Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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I will push the pull updates before lunch. ( 90% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-08-27; judged right by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.
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My pull will be merged today. ( 75% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-08-28; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.
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My older pull will be merged today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-08-28; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.
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My pull will be merged today. ( 75% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-08-28; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.
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My older pull will be merged today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-08-28; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.
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I will have a draft of the updated analytics available by the end of the week. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-08-29; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.
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I will get a job offer from GoDaddy. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-13; known on 2015-08-29; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-28.
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We won't miss any train in our connection. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Chri on 2015-08-26; known on 2015-08-26; judged right by Chri on 2015-08-28.
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I will complete the proposal tomorrow. ( 60% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-26; known on 2015-08-27; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27.
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I will write all the required tests tomorrow morning. ( 75% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-26; known on 2015-08-26; judged right by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27.
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I will have to help debug the configuration error. ( 50% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-26; known on 2015-08-27; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27.
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I'll get accepted to volunteer at EA global Oxford ( 10% confidence )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-26; known on 2015-08-28; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-08-27.
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I will have the proposal ready for review before lunch. ( 40% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-25; known on 2015-08-25; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-26.
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I will finish updates based on yesterday's review before 3. ( 75% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-25; known on 2015-08-25; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-26.
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I will read a chapter before dinner. ( 80% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-25; known on 2015-08-25; judged right by reubensandwich on 2015-08-26.
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Brayden will get accepted into YC at today's interview. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dusk on 2015-08-25; known on 2015-08-27; judged wrong by dusk on 2015-08-26.
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I will do any work tonight. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-24; known on 2015-08-24; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-25.
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I will do enough tomorrow morning before going to work. ( 30% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-24; known on 2015-08-24; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-25.
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I will do enough tomorrow morning before going to work. ( 30% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-24; known on 2015-08-24; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-25.
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Invest 97L will become at least a category 1 hurricane ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Afforess on 2015-08-21; known on 2015-09-07; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-08-25.
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Nothing very spectacular will happen in the stock market in the next couple of months. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by mayanju on 2015-08-19; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-23.
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Nothing very spectacular will happen in the stock market in the next couple of months. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by mayanju on 2015-08-19; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-23.
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Nothing very spectacular will happen in the stock market in the next couple of months. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by mayanju on 2015-08-19; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-23.
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The VIX index will go above 32 before September 18th, 2015. ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-08-23; known on 2015-09-18; judged right by kuudes on 2015-08-24.
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Nothing very spectacular will happen in the stock market in the next couple of months. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by mayanju on 2015-08-19; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-23.
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Nothing very spectacular will happen in the stock market in the next couple of months. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by mayanju on 2015-08-19; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-23.
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Nothing very spectacular will happen in the stock market in the next couple of months. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by mayanju on 2015-08-19; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-23.
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I will complete at least three more pomodoro cycles tonight. ( 70% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-03-22; known on 2014-03-23; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-24.
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I will finish chapter ten of my book before going to sleep tonight. ( 80% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-03-22; known on 2014-03-23; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-24.
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I will watch one of my three video lectures tonight. ( 60% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-03-22; known on 2014-03-23; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-24.
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“No Award” sweeps the Hugos this year. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-08-30; judged right by kuudes on 2015-08-23.
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“No Award” takes at least one Hugo category this year. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-08-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-23.
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I will get rained on at ArcTanGent Festival ( 75% confidence )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-08-18; known on 2015-08-23; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-08-23.
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I will win this LoL match ( 51% confidence )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-08-23; known on 2015-08-23; judged right by Nikolas on 2015-08-23.
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By 2015, evidence (such as a full-text paper) will emerge indicating that the 1995 Jarzombek study of US Defense software projects exists, was collected independently of the 1979 GAO data set, and independently found the same frequencies. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2013-04-13; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2015-08-22.
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By 2015, evidence (such as a full-text paper) will emerge indicating that the supposed results of the 1995 Jarzombek study of US Defense software projects were in fact the result of error, distorsion or fraud rather than conclusions from an actual survey ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2013-04-13; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2015-08-22.
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Apple to introduce a flatscreen TV product within 2 years. Cf. http://qz.com/104796/heres-all-the-evidence-that-apple-is-making-an-actual-tv-and-the-remote-will-likely-be-your-hand/ ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2013-07-16; known on 2015-07-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2015-08-22.
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Earth shock will be rated at least 60 on http://www.heartharena.com/tierlist ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PurpleDango on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-08-22; judged wrong by PurpleDango on 2015-08-22.
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I will get a job offer from Tuft and Needle. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-10; known on 2015-08-25; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-21.
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By 2035 a superconductor with a critical temperature of at least 200 K will be discovered. ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-06; known on 2035-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-21.
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I will attempt to learn Haskell by August 20th, 2015 without stopping partway through ( 60% confidence )
Created by earfluffy on 2015-05-19; known on 2015-08-20; judged wrong by earfluffy on 2015-08-21.
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NYSE:BG will drop below $73.00 at any point by September 15, 2015 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Dapple on 2015-08-14; known on 2015-09-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-08-20.
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The VIX index goes above 16.00 any time before Sept 18, 2015 ( 89% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-08-20; known on 2015-09-18; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-08-20.
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Invest 96L will become at least a Category 1 hurricane ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-08-17; known on 2015-08-31; judged right by Afforess on 2015-08-20.
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A will be at Bs party or on vacation. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Chri on 2015-07-12; known on 2015-08-15; judged right by Chri on 2015-08-20.
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“Potential GDP growth might also take a hit, falling from around 2.8% during 1997-2008 to around 2.25% in the coming years.” —Nouriel Roubini ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2015-06-15; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2015-09-02.
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I'll keep translating a post from the Sequences a day for a week ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-08-16; known on 2015-08-24; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-08-20.
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I will be >207lbs, <10% bf by Fall 2015 ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-13; known on 2015-08-20; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-08-19.
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I will keep making a prediction a day until Aug 31 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-08-14; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-08-19.
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Assange leaves the embassy within a year. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2015-08-18; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-08-18.