Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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The average for the 1 PM math 101 class will be higher than that for the 10 AM. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-23; known on 2015-10-26; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-26.
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HPMoR: At least two parties at the battle of the Third Floor Corridor were present for reasons OTHER than Quirrel's influence on their actions. ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-14; judged right by Faceh on 2015-10-25.
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V will visit the TNS lecture. ( 5% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-20; known on 2015-10-25; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2015-10-25.
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“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” —Bill Gates ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-07; known on 2015-08-06; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.
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“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” —Bill Gates ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-07; known on 2015-08-06; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.
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The level of Austin, TX's Lake Travis will slip below 665.0 feet by the end of 2015. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-08-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2015-10-24.
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Nicole Arbour will make a public apology for Dear Fat People in the next 6 weeks. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-12; known on 2015-10-24; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-24.
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I will have low levels of dandruff while continuing to take Zinc supplements over the next 3 months ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2015-06-18; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2015-10-24.
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My opponent has the third Dominator Drone they need to win. ( 70% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-10-24; known on 2015-10-24; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-10-24.
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I will start a website (or blog) on cryonics before September 2015. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-10-24.
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A will have set up stuk before September 2015. ( 70% confidence )
Created by adri on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by adri on 2015-10-23.
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My diabetic partner won't be hospitalized this week despite their intention. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by marchdown on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-09-28; judged right by marchdown on 2015-10-23.
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FF: a prolonged series of predictions (and reflection on the predictions) will help separate things which can be predicted (and which it is useful to predict) from those which are immune to prediction. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by zzkt on 2013-10-09; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by zzkt on 2015-10-23.
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L will pass AuD ( 70% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-21; known on 2015-08-21; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2015-10-23.
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finish bot by friday 22h ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-10-07; known on 2015-10-09; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2015-10-23.
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Nothing very spectacular will happen in the stock market in the next couple of months. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by mayanju on 2015-08-19; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-23.
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Will google's new javascript replacemant, “Dart”, have significant use in the next 3 years ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by drpowell on 2012-10-16; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by drpowell on 2015-10-23.
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Complete marathon ( 20% confidence )
Created by sdafdsfsdfdsfa on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by sdafdsfsdfdsfa on 2015-10-23.
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Paul Ryan will choose to run for Speaker of the House ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-10-09; known on 2015-11-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-10-23.
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I scored within 5% of an 80% on my physics prelim. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2015-10-09; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by azax1 on 2015-10-22.
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If the Democratic Health Reform plan passes, private, group insurance premiums will increase more than 30% by 2015. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-19; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by freyley on 2015-10-22.
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Will not be Teacher's Aide for a third semester. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Makhura47 on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-12-15; judged right by Makhura47 on 2015-10-22.
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Will pass CIT 110 with A- or higher. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Makhura47 on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-09-14; judged right by Makhura47 on 2015-10-22.
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Will pass CIT 110 with A- or higher. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Makhura47 on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-09-14; judged right by Makhura47 on 2015-10-22.
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Will pass FDREL 121 with A- or higher. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Makhura47 on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-09-14; judged wrong by Makhura47 on 2015-10-22.
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I will receive a written reprimand tomorrow. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-20; known on 2015-10-21; judged wrong by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-22.
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Less than 10 people will die of Ebola in Germany within the next year ( 87% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2015-10-21; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-10-21.
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I'll have a test on Tuesday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-19; known on 2015-10-20; judged right by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-20.
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Valve will use the Reborn client for TI6 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.
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Valve will use the Reborn client for the Spring 2016 Dota 2 major tournament ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-06-16; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.
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Valve will use the Reborn client for the Winter 2015 Dota 2 major tournament ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-04-16; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.
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Valve will use the Reborn client for the Fall 2015 Dota 2 major tournament ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-12-16; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.
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Valve will use the Reborn client for the Fall 2015 Dota 2 major tournament ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-12-16; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.
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I will complete my next 30day pushup challenge inside the 30 allotted days ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-10-21; judged wrong by taryneast on 2015-10-20.
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I will miss one of tomorrow's flights. ( 7% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-17; known on 2015-10-19; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-19.
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I will have officially switched to PhB by next semester. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by Calien on 2015-10-19.
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Them's Fightin' Herds will reach its funding goal. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by timujin on 2015-10-02; known on 2015-10-22; judged right by timujin on 2015-10-19.
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Line at the barber will be less than ten minutes. ( 80% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-18; judged right by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-19.
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463 midterm average will be at least 45 out of 60. ( 42% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18.
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463 midterm average will be at least 15 out of 60 ( 90% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18.
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463 midterm average will be at least 25 out of 60. ( 63% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18.
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Average for 463 midterm will be at least 35 out of 60. ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18.
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I will finish grading my 463 students' midterm by midnight EST tonight. ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18.
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I will have sex with someone I know tonight ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-10-17; judged right by RoryS on 2015-10-18.
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The next (new) person I have sex with will not be someone I meet in a pub or a club ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-11-06; judged right by RoryS on 2015-10-18.
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I will find Rory's next sexual partner attractive. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-10-18.
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I will have sex with someone I don't know tonight ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-10-17; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-10-18.
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Something sweet is baking in the oven. ( 60% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-17; known on 2015-10-17; judged right by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-17.
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SO will dominate me in grappling, routinely. ( 70% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-06-13; known on 2016-01-13; judged wrong by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16.
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We will stop seeing each other ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-10-16; judged right by RoryS on 2015-10-16.