PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will complete my 30day push-up challenge in the next 15 days (I have 15 days left) ( 80% confidence )

Created by taryneast on 2015-09-03; known on 2015-09-18; judged right by taryneast on 2015-09-18.

In the next month, Bernie Sanders will have another public appearance disrupted by BLM activists. ( 18% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-12; known on 2015-09-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-09-17.

I will not have credentials to my school's web hosting by the end of next week. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by raehik on 2015-09-02; known on 2015-09-11; judged right by raehik on 2015-09-17.

Hare una prediccion cada dia (una semana) ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by acradis on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-09-17.

The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in September. ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-08-23; known on 2015-09-17; judged right by Afforess on 2015-09-17.

Copper prices to fall by >=50% in 3 years. —Michael Pettis ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-16; known on 2015-09-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-17.

I will make > 100 technical anki flashcards for perfusion/cryopreservation topics by 6 weeks from now. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Porejide on 2015-04-12; known on 2015-05-24; judged wrong by Porejide on 2015-09-15.

One of the five BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) will experience a revolution, civil war, secession or major social unrest until 2025. ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Julius on 2015-09-13; known on 2025-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15.

HP MoR: All Voldemort's horcruxes except the Pioneer probe will be destroyed, and Voldemort is doomed to wander the cosmos forever ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-09-14.

The rationality workshop planned for September will work out. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-30; known on 2015-10-16; judged right by Nikolas on 2015-09-14.

John McDonnell to be the next UK Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2015-09-13; known on 2015-09-23; judged right by splorridge on 2015-09-13.

“US Air Force to award contract for new aerial refuelling tankers to any other company or companies” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-09-12.

“US Air Force to award contract for new aerial refuelling tankers to Northrop Grumman and/or Airbus” —Intrade ( 10% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-09-12.

“US Air Force to award contract for new aerial refuelling tankers to Boeing” —Intrade ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2015-12-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-09-12.

Terminator Genisys will outperform Terminator Salvation in terms of gross box office take. ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-05; known on 2015-09-20; judged right by Afforess on 2015-09-12.

Price for Fiji Airlines to Nadi departing Auckland 31 December to not increase overnight between 12 and 13 Sep 2015 (currently on $544 NZD as per Webjet) ( 65% confidence )

Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-11; known on 2015-09-11; judged wrong by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-11.

Price for Air NZ to Nadi departing Auckland 31 December to not increase overnight between 12 and 13 Sep 2015 (currently on $498 NZD as per Webjet) ( 65% confidence )

Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-11; known on 2015-09-11; judged right by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-11.

Price for Air NZ to Nadi departing Auckland 31 December to not increase overnight between 12 and 13 Sep 2015 (currently on $498 NZD as per Webjet) ( 65% confidence )

Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-11; known on 2015-09-11; judged right by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-11.

The US Supreme Court will rule in favor of the government in King v. Burwell ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-11-14; known on 2015-11-15; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.

'Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history' ( 89% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.

“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” —Bill Gates ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-07; known on 2015-08-06; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.

The Bernie Sanders Campaign Subreddit, http://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/, will have more than 100,000 subscribers by the end of 2015. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Faceh on 2015-05-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Faceh on 2015-09-09.

“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” —Bill Gates ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-07; known on 2015-08-06; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.

Burning man predictions: I will throw up on the plane. ( 8% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.

Burning man predictions: I will see >0 topless girls. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.

Burning man predictions: I will cry >0 times. ( 40% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.

Burning man predictions: We’ll miss our connecting flight on the way there. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.

Burning man predictions: I will see Vika. ( 99% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.

Burning man predictions: Giant penis tower will be there again. ( 65% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.

Burning man predictions: I will have a nightmare involving bugs. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.

Burning man predictions: I will get at least 1 bug bite. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.

I will weigh 63kg by September ( 60% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2015-09-07.

Greek Central Government or some Greek Institutions will agree to move at least 24 000 million euro worth of assets to a judicial person outside Greek jurisdiction. The initial agreement happens within the deadline of this prediction. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kuudes on 2015-07-12; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-03.

Uptown Funk will be on Just Dance 2016 ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Adele_L on 2015-04-04; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-09-03.

Final grades for my students will be in by May 14 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-14; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-03.

Florian Luca and Carl Pomerance's bound on the radical of a perfect number will be improved within 3 years by replacing the 17/26 exponent with some smaller exponent. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-03; known on 2015-09-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-03.

I will get a library card by the end of the month. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-24; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-09-03.

“Potential GDP growth might also take a hit, falling from around 2.8% during 1997-2008 to around 2.25% in the coming years.” —Nouriel Roubini ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2015-06-15; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2015-09-02.

MetaMed to face legal challenges from regulators by 2016 (S.T. Rev via Twitter). ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-03-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-09-02.

This final PB API test will work correctly ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by raehik on 2015-09-02; known on 2015-09-02; judged wrong by raehik on 2015-09-02.

This PB API date + time test will work correctly ( 40% confidence )

Created by raehik on 2015-09-02; known on 2015-09-02; judged right by raehik on 2015-09-02.

My first PredictionBook API call will work ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by raehik on 2015-09-02; known on 2015-09-02; judged wrong by raehik on 2015-09-02.

I'll finish Halmos Naive Set Theory by Aug 31 ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Nikolas on 2015-08-15; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-09-02.

I will fix the versioning issue tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-31; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-09-01.

I will have the analytics update ready tomorrow. ( 30% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-31; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-09-01.

I will weigh more than 200lb before August 28th, 2015 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by lumpzy on 2015-05-13; known on 2015-08-28; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-09-01.

I will be >200 lbs, <13%bf by fall 2015 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-13; known on 2015-08-20; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-08-31.

I will finish the current chapter (second to last) of this book before going to sleep tonight. ( 60% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30; known on 2015-08-31; judged right by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.

I will finish this book before going to sleep tonight. ( 10% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30; known on 2015-08-31; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.

I will have moved into my new flat on time. ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Josh Holland on 2015-08-14; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-08-30.

Statistics

Judged Predictions