PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Judged Predictions

I will still self-identify as an effective altruist at the end of this year ( 90% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
HP MoR: Harry/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
I will become convinced enough by neoreactionary arguments that, at the end of the year, it would not be clearly mistaken for someone to label me a 'neoreactionary', regardless of whether I personally self-identify as one. ( 5% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
HP MoR: Harry/Tracey will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
I will encounter a girl, whom I genuinely want to be with and we'll date and be all cute and whatnot. (by the end of this year). ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
HP MoR: Harry/Draco will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
HP MoR: Draco/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
I will become sympathetic to mainstream analytic metaphysics by the end of the year ( 2% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
HP MoR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did. ( 54% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
Ryan and I will write a paper in the next year for the Foundational Research Institute ( 50% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
Ryan & I will have an anecdote that is equal to or better than the prostitute story by the end of this year ( 3% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-06-20; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
Blizzard will release Hearthstone to the consoles this year. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by VoidChronos on 2015-04-16; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by VoidChronos on 2016-01-01.
USA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016. ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
Predictionbook's overall confidence will remain within 5% of accuracy in buckets 50-90 by 2016. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sdr on 2015-07-09; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
Vladimir Putin will be president of Russia as of 1st January 2016 ( 91% confidence; 18 wagers )

Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
Sweden defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers )

Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
Norway defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 22 wagers )

Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
Luxembourg defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 14 wagers )

Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
Germany defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
Finland defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers )

Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
Denmark defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
Any of Denmark, Finland, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway or Sweden defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
The Euro will not be dead by 2016 ( 94% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by challquist on 2013-04-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
Queen Elizabeth II will announce her abdication before 1st January 2016 ( 10% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
Copyright ruled unconstitutional by a US court before 2016. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
The current criteria for awarding the “Poseidon award” offered by the seastead insitute, will be met by someone by 2015. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Konkvistador on 2011-08-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by a0c4a123f7 on 2016-01-01.
@katyperry will have the most Twitter followers at the end of 2015 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2016-01-01.
There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
Brent crude trades below $20 at some point in 2015 ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
Global thermonuclear war, worldwide by Jan 1, 2016 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi will die before the end of the year. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
TTIP will not come into force ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by modulus on 2015-07-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
“Within two generations, the Iranian people will become an anchor of freedom for the middle east.” ( 20% confidence; 10 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
NATO and Russia will not have exchanged fire by the end of 2015. ( 83% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
I will have a rating above 1500 on lichess.org at the end of 2015 ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
Bitcoin over $1000 at any point before end of 2015 ( 12% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by learnmethis on 2015-02-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
US Federal Reserve stuck near the 0 bound (say, <1.5% with no willingness to increase it further in the immediate future) by Jan 1, 2016 (see http://www.global-rates.com/interest-rates/central-banks/central-bank-america/fed-interest-rate.aspx ) ( 99% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-31.
War between North and South Korea breaks out by Jan 1, 2016 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-31.
I will decide on MIRI as a charity that I donate a proportion of my donation money to. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-12-31.
On Dec 31, 2015, the price of regular gas at my local gas station will be > $3.50 ( 15% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
On Dec 31, 2015, the price of regular gas at my local gas station will be > $3.10 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
At the end of the year, AMF will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
At the end of the year, GiveDirectly will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
Before Dec 31, 2015 Sam will post more than 25 blog posts. ( 15% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
Before Dec 31, 2015 Sam will post at least 12 blog posts. ( 70% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
Before Dec 31, 2015 I will post more than 25 blog posts. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
Before Dec 31, 2015 I will post at least 12 blog posts. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
North Korea’s government will not collapse (whether due to revolt/civil war, or war with another country) before Dec 31, 2015. ( 93% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
My computer will require repairs or replacement before Dec 31, 2015. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.