Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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SaskTel lays off at least 100 full time employees. ( 32% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12.
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GiveWell and the Open Philanthropy Project will legally separate into two organizations by the end of 2016 ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-23; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-11.
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Fiction, Webcomics, Erfworld – Wanda gets the Arkenpliers back, in pages 219, 220, 221, or 222. ( 30% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-01-10.
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Business, UK – A deal preventing further strike action is announced by South West Trains by the end of Friday 16th December 2016. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-17; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-01-10.
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Politics, US – Jim O'Neill announced as nominee for head of the FDA by Trump or a representative, by end of December 2016. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-12-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-01-10.
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There will be another incident of at least one person getting struck and killed by a meteorite before 2017 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10.
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Tomorrow I will finish exporting the Quora questions I follow ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-07; known on 2017-01-08; judged right by Issa Rice on 2017-01-08.
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Square Inc. will be bought or merged within 5 years. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2017-01-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-08.
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The world average of the 2016 democracy index will be higher than in 2015 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-12; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-01-08.
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Ke Jie loses to AlphaGo ( 87% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-08.
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Saskatoon, Regina, Calgary or Edmonton 100% mandatory evacuations due to fire ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-04; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-08.
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Aaron will choose Angelina's for lunch today. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rob Bednark on 2017-01-06; known on 2017-01-06; judged wrong by Rob Bednark on 2017-01-07.
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I will complete part 3 of week 5's assignment tonight, by midnight. ( 90% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2017-01-06; known on 2017-01-07; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2017-01-06.
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Bharat real gdp growth rate at 7.8 % in 2016 ( 93% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-07; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-06.
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Quora to become top-100 site (measured by Alexa) by the end of 2016 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-06.
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Australia Federally recognises same-sex marriage on or before 1 January 2017. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-06.
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'I think it is probable that we could get a connectome of the human brain within 4 to 7 years.' —Mike ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2017-01-06; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-06.
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Gender divide in 2016 election to be greater than that in 2012 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-03-01; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-01-05.
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Gilead's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017 ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2017-01-05.
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I will read and review at least 30 books in 2016. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tstelzig on 2016-01-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by tstelzig on 2017-01-04.
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I will have at least 200 logged plays on BGG by the end of 2016 ( 94% confidence )
Created by Chri on 2016-03-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Chri on 2017-01-04.
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I will have at least 365 logged plays on BGG by the end of 2016 ( 68% confidence )
Created by Chri on 2016-03-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Chri on 2017-01-04.
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As of April 1, 2017, there will be at least 45 YouTube videos with over a billion views as measured by YouTube. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-26; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-04.
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24" Dell G-SYNC monitor will be returned before 2017-01-15 ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-28; known on 2017-01-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-03.
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My mom gets a hip replacement in 2016. ( 80% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-08; known on 2017-01-16; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-03.
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The next leader of the Democratic Unionist Party will be Edwin Poots ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-03; known on 2017-01-03; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-03.
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Democrats win House of Representatives in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03.
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Zika will be found not to be the (sole, proximate) cause of microencephaly for the recent cases in Brazil ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-02-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
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In 2016 Tesla Motors will sell a <$30,000 electric car. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2017-01-03.
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In 2016, Sound Transit closes down center roadway on I-90 to begin installing light rail ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jach on 2012-11-05; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Jach on 2017-01-03.
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The US economy will be “worse” in 2016 than in 2012 (i.e. both R and D Presidential candidates will say the economy is worse) ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Jach on 2017-01-03.
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I am still at SFDC in one year ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Jach on 2017-01-03.
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US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2017-01-02.
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I will finish the math for 3rd year physics by end 2016. This includes linear algebra, group theory, Hamiltonian and Lagrangian formulations of classical mechanics, Hilbert Spaces, and full and partial differential equations. ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2017-01-02.
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I will still be below 68lg at the end of 2016 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2017-01-02.
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Price of oil above $60 by the end of this year. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=price+of+oil ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-02.
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Price of oil above $20 by the end of this year. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=price+of+oil ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-02.
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Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in Europe (all present and past EEA members) this year. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-02.
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The Priv will be the last Blackberry branded phone released by Research in Motion as an independent entity. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by quanticle on 2015-12-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by quanticle on 2017-01-02.
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As of January 1, 2017, there will be fewer than 50 YouTube videos with over a billion views as measured by YouTube. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-26; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-02.
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As of January 1, 2017, Fifth Harmony's “Work from Home” and Calvin Harris and Rihanna's “This Is What You Came For”will be the only two YouTube videos released in 2016 that have over a billion views. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-26; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-02.
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Trump will take fewer than 210 electoral votes in 2016 election. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-10; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
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Texas votes Democratic in 2016 presidential election. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-04-14; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
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HRC will take at least 330 electoral votes in 2016 election. ( 55% confidence )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-10; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
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HRC will take at least 280 electoral votes in 2016 election. ( 70% confidence )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-10; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
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Trump will take fewer than 170 electoral votes in 2016 election. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-10; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
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Conditional on Bernie Sanders not winning the Presidential election Millasdiosturd will not be moving to Canada. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-02.
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No new elementary particles to be discovered before December 20, 2016 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-02.
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The lack of magical twins in the School in Magic series will end up being a plot point in the next book. ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-02.
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Conditional on PredictIt still being around by January 1, 2017 I will have doubled my initial set of money on PredictIt by that date. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-11; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-02.