PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

There will be a referendum on Scottish independence ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by modulus on 2012-01-09; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by scav on 2014-09-14.

There will be a referendum on Scottish independence ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by modulus on 2012-01-09; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by scav on 2014-09-14.

Russia annexes Crimea this year. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by lettergram on 2014-03-03; known on 2015-03-03; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-06-17.

Dogecoin will be worth more than 1000 Satoshis ($0.00755000) by June 2014 (At 3 Jan 2014 bitcoin prices) ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2014-01-03; known on 2014-06-17; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-06-17.

Dogecoin will be worth less than 40 Satoshis ($0.00036240) at June 2014. (At 3 Jan 2014 bitcoin prices) ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2014-01-03; known on 2014-06-17; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-06-17.

There will be a referendum on Scottish independence ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by modulus on 2012-01-09; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by scav on 2014-09-14.

I will get 90% or above on next week's neurobio quiz ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-14; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-06-15.

I will get 90% or above on next week's neurobio quiz ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-14; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-06-15.

Gamespot: Steam Box To Make Life Difficult for Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo in 2013 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by dk on 2014-06-15.

I will get out of work by 2:15pm today ( 80% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-13; known on 2014-06-13; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-06-15.

There will be a referendum on Scottish independence ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by modulus on 2012-01-09; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by scav on 2014-09-14.

“Barring an unexpected decline in human numbers from current levels, biodiversity will not reverse its downward trend, air and water pollution will not reverse their increasing trends,(all according to World Resources Institute data) and the WHO will not ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Grognor on 2014-06-15.

Konkvistador has obstructive sleep apnea ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-21; known on 2013-10-21; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-06-15.

I will give myself a two on at least one of my journals. ( 80% confidence )

Created by cobalt on 2014-06-10; known on 2014-06-17; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-14.

Sid Meier's Civilization TBG : Game designer will rulethat it is impossible to switch governments many times during SoT using pyramids while gaining each SoT benefits ( 95% confidence )

Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Osuniev on 2014-06-13.

Half Life 3 will be announced at the next E3 convention. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kindrapring on 2014-03-18; known on 2014-06-12; judged wrong by kindrapring on 2014-06-13.

The title of the next song on my playlist will not contain the word “Ghost” or “Ghosts” ( 50% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2014-06-13; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-06-12.

The title of the next song on my playlist will not contain the word “Ghost” or “Ghosts” (part 3) ( 60% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2014-06-13; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-06-12.

The title of the next song on my playlist will not contain the word “Ghost” or “Ghosts” ( 65% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2014-06-13; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-06-12.

The next song in alphabetical order after “Ghost”, by Evol Intent, will not have the word “Ghost” or “Ghosts” in the title. ( 75% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2014-06-12; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-06-12.

I will get a call tomorrow, from anyone. ( 18% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-11; known on 2014-06-12; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-06-12.

I will not turn in my IA remediation until after the weekend. ( 55% confidence )

Created by cobalt on 2014-06-05; known on 2014-06-12; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-10.

I will turn in my English essay on time ( 75% confidence )

Created by cobalt on 2014-06-09; known on 2014-06-11; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-10.

I will finish the equivalent of second year physics by end 3q 2014 Specifically I will have done the exercises from the special relativity, electromagnetism and thermal physics texts. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-09-30; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-11-02.

A randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant has bare feet at 6:40PM. ( 60% confidence )

Created by etarletons on 2014-06-09; known on 2014-06-08; judged right by etarletons on 2014-06-09.

At least one rather major online (or print) media outlet would cover the miserable hotness of the June 4th Rolling Stones concert in Israel. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Neznans on 2014-06-04; known on 2014-06-11; judged right by Neznans on 2014-06-09.

At least one rather major online (or print) media outlet would cover the miserable hotness of the June 4th Rolling Stones concert in Israel with an article titled using a bad pun regarding TRS and the weather. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Neznans on 2014-06-04; known on 2014-06-11; judged right by Neznans on 2014-06-09.

Pops: “Someone will die on the concert” (The Rolling Stones Tel-Aviv 2014 concert) ( 6% confidence )

Created by Neznans on 2014-06-04; known on 2014-06-11; judged wrong by Neznans on 2014-06-09.

I will weight less than 70kg by mid 2014 Currently 77k ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by waveman on 2014-06-09.

My physics final was misgraded, or the grade was entered wrong. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by azax1 on 2014-05-23; known on 2014-05-30; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-06-09.

I will not get into college off a waitlist. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by azax1 on 2014-05-23; known on 2014-06-22; judged right by azax1 on 2014-06-09.

Peter will eat dinner with his parents tonight. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-06-07; known on 2014-06-08; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-06-09.

A randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant can remember another randomly chosen participant's name. ( 75% confidence )

Created by etarletons on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-09; judged right by etarletons on 2014-06-09.

A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2014-06-08; 76% —David Dalrymple ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2014-06-08; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-06-08.

Gangnam Style (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0) will have 2 billion views by the end of 2014. ( 82% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by dk on 2014-06-08.

Hannah will pass but not pass advance on her algebra SOL. ( 75% confidence )

Created by cobalt on 2014-05-23; known on 2014-06-20; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-08.

A randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant has written a complete work of fiction. ( 45% confidence )

Created by etarletons on 2014-06-07; known on 2014-06-07; judged wrong by etarletons on 2014-06-08.

My program will work as I expect it to this time. ( 60% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-08; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-08.

My program will work as I expect it to. ( 65% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-08.

1 USD will be worth more than 120 ripples. (that is the price of ripples will drop to 120 or more per $1) by/on the 7th of June 2014. Making this to remind myself of a bet for 50 gbp with a friend. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tenoke on 2013-06-07; known on 2014-06-07; judged right by Tenoke on 2014-06-08.

I will want to go back to confessional. ( 75% confidence )

Created by cobalt on 2014-06-07; known on 2014-06-14; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-07.

I will go to confessional tomorrow. ( 85% confidence )

Created by cobalt on 2014-06-07; known on 2014-06-08; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-07.

A randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant is married. ( 15% confidence )

Created by etarletons on 2014-06-07; known on 2014-06-06; judged wrong by etarletons on 2014-06-07.

One randomly selected CFAR workshop participant will hold a non-USA citizenship ( 25% confidence )

Created by etarletons on 2014-06-06; known on 2014-06-13; judged right by etarletons on 2014-06-07.

The USA's labour force participation rate will not increase in May. ( 65% confidence )

Created by wraith on 2014-05-28; known on 2014-06-07; judged right by wraith on 2014-06-07.

Bob Ellis: “Abbott Will Be Overthrown In The Next Nine Days” ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2014-05-28; known on 2014-06-06; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2014-06-06.

I will get a pass advanced on my chemistry sol. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by cobalt on 2014-06-03; known on 2014-06-04; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-06.

Brayden's gift is edible ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by yaliceme on 2014-06-02; known on 2014-06-04; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2014-06-04.

43a4c3b7d0a0654e1919ad6e7cbfa6f8d41bcce8f1320fbe511b6d7c38609ce5a2d39328e02e9777b339152987ea02b3f8adb57d84377fa7ccb708658b7d2edc ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-03; known on 2014-06-03; judged right by gwern on 2014-06-03.

HPMoR: Harry will bring Hermione back to life. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Thelvyn on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by booradleytron on 2015-03-31.

Statistics

Judged Predictions