Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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I will get full marks in today's finance programming quiz. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-11-15; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-11-05.
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My Employment & Labor Law professor will allow me to take the quiz I missed last night due to my “nap attempt.” ( 50% confidence )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-03; known on 2015-11-04; judged right by Lissy on 2015-11-04.
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The Republicans will repeal the ACA by November 2015. *I'm going to withdraw this prediction as I wasn't thinking that the Republicans do not hold enough seats to override a presidential veto. ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ren on 2014-11-11; known on 2015-11-08; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2015-11-04.
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K will message me again ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-10-27; known on 2015-11-04; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-11-04.
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That Facebook post will concern the Kickstarter. ( 90% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-11-04; known on 2015-11-04; judged right by aarongertler on 2015-11-04.
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My boss will approve my Thanksgiving vacation request to Puerto Rico. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-02; known on 2015-11-03; judged right by Lissy on 2015-11-03.
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Fnatic will win worlds. ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.
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Origen will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.
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One of the remaining teams (others) will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.
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SKT1 will win worlds. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.
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Submit Facebook thing ( 15% confidence )
Created by eugenium on 2015-10-23; known on 2015-11-02; judged right by eugenium on 2015-11-02.
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Ebola has killed fewer than 1000 people in the US or Canada by November 2015 ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by LogicalOxymoron on 2014-11-22; known on 2015-11-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-01.
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Dragos Ruiu's “badBIOS” claims will be verified as true and due to a attack package akin to Flame/Stuxnet ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-01; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-11-01.
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I will run into another Leeloo on Halloween. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-29; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-11-01.
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By November 2015, Howard Dean will form an exploratory committee to float his name for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-01.
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Australia will win the 2015 Rugby World Cup. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-26; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-10-31.
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Justen and I will dress up as Sirius and the Joker (Nolanverse) for Halloween. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by from3004 on 2015-10-31.
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SMR's first product will launch sometime between October 2014, and October, 2015 ( 70% confidence )
Created by MattG on 2014-09-16; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by MattG on 2015-10-31.
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Ash vs Evil Dead will run 2 or more seasons ( 70% confidence )
Created by silacoid on 2015-08-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by silacoid on 2015-10-31.
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I will complete at least 1 pomodoro after eating out with friends and before midnight. ( 20% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-29; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-10-29.
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Paul Ryan will become Speaker of the House of Representatives in 2015 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-10-23; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-10-29.
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By 7pm tomorrow, it'll be possible to upload an image on the local Agora site. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ray on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Ray on 2015-10-28.
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I will have marked all assignments (except ones suspected of plagiarism) by noon Thursday. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-26; known on 2015-10-29; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-10-28.
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There are at least 10 official HTTP codes in the 300s. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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We probably won't be able to find the rat article with greater than 50% confidence. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Ray on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Ray on 2015-10-28.
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More than one person will take the gum ( 25% confidence )
Created by Ray on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Ray on 2015-10-28.
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At least 3 of the 6 people here would take the gum in the hypothetical situation about being late for a job interview when your breath smells bad and you stop at a convenience store where the clerk is missing. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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A jellyfish has zero neurons. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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I will have more than 12 non-useless ideas. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Ray on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Ray on 2015-10-28.
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In five minutes, I will think of at least five somewhat-useful ideas on how to improve the exercise we’re doing tonight. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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Ray has read at least five fanfiction stories in his life. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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Ray lives in New York. ( 98% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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Rory is not a fan of firefly. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Ray on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Ray on 2015-10-28.
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When I ask Ray whether today was better than average for him, he will say yes. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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Rory is annoyed when meetings go over ( 80% confidence )
Created by Ray on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Ray on 2015-10-28.
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When I ask Ray whether he thinks it’s okay to lie to protect someone’s feelings, he will say it is. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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When I ask Ray whether he considered himself popular in high school, he will say he did not. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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When I ask Ray whether meetings that overrun their scheduled time bother him, he will say they do. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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I will complete my expenses for the tax year before the end of October ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-10-31; judged right by taryneast on 2015-10-28.
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I will complete my next 30-day pushup challenge inside of 35 days ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-10-21; judged wrong by taryneast on 2015-10-28.
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Bharat's ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business report would be at least 105, up from 142 last year. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2015-10-27; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-28.
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The @VegAssist Twitter bot will have at least 60 followers by the end of 2015. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by akrasib on 2015-10-22; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by akrasib on 2015-10-27.
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Chris will officially incorporate a company (with or without Nami) by September 1st, 2015. ( 55% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-07-18; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-10-27.
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I will complete all the little home renovation tasks on my list before my roommate returns in October. ( 20% confidence )
Created by kallman on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-10-20; judged wrong by kallman on 2015-10-27.
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I will complete most of the rennovation tasks before my roommate returns in october (ie >75%) ( 75% confidence )
Created by kallman on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-10-20; judged right by kallman on 2015-10-27.
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We will know the elections results in Poland on Tuesday or earlier ( 81% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-10-25; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by argothiel on 2015-10-26.
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Coalition for the Renewal of the Republic – Liberty and Hope will get to the Parliament during 2015 elections in Poland ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-10-25; known on 2015-10-29; judged wrong by argothiel on 2015-10-26.
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Law and Justice party will win the 2015 elections in Poland ( 95% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-10-25; known on 2015-10-29; judged right by argothiel on 2015-10-26.
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Lowest grade of the Math 101 test will be 13/50 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-23; known on 2015-10-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-26.
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The average for the math 101 test on voting theory will be at least 40/50. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-23; known on 2015-10-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-26.