recession in 2016. ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-17; known on 2017-01-18; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-18.
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New Alternative Foundation Successfully Set up by TheDAO Drainer ( 19% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-18; known on 2017-01-18; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-17.
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NYC will have at least 1 100-degree day in 2016 ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-17.
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new landlord accepts tenancy agreement ( 89% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-15; known on 2017-01-18; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-17.
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House of Representatives selects next POTUS. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-24; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-16.
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At least one major crime will be live streamed through Periscope or Meerkat (or whatever the app of the day is) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by cocoflunchy on 2015-03-29; known on 2017-03-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-16.
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Square will go public in 5 years ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daffodilian on 2013-03-06; known on 2018-03-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16.
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2016 Q4 books post published by end of this weekend ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-16.
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There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2017 ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
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Nothing will pass the Turing Test before 2017 ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-04; known on 2017-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
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Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in the UK this year. ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
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Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in the US this year. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
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Saskatoon, Regina, Calgary or Edmonton hit by F5 tornado ( 12% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-04; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16.
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Saskatoon, Regina, Calgary or Edmonton hit by tornado ( 31% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-04; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16.
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Falcon Heavy test flight by January 15, 2017 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-16.
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Ethan will leave Def hacks() before it is over ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by npcuck on 2017-01-14; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-01-15.
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I go to Bolinas this weekend ( 60% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-01-16; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-15.
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Melania or Donald Trump to file for divorce or separation, or to be publicly separated by January 15th , 2017 ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-10-09; known on 2017-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-15.
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Fiction, Webseries, Twig – In 16.7, the leader orders an attack on Sy. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-13; known on 2017-01-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-01-14.
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SpaceX makes a successful launch before the end of January 2017 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-01-14.
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I will finish with the article before got to sleep ( 70% confidence )
Created by whaf on 2017-01-07; known on 2017-01-07; judged wrong by whaf on 2017-01-14.
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I will reach my weight goal of 64.1kg (10 day average) in 2017 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-01-13.
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Open source MineCraft client by 2017 ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2017-01-13.
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application for renting the place on peter st turned down ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-01-14; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12.
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Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 26% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jonii on 2009-10-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12.