Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of August 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] August 2018 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-09-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-09.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] under $40 ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jun-Jul-Aug 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-09-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jun-Jul-Aug 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jun-Jul-Aug 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-05.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for July 2019 to exceed 50% ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-09-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-05.
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Robert Mueller to testify publicly before Congress before 2020 ( 66% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-04.
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HP MoR: Harry will steal the Philosopher's Stone at some point ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2019-09-03.
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ASOIAF : Wbua Fabj unf Gnetnelra oybbq naq qbrf abg ohea sebz qentbaf ( 42% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-09-03.
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heuer[/url][/b] heuer[/url][/b] heuer replica[/url][/b] heuer carrera[/url] ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by coetschisid on 2015-11-24; known on 2015-11-24; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-09-03.
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The Hong Kong protests will have a turnout exceeding 1 million people on Saturday, August 31 2019. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-08-31; known on 2019-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-03.
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Brexit will successfully have take place by August 2019 ( 32% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Finma on 2018-03-03; known on 2019-01-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-02.
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Chinese government to limit or tax exports of rare earths to the US by 2019-08-30 ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-08-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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US to conduct nuclear weapons test by 2019-08-30 ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-08-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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OPEC to have more than 14 members at August 2019 EOM ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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OPEC to have fewer than 14 members at August 2019 EOM ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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OPEC to have exactly 14 members at August 2019 EOM ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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Indonesia to be a member of OPEC at August 2019 EOM ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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Harley-Davidson to release its electric motorcycle (Project Livewire) as scheduled in August 2019 ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-09-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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Qatar to be a member of OPEC at August 2019 EOM ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in August for which data are published ( 57% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-09-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through August EOM ( 88% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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Prime minister Boris Johnson ( 37% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2019-08-31.
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“May still in power” ( 38% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2019-08-31.
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Charlottesville car driver shown to be on legally prescribeable medication (such as SSRIs) ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-08-31.
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Person sitting next to me will still be staring at phone in half an hour. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wizzwizz4 on 2019-08-26; known on 2019-08-26; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-08-26.
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Josh Sokol-Rubenstein can correctly recall the hooks for LABELLA, GLABELLA, and FLABELLA in OSPD5 tournament Scrabble, upon seeing this prediction in 2 years. ( 45% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-08-23; known on 2019-08-23; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2019-08-25.
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Another Nazi-punching college incident will occur this year. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by burning.harvest on 2019-08-25.
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there will be a non-hype blackpoolhotelgate (non-hype being roughly that the customers are unhappy about things not being run well/the owner being incompetent, and not including [only people uninvolved discoursing about it]) ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Somni on 2018-08-23; known on 2019-08-22; judged wrong by Somni on 2019-08-24.
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Treasury bonds yield ends lower for the day after Powell delivers Jackson Hole speech ( 65% confidence )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-08-22; known on 2019-08-23; judged right by batemancapital on 2019-08-23.
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Boris Johnson to become Prime Minister by the next Conservative Party conference ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-08-23.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for July 2019 to exceed 110 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-08-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-23.
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Soyuz MS-14 to launch as scheduled on August 22, 2019 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-15; known on 2019-08-22; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-22.
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I will still think Ouroboros is a bad design in six months ( 70% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by enolan on 2019-08-21.
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sha256 b7ef0c292e294fa4a8a61db591b60d35b5afa21260c3b2e7a9c0c4da45b675f3 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2019-08-17; known on 2019-08-17; judged wrong by Somni on 2019-08-17.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2019-08-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-08-16.
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[Politics] At least one Democrat to withdraw/suspend candidacy by August 2019 EOM ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-08-31; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-16.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2019 ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-08-14.
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The predictionbook user 'Cato' will NOT be active here (less than 1 wage/week) by Aug 10th, 2019 (3 months later). ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by minerjamon on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-08-10; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-08-12.
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Gold hit above $1500/oz at least once in 2019 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by objclone on 2019-06-20; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by objclone on 2019-08-12.
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Fed cut rate at least 25bps in July ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by objclone on 2019-06-18; known on 2019-07-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-08-11.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of July 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] July 2018 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-08-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-08.