Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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I will get an A in health for the year. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-17; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by cobalt on 2014-07-08.
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I will pass health class. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-13; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by cobalt on 2014-07-08.
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I will get a job offer from the company I interviewed at Monday ( 60% confidence )
Created by glennonymous on 2014-06-12; known on 2014-07-07; judged wrong by glennonymous on 2014-07-07.
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'Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.' will continue for a second season. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bluebart on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-09-24; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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Jeremy Lin's NBA career will last over 2 years (defining he's done if he doesn't play more than 250 mins a season — around 3 minutes a game) ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05; known on 2014-06-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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At most 1 of the NYT profiled hot startups (Pinterest, Path, Pinwheel, Taskrabbit, Dropbox, Square, Quora, Uber, Airtime) will be acquired before the end of 2013. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-07; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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Europe will abandon austerity policy by end of 2013 ( 65% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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Violent crimes in NY going up (2013 rate > 2011 rate by more than 10%) ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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NYPD will publicly reassess its shooting policy for its officers before end of 2013 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-25; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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Cyprus will still be subject to capital controls a year from now (until 4/1/2014) ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-25; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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Fed conditions of employment < 6.5% or inflation > 2.5% will hit before June 30, 2015 ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-13; known on 2015-06-30; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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Fed will change the monthly QE3 purchase size/type by Feb 2014 (now $40b MBS a month) ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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Romney will cooperate with Obama on some political initiative in 2013 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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News will report stories of robotic submission of NCAA pool entries to Warren Buffett's 2014 pool. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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Submarines will find flight MH370, or it will be forever lost. ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-24; known on 2014-06-15; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-07-06.
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I will clean my car out by next saturday night ( 30% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-29; known on 2014-07-05; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-07-05.
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Rebekah Brooks will be convicted, while Andy Coulson will go free in the News Corp scandal ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-04.
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I'll go on the Hamptons trip with Star and Peter, serving as a designated driver. ( 20% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-28; known on 2014-07-04; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-07-04.
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Boss will give me a plan to get me to mgmt by EoCY. ( 30% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-03; known on 2014-07-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-03.
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The second Android: Netrunner big box expansion will feature Jinteki (in the same way as the first featured Haas-Bioroid). ( 90% confidence )
Created by Thelas on 2013-10-10; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by Thelas on 2014-07-02.
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NYRRB: I will keep my New Year's resolutions from now until the fall equinox. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-01; known on 2014-09-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-02.
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I will go to at least 1 frat party during the 2013/14 school year. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-09-07; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-07-01.
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The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least July 1, 2014 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-03; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-07-01.
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weirderweb.com will get a book deal. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ZrCa on 2013-02-12; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by John Maxwell IV on 2014-07-01.
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“Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014.” — Mark T. Williams (http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12) ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-12-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-07-01.
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There will be fewer than 20 wagers on this prediction two weeks from today. ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-07-01.
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I will still not have blacked out from alcohol consumption by the end of this June ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by Rowan93 on 2014-07-01.
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I will weigh at least 80kg by the end of June ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by Rowan93 on 2014-07-01.
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Captain America Winter Soldier will do about as expected (4wk gross within +/-20% of HSX @ 191.90m) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomMovie on 2012-11-19; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by Qiaochu on 2014-06-30.
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Brayden accepts a job offer from a company in the Bay Area that will sponsor a visa, either during or following his trip that ends June 3rd 2014 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dusk on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by dusk on 2014-06-30.
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Brayden receives a job offer from a company in the Bay Area that will sponsor a visa, either during or following his trip that ends June 3rd 2014 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dusk on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by dusk on 2014-06-30.
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I will get an a or a- in government for the quarter ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by cobalt on 2014-06-06; known on 2014-07-06; judged wrong by cobalt on 2014-06-30.
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I will live through the end of sophomore year. ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-31; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-30.
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My ia remediation is successful on the first try. ( 90% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-22; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-30.
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Martin Schulz will be the next president of the european commision. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nyabhingi on 2014-05-12; known on 2014-06-30; judged wrong by nyabhingi on 2014-06-30.
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This prediction will not post successfully. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mavant on 2014-06-30; known on 2014-06-30; judged wrong by mavant on 2014-06-30.
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Predictionbook allows decimal percentages in predictions. ( 9% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mavant on 2014-06-30; known on 2014-06-30; judged wrong by mavant on 2014-06-30.
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The MTG set M15 will include all or some of the M10/M11/M12/M13 dual lands and/or their Innistrad block counterparts. (aka the “checklands”.) ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-11; known on 2014-07-11; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-06-28.
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MTG: There will be an enemy colored dual land printed in a core set within the next three years. (In M15, M16, or M17.) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2014-05-27; known on 2016-07-17; judged right by ygert on 2014-06-28.
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My website austingwalters.com will have 18 email subscribers by July 15 (currently at 10) ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2014-06-19; known on 2014-07-15; judged right by lettergram on 2014-06-27.
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My funding campaign for a website in Irish will do horribly. ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-03-31; known on 2014-05-30; judged right by lettergram on 2014-06-27.
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I'll receive strait A's next semester. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-02; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-06-27.
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Alex will tell me that I will be promoted in December, conditional upon fulfilling Kiran's requests. ( 30% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-25; known on 2014-06-26; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-25.
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Config (short for configuration) will appear in the Merriam Webster dictionary as proper word ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-06-24; known on 2014-06-24; judged wrong by Glenn on 2014-06-24.
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I will finish Chapter 3 of Hartl's Rails Tutorial tomorrow before midnight. ( 90% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-21; known on 2014-06-22; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-06-23.
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I will take part in the play saturday. ( 90% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-20; known on 2014-06-22; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-06-22.
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I will have done a walk with at least 200 meters of climb, at least 3 times, by the end of 2014, carrying 30kg of weights. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-04-29; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by waveman on 2014-06-22.
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There will be a referendum on Scottish independence ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-09; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by scav on 2014-09-14.
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Duck Enlightenment (@jokeocracy) will be unbanned from twitter ( 24% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2014-06-15; known on 2014-12-14; judged right by Grognor on 2014-06-20.
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I will have finished the Lesswrong main sequences by June 11th 2014. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-25; known on 2014-06-11; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-06-20.