PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

There will be a major terrorist attack (>= 60 deaths) between 2011-09-10 20:00 UTC and 2011-09-12 06:00 UTC anywhere in the world except Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Iraq. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2011-09-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-12.

There will be a major terrorist attack (>= 60 deaths) between 2011-09-10 20:00 UTC and 2011-09-12 06:00 UTC anywhere in the world except Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Iraq. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2011-09-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-12.

I will find and contact the real recipient of a Fedex package that was incorrectly delivered to my address ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2011-09-11; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-11.

I will fix the bug that caused the broken HTML in http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2856 today ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-09; known on 2011-09-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10.

OB-NYC: Zvi Mowshowitz asked that question of Salience because he hated Valhalla Rising. ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-08; known on 2011-09-15; judged right by gwern on 2011-09-08.

NGE: Asuka will die in Stage 86 or 87 of the manga. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-07.

I will be killed or more than slightly injured skydiving for the first time Saturday ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2011-09-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-03.

We will be using a cloud based rendering solution for animations in under 2 months ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-09-02; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-09-02.

Greece will default on its debt before 2011-09-01 00:00 UTC ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-19; known on 2011-09-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-02.

“Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 10750 on 31 Aug 2011” —Intrade ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-09-01; judged right by Serge on 2011-09-01.

A Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon's diary either as a quote or written by Bacon. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-01.

“Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 12250 on 31 Aug 2011” —Intrade ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-08-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-31.

My DNS provider migration for 6 domains will not cause any downtime (incl. web and email), where downtime is caused by a misconfiguration on my part ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-25; known on 2011-08-28; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-30.

Mourinho's fear over Barcelona will make him leave Real Madrid in this season. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2011-08-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-30.

Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 September 2011 ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-10-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-30.

Either of my haiku will win the ANN contest (either as top-ranked haiku or as the randomly selected entry) ( 1% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2011-08-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-30.

My house will lose power when Hurricane Irene hits. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-27; known on 2011-08-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-29.

My house will lose water when Hurricane Irene hits. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-27; known on 2011-08-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-29.

My apartment will not lose power during Hurricane Irene. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-26; known on 2011-09-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-29.

Either of my haiku will make the top 25 of the ANN contest ( 7% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2011-08-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-26.

Mike Darwin will post part 4 of his diet series before or during Wednesday (EST). ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-21; known on 2011-08-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-25.

HPMOR will update again by October 20th ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-17; known on 2011-10-21; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-25.

A scene release group will release a cracked (or crack for) Deus Ex: Human Revolution (PC) before 2011-08-25 00:00 UTC ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2011-08-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-25.

“Steve Jobs to depart as CEO of Apple before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 9% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-24.

Despite the warning of International Rivers Network (IRN), Laos will keep building Xayaburi hydroelectric dam on Mekong River. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by minhduc on 2011-04-24; known on 2011-08-24; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 16 ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 15 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 14 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 13 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 12 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 11 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 10 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 9 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 8 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 6 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 5 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 3 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 2 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Adderall: day 1 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Deus Ex 3's North America release will be pushed back past August 23, 2011 (release for one platform counts as release) ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-18; known on 2011-08-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-23.

Darwin's employer was Charles Simonyi ( 2% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Darwin's employer was Peter Thiel. ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Darwin's employer was Bezos. ( 4% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Darwin's employer was either Bezos, Thiel, or Simonyi. ( 9% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.

Darwin's employer was one of the 6 named billionaires. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.

A Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon's diary either as a quote or written by Bacon. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-01.

A Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon's diary either as a quote or written by Bacon. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-01.

A Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon's diary either as a quote or written by Bacon. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-01.

A Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon's diary either as a quote or written by Bacon. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-01.

Roger Ver will not create a Longbets about his Bitcoin>gold/silver prediction within a month. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-08; known on 2011-09-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-21.

Statistics

Judged Predictions