Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-10-16.
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The girl that messaged me last night is a real human. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-13; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-16.
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I will trip over the ethernet cable across the living room doorway in the next week ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-10-03; known on 2015-10-10; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-10-13.
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CLG will win worlds. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.
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H2K will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.
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C9 will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.
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Ebola will be considered endemic in a year. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2014-10-14; known on 2015-10-14; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12.
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TSM will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.
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Nicholas Wade will still be employed by the New York Times in a year. ( 40% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by Afforess on 2015-10-09.
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At least one major car brand not affiliated with WV will be caught for emission cheating during the next year ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2015-10-07; known on 2016-10-07; judged right by kuudes on 2015-10-09.
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H. will be late at work ( 80% confidence )
Created by Medea on 2015-10-09; known on 2015-10-10; judged right by Medea on 2015-10-09.
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Angela Merkel to win peace Nobel price ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dhoe on 2015-10-09; known on 2015-10-09; judged wrong by dhoe on 2015-10-09.
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I think Russia will aggress other countries, too, not just Ukraine. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mayanju on 2015-08-19; known on 2017-07-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-09.
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Sam will attend the 2015 Burning Man. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-09-05; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-08.
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I will attend the 2015 Burning Man. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-09-05; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-08.
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Pomeranian Metropolitan Railway in Gdańsk, Poland will be ready by the end of 2015. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tkadlubo on 2013-04-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2015-10-08.
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October 7th, 2015 will be the end of the world. – eBible Fellowship ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-06; known on 2015-10-08; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-08.
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By the end of 2015, either a presidential candidate, a member of congress, or Obama, will talk about the rise of AI as it relates to job-loss and/or existential crisis. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by FractalHeretic on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-01-27.
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will meet L when I'm back ( 65% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-08-06; known on 2015-09-01; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2015-10-07.
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“Within five years the Chinese government will have embarked on a major eugenics program designed to mass produce super-geniuses. (40%)” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2015-10-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-07.
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I will complete my expense for the tax year by the end of September ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-09-30; judged wrong by taryneast on 2015-10-07.
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There will be press report of significant uproar in the U.S. in next 3 years against an anti-Christian video released on the internet (similar to anti muslim video but mirrored) ( 22% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-06.
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Ukraine will default on its debt ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged right by kuudes on 2015-10-06.
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I will complete my expense for the tax year in two weeks time ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-10-05; judged wrong by taryneast on 2015-10-05.
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FBI investigation will find no criminal activity on Hillary Clinton's part. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-30; known on 2016-10-01; judged right by elephantower on 2016-09-28.
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FBI investigation will find no criminal activity on Hillary Clinton's part. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-30; known on 2016-10-01; judged right by elephantower on 2016-09-28.
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The average grade for the test for my Math 101 students in the 1 PM class will be higher than that for the 10 AM class. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-25; known on 2015-09-28; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-02.
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The average grade for the graph theory test for the math 101 students will be at least 75%. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-25; known on 2015-09-28; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-02.
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Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-02; known on 2015-10-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-02.
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My Facebook Page [https://www.facebook.com/ltasbblog] will have 300+ Likes by the end of September. ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dvdddg on 2015-08-14; known on 2015-09-30; judged wrong by unexpectedEOF on 2015-10-01.
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The US federal government to shut down before October 2nd ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2015-10-03; judged wrong by unexpectedEOF on 2015-10-01.
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The US Congress will override the Iran nuclear deal. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-29; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-01.
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Given a no result on the Greek referendum, Greece exits the Eurozone ( 35% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-01.
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I will have sold all Bernie-no shares on PredictionBook that I currently own at a profit by October 10 ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-29; known on 2015-10-11; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-30.
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Somebody will run a World Record at the 2015 Berlin Marathon (as has happened 3 of the last 4, and 5 of the last 8 years). ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by tstelzig on 2015-09-26; known on 2015-09-27; judged wrong by tstelzig on 2015-09-30.
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Matt Llano will break 2:10 at the Berlin Marathon this Sunday (like he says he will). ( 15% confidence )
Created by tstelzig on 2015-09-26; known on 2015-09-27; judged wrong by tstelzig on 2015-09-30.
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The VIX index will go above 27 by October 1st 2015 ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-09-23; known on 2015-10-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-09-29.
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NASA's Mars discovery announcement will involve indications of liquid water. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-09-26; known on 2015-09-28; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2015-09-28.
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This prediction won't have a confidence rate between any interval of length 10 I predict in this prediction within 15 days. Let's say for example 45-55 ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by damaru on 2015-08-15; known on 2015-08-30; judged right by supinf on 2015-09-26.
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The 6.85 patch for Dota 2 will be released today (Seattle time, UTC -0700). ( 75% confidence )
Created by raehik on 2015-09-24; known on 2015-09-24; judged right by raehik on 2015-09-25.
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Syriza will not be part of the majority coalition after the next Greek election. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-07-15; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-24.
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Red Peak Flag to be included in first NZ flag referendum ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-14; known on 2015-12-10; judged right by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-24.
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Alex will learn how to ride a bike at Burning Man. ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-19; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-09-24.
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Q falls asleep in the car on the way to Canada ( 65% confidence )
Created by prophetofprofit on 2015-09-22; known on 2015-09-22; judged wrong by prophetofprofit on 2015-09-23.
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Ukraine will default on its debt ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged right by kuudes on 2015-10-06.
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Assassination Market will still be up in 5 years. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known on 2018-11-23; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-20.
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The Liberal party will win the Canning by-election. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-05; known on 2015-09-20; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-19.
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Ukraine will default on its debt ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged right by kuudes on 2015-10-06.
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Tony Abbott will not be the prime minister after the next federal election. ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2013-12-03; known on 2016-09-09; judged right by waveman on 2015-09-19.
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I will complete my 30day push-up challenge in the next three weeks (I am now halfway through) ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-03; known on 2015-09-24; judged right by taryneast on 2015-09-18.