Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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I will not use any cord on the hiking trip. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-08-06; known on 2015-08-22; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2015-08-18.
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I will get a job offer from Le Tote. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-10; known on 2015-08-25; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-18.
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I will get at least one job offer. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-14; known on 2015-08-28; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-18.
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The Litecoin-Bitcoin exchange rate will reach 5:1 L:B or greater by 2015. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mavant on 2013-08-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-08-17.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and Gilderoy Lockhart gave false memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-08-17.
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HP MoR: Harry's vague fear in chapter 10 (“What happens if you fail?”“Something terrible…”) is not rationalisation but represents advance knowledge of what happens, i.e. there's some causal connection to the future (chapter 90+). ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-08-17.
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HPMoR (up to 98): At some point in the story, cryonics will be mentioned. ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by nigr on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: The constant glitch in the Marauder's Map is the spirit of Voldemort or Riddle ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-08-17.
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Steam or Origin will offer a cloud based gaming solution ala onlive.com by 2015. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-08-17.
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Oil price (Brent crude) will be above $100/bbl in August ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moridinamael on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-08-16; judged wrong by moridinamael on 2015-08-17.
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Tulio has a kid within next year ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by minilodon on 2014-08-14; known on 2015-08-15; judged wrong by tdhellma on 2015-08-17.
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The computer will reach a hotter maximum temperature during stress test inside the minifridge than outside (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8bhGw4vUFE) ( 80% confidence )
Created by PurpleDango on 2015-08-16; known on 2015-08-16; judged right by PurpleDango on 2015-08-16.
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Oil price (Brent crude) will be above $60/bbl in August ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by moridinamael on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-08-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-08-16.
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I will have over 100 complete predictions by August ( 60% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-24; known on 2015-08-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-08-16.
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The televised debates between party leaders proposed by the major broadcasters of the United Kingdom in the run-up to the 2015 general election will not happen. ( 44% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-08-16.
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I do the M1 exam this year ( 25% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-08-16.
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Someone in FM does the M1 exam this year. ( 40% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-08-16.
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I will get my full deposit back from my current landlord ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-09-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-08-16.
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I will finish the Couch to 5K program inside of the next 3 weeks (given I'm now about to begin week 7 again, and I have family arriving in two weeks) ( 80% confidence )
Created by taryneast on 2015-07-30; known on 2015-08-20; judged right by taryneast on 2015-08-15.
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I will visit the top of the Rockefeller Center tonight ( 75% confidence )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-31; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by Nikolas on 2015-08-14.
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I will finish at least one textbook in the next two weeks ( 10% confidence )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-08-14; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-08-14.
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I won't get hit by a bus today. ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-12; known on 2015-08-13; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-13.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-13.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-13.
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Greece will default on it's sovereign debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both) ( 65% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-11-12.
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The STM will have the Du Collège escalator back in service in July 2015. ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by DaFranker on 2015-07-08; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by DaFranker on 2015-08-10.
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“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” —Bill Gates ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-07; known on 2015-08-06; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.
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Vinay Deolalikar's proof of P≠NP will not be accepted by the Clay Mathematics Institute. ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2015-08-09; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-09.
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“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” —Bill Gates ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-07; known on 2015-08-06; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.
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James Eagan Holmes, known perpetrator of the 2012 theater massacre in Aurora, CO, will be found not guilty by reason of insanity. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-08-07.
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Should James Eagan Holmes be found guilty, he will be sentenced capital punishment. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-10-29; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-08-07.
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Finish Superintelligence today. ( 98% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-08-06; known on 2015-08-07; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2015-08-06.
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WIndows 10 installation will succeed on next try. ( 35% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-08-06; known on 2015-08-07; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2015-08-06.
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'The Internet has a greater reach than television' by/during 2014 (America) ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by supinf on 2015-08-05.
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It'll take me less than two months to learn high school economics and business studies. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2015-08-05; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-08-05.
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By, or around the time the next expansion for Hearthstone is released, Blizzard will fulfill at least one of the following four community's wishes (clarification in comments). ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by timujin on 2015-05-26; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by timujin on 2015-08-05.
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In one year, my room will contain no kumquats. ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-04; known on 2015-08-04; judged right by Ham Nox on 2015-08-05.
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Puerto Rico will default this year. Puerto Rican government is $73 billion in debt, similar debt to New York — a very large state economy — but it only has the population of Connecticut. ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-07; known on 2015-12-27; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-04.
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A discovery that diseases can be transmitted or transferred by pure thought from one location to another will be found in 2014. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2015-08-03.
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I will not become paraplegic or otherwise significantly paralyzed within the next year. ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-03; known on 2015-08-03; judged right by Ham Nox on 2015-08-03.
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I'll be addicted to this site even after 1 year. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2015-08-02; judged wrong by David on 2015-08-02.
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PredictionBook will feature a JSON API before August. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-24; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-01.
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The Revenant I just passed will table in my Magic Origins draft. ( 55% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-08-01; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-08-01.
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Obormot will not contact a HEMA branch in his area before the end of July. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-27; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by Madplatypus on 2015-08-01.
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I will complete physics and chemistry this summer before fall semester. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-23; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-08-01.
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I will complete summer physics ii and chemistry courses with nothing lower than an A- ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-23; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-08-01.
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I will get an amusing story from my next Tinder date ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-05; known on 2015-07-06; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-08-01.
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My math research this summer will result in me publishing a paper. ( 80% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2015-06-14; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2015-08-01.
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I will throw up in the next 12 months. (Aug 1 2014 – Aug 1 2015) ( 14% confidence )
Created by spicedpiano on 2014-08-01; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by spicedpiano on 2015-08-01.
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Ron will not be involved in any romantic relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by from3004 on 2015-07-31.