Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Russia will close its borders by 2016 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-23.
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“Within two generations, the Iranian people will become an anchor of freedom for the middle east.” ( 20% confidence; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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My paper will be accepted to the AISTATS conference. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-07; known on 2015-12-29; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-12-22.
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The next candidate to drop out of the Republican primary will be one of Santorum, Gilmore, Pataki, Graham or Pence. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-12-22.
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In Spanish general elections 2015, PP will get most seats. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-01-14; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-21.
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In Spanish general elections 2015, PSOE will gain most seats. ( 18% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-01-14; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-21.
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150 000 km of National Highways by year end -Road Transport and Highways Minister Nitin Gadkari ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-16; known on 2016-06-25; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-19.
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USA will be No 1 nation in mass shootings for 2013-15. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-03; known on 2015-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-19.
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I will be less surprised when encountering the illusion of transparency. ( 70% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-12-16; judged right by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-19.
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'Nail and Gear' will win the Hello Internet flag election. ( 30% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-17; known on 2015-12-20; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-12-17.
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Created by Lissy on 2015-11-03; known on 2015-12-02; judged wrong by Lissy on 2015-12-17.
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I will earn my first degree with at least a 3.5 GPA in my major. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-17; known on 2015-12-15; judged right by Lissy on 2015-12-17.
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The U.S. federal reserve will raise the federal funds target rate above 0.25% by June 2016 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-11; known on 2016-06-02; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-16.
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The Federal Reserve will not hike the interest rate in 2015. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-12-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-12-16.
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New Star Wars movie out before end of 2015 ( 71% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-16.
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I will be stranded in Sudbury, when the snow causes a greater than three hour delay in my travels East. ( 33% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2015-12-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-16.
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Temple construction begins in Ayodhya on the site of Babri masjid at least by 2015. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by roshni on 2014-05-20; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-15.
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The firm will decide to eliminate my position. Voting occurs on 12/12/15. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Lissy on 2015-12-04; known on 2015-12-15; judged right by Lissy on 2015-12-14.
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No one will use the Prediction Book link to make a concrete, quantitative prediction about Syria ( 60% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-12-02; known on 2016-03-12; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-14.
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Topalov will win the London Chess Classic ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Nakamura will win the London Chess Classic ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Aronian will win the London Chess Classic ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Carlsen will win the London Chess Classic ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Giri will win the London Chess Classic ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Anand will win the London Chess Classic ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Vachier-Lagrave will win the London Chess Classic ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Caruana will win the London Chess Classic ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Grischuk will win the London Chess Classic ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Adams will win the London Chess Classic ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-15; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Either the Koru flag or the Red Peak flag will be chosen in the first New Zealand flag referendum. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-30; known on 2015-12-12; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-12.
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Part or all of the removal of Lewin's videos will be reversed within 1 year. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-10; known on 2015-12-10; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-11.
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Jaime will successfully deliver my phone by the end of this prediction. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Lissy on 2015-12-05; known on 2015-12-09; judged right by Lissy on 2015-12-08.
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I will be single as of October 2015 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2015-10-01; judged right by splorridge on 2015-12-08.
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By the end of 2015, either a presidential candidate, a member of congress, or Obama, will talk about the rise of AI as it relates to job-loss and/or existential crisis. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by FractalHeretic on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-01-27.
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All 14 people who currently say on FB that they are going to my going-away dinner will actually go. ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-12-02; known on 2015-12-07; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-06.
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The VIX index will go above 23 by December 4th. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-11-14; known on 2015-12-05; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-12-05.
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The VIX index will go above 22 by December 4th. ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-11-14; known on 2015-12-05; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-12-05.
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Zhongguo's wind power capacity will hit 120 gigawatts ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2015-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-05.
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ATK will successfully launch by December 4th. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-01; known on 2015-12-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-05.
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I can sell my car within 2 weeks for $3k ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2016-01-03.
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Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-23; known on 2015-11-25; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2015-12-04.
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I get the monetary prize from Peter McIntyre for changing his beliefs the most during the EA Australia retreat. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-23; known on 2015-12-05; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-04.
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No one will use the Prediction Book link to make a concrete, quantitative prediction about Syria ( 60% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-12-02; known on 2016-03-12; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-14.
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I will be accepted for an internship at DeepMind. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-03.
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In the month of November, I will make at least four predictions on this site. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-02.
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The Less Wrong user calcsam will publicly deconvert from Mormonism before 2015. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-12-01.
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“Friends of the Earth (US) will no longer be fighting against nuclear power by December 2015.” —Stewart Brand ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-17; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-01.
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J. will have Eve and me over for dinner before December. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-01.
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Alexander Coward's firing from UC Berkeley Mathematics department will be overruled. ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-15; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-01.
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Volkswagen shares will be traded above 140€ in November ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-12-01.