Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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The IMF will vote in favor of adding the Yuan to the Special Drawing Rights basket on Nov 30th, 2015 ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-11-27; known on 2015-11-30; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.
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I will finish grading both my 101 exams and my 463 exams before Monday. ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-28; known on 2015-11-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-30.
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Reduce food costs by $100 next month. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-11-30; judged wrong by memoriesofbutter on 2015-11-30.
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I think this song in ex machina is by the band AIR. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-30; known on 2015-11-30; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-30.
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The music in ex machina when Caleb wakes up is by Mozart. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-30; known on 2015-11-30; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-30.
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The music in ex machina when Caleb wakes up is by Mozart. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-30; known on 2015-11-30; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-30.
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Nathan and I will do the thing this week ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-11-22; known on 2015-11-29; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-11-30.
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“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” —Bill Gates ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-07; known on 2015-08-06; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.
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I will mark this prediction as correct. ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-11-29; known on 2015-11-30; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-11-29.
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A and M will be regularly using PredictionBook one year from now. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2015-11-27; judged wrong by adri on 2015-11-29.
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“Potential GDP growth might also take a hit, falling from around 2.8% during 1997-2008 to around 2.25% in the coming years.” —Nouriel Roubini ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2015-06-15; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2015-09-02.
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I will complete the problems from chapter 4 of Awodey to my satisfaction by midnight Sunday evening. ( 70% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-26; known on 2015-11-30; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-11-27.
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The difference in pomodoros done on eating vs non-fasting days will turn out to be significant at p<0.05 (two-tailed). ( 20% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-26; known on 2015-11-26; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-11-26.
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Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-23; known on 2015-11-25; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2015-12-04.
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I predict that the water at Revelator is filtered ( 60% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-23; known on 2015-11-24; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-23.
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I will run at least twice this calendar week ( 80% confidence )
Created by taryneast on 2015-11-11; known on 2015-11-15; judged right by taryneast on 2015-11-23.
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At least 1 person will be arrested in Belgium before the end of the prediction for charges that include something related to terrorism. ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2015-11-22; known on 2015-11-29; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-23.
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I will do at least 77 pomodoro-equivalents this week. ( 50% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-17; known on 2015-11-23; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-11-23.
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In the next two weeks something horrible will happen to me (I'll trip on a busy intersection, someone will publicly insult me, I'll be fired, etc) AND I will be unable to cope with it (ie I'll just have a compete mental break down and be unable to functio ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-07; known on 2015-11-21; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-21.
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My biopsy result with come back negative ie good ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2015-11-11; known on 2015-11-21; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-11-21.
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The list of top charities that GiveWell will release next will include a charity that is not currently listed. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-11-20.
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It will take me 25 minutes or less to reconcile and submit 5 benefit invoices. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-20; known on 2015-11-20; judged wrong by Lissy on 2015-11-20.
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The Secular Solstice event is able to raise $6125 by Nov. 18th. ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-11-13; known on 2015-11-19; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-11-19.
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My most recent facebook post asking for virtual hugs (because I had a terrible day) in the form of likes will receive at least 15 likes in the next 24 hours. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-18; known on 2015-11-19; judged right by Lissy on 2015-11-18.
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The next candidate to drop out of the Republican Presidential primary will be one of Jindal, Santorum, Gilmore, Pataki, Graham or Pence ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-11-18.
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Sam's comment will reach 1000 karma. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-11-13; known on 2015-12-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2015-11-17.
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I will master peg method. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-11-16; judged right by memoriesofbutter on 2015-11-17.
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I will feel better after going to the gym to squat during lunch ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-17; known on 2015-11-18; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-17.
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We have a working dishwasher after the scheduled engineer visit ( 35% confidence )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-15; known on 2015-11-17; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-11-17.
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Make 4. ( 60% confidence )
Created by imuli on 2015-11-16; known on 2015-11-16; judged right by imuli on 2015-11-16.
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It will take me 45 minutes or less to walk to Banana Republic, purchase a pair of pants, and walk back to the apartment. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-15; known on 2015-11-16; judged right by Lissy on 2015-11-16.
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My money will have gone through when I check tonight ( 20% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-11-04; known on 2015-11-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-11-15.
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Carlton, my boss, will call me in his office and give me a lecture about how I haven't registered for IWCF well control school. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-01; known on 2015-11-15; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-15.
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Ronda Rousey will win her Nov. 14 fight with Holly Holm. ( 74% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-03; known on 2015-11-15; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-11-15.
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I will win the KH Handbook Review contract at the exact price I proposed. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-02; known on 2015-11-12; judged wrong by Lissy on 2015-11-14.
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Life will win the final match of WCS Global 2015. (Note: Outcome has happened, but I haven't seen it yet.) ( 60% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-11-13; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-11-13.
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I will do at least 15 pomodoro-equivalents today. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-11-13; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-11-13.
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Greece will default on it's sovereign debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both) ( 65% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-11-12.
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I will feel noticeably less depressed after running 1.5 miles and doing some light curls. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-11-12; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-12.
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It will take me 30 minutes to fix my PE application ( 60% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-11; known on 2015-11-11; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-11.
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The parcel at the delivery office is my contact lenses ( 95% confidence )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-11; known on 2015-11-11; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-11-11.
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I think that the most common biking accident is a car nudging a rider while passing ( 60% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-11; known on 2015-11-11; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-11.
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Max Steinberg will place in the top 3 at the 2015 World Series Of Poker (WSOP) Main Event. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-09; known on 2015-11-10; judged wrong by Lissy on 2015-11-10.
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The gym will be full enough to require waiting for a bench. ( 15% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-11-09; known on 2015-11-09; judged wrong by memoriesofbutter on 2015-11-09.
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The gym will be full enough to require waiting for a bench. ( 15% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-11-09; known on 2015-11-09; judged wrong by memoriesofbutter on 2015-11-09.
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Zendikar fetchlands reprinted in Commander 2015 ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by TheSkeward on 2015-08-07; known on 2015-11-13; judged right by pjg5172 on 2015-11-09.
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Maldives will not have the same president or vice president at the end of 3/2016 as it has now (Yameen, Adeep). ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-10-06; known on 2016-03-31; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-06.
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Finnish PM Sipilä will not propose the President of Republic to dissolve the current Sipilä Government in Fri 2015-11-06 Helsinki time. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2015-11-06; known on 2015-11-07; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-06.
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Health care spending in the US will exceed 19% of GDP sometime before 2015. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-06; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-06.
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In the CPR training this wednesday I will feel uncomfortably awkward around my coworkers and I'll ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-02; known on 2015-11-05; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-05.