Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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During 2015 I will lose my wallet. ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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During 2015 I will run at least 1 marathon. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Wumpus will still be alive at the end of 2015. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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In 2015 I will have a baby. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Sam will still be involved with the morality lab at the end of 2015. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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I will still work for my current company at the end of 2015. ( 85% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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I will end the year living in a Rationalist house. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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I will end the year still living in the Cambridge area. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Sam will be a vegan at the end of the year. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Sam will be a vegetarian or a pescetarian at the end of the year. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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I will be a vegan at the end of the year. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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I will be a vegetarian or pescetarian at the end of the year. ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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In addition to Pluto's 5 known moons, at least 3 additional satellites will be identified following the New Horizons fly-by. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dusk on 2013-07-17; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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Mitt Romney will decide to run for President in 2016 ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SalTnutZ1 on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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The spot price of NYMEX crude oil will be $100/barrel or higher on December 31, 2015. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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voat.co to become a top 300 site by the end of 2015 ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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The Euro won’t be the official currency in Greece at the end of 2015 ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-12-06; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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Mitt Romney will decide to run for President in 2016 ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SalTnutZ1 on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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By the end of 2015, Windows Phone 8 (including successors based on it) will not have as much as 10% of market share, measured as either number of active phones or phones+tablets. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by scav on 2012-08-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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Saudis will cut oil production sometime in 2015. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-28; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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Bharat will be ranked 2nd in the world by internet users, at least 402 million. ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-19; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-30.
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The next candidate to drop out of the Republican primary will be one of Santorum, Gilmore, Pataki, or Huckabee. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-22; known on 2016-01-25; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30.
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I will sell my Subaru Forester before returning to the Bay Area ( 30% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2015-12-26; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by ioannes on 2015-12-29.
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I will submit my third DAND project by the end of the weekend. ( 65% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2015-12-26; known on 2015-12-28; judged wrong by ioannes on 2015-12-29.
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India will overtake US as Facebook's biggest market by end of 2015 — CNBC, Gartner ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-17; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-29.
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Facebook will be valued at less than $30 billion by 2015. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by maxdemian on 2011-03-07; known on 2015-12-30; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-29.
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Before Dec 31, 2015 Sam will post at least 5 blog posts. ( 90% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-29.
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Sam’s computer will require repairs or replacement before Dec 31, 2015. ( 20% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-29.
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We will sell the car before Dec 31, 2015. ( 45% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-29.
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In 2015 I will read at least 15 books. ( 90% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-29.
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New Star Wars movie will be better than Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones ( 70% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28.
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Iraqi government will liberate Ramadi from Islamic State. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-26; known on 2016-01-12; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-28.
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There will be a 3Dmovie made of the Odyssey within three years. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-12-29; known on 2015-12-28; judged wrong by NancyLebovitz on 2015-12-28.
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There will be a terrorist attack on US interests in 2015 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by SalTnutZ1 on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-27.
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I will write a blog post about “One Minute to Midnight” tomorrow. ( 80% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2015-12-26; known on 2015-12-27; judged right by ioannes on 2015-12-27.
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UK will default on its debt. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-27.
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France will default on its debt ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-27.
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Following the next election, at least one newly elected Board member will attempt to disband the Bitcoin Foundation (pass a motion or make a statement to that effect). Election of Cody Wilson is also an automatic “right” judgment. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by learnmethis on 2015-02-11; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26.
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I will assign between 10-30% of my Calc I students this semester. a grade of C- or lower. ( 75% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-07; known on 2014-12-25; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26.
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Luke turns, or has turned, to the Dark Side in Star Wars episode 7. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2014-07-20; known on 2015-12-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26.
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I will have grades in for all three classes before Tuesday evening. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-20; known on 2015-12-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26.
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University of Ottawa yoga class that was cancelled due to cultural appropriation complaints will be un-cancelled in the next month. ( 13% confidence; 53 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-11-23; known on 2015-12-22; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-12-26.
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The Force Awakens will reveal the Darth Darth Binks theory to be broadly correct. ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Calien on 2015-11-25; known on 2015-12-17; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-26.
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I will receieve “Reasons and Persons” and “On What Matters” by Derek Parfit as Christmas gifts this year. ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-26; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-26.
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Effective US Federal Funds Rate will stay below 0.25% at least until 2016 ( 75% confidence )
Created by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-07-29; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-12-25.
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week of dec 22, the Central Bank of Turkey will meet, and do central-banky things. ( 93% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2016-01-06; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-25.
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I will recover by Tuesday. This flu-like has lasted five days so far. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-11-15; known on 2015-11-17; judged right by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24.
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The DRACO Indiegogo campaign will reach 100,000. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-12-12; judged wrong by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24.
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The DRACO Indiegogo campaign will reach 100,000. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-12-12; judged wrong by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24.
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“Within two generations, the Iranian people will become an anchor of freedom for the middle east.” ( 20% confidence; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.